How appeal court verdict against Le Pen puts her back in the running for 2027

Despite maintaining the guilty verdict against Le Pen, Tuesday's ruling by the Paris court of appeal worked in the politician's favour. 

It shortened a ban on public office that would have kept the leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) – formerly the National Front – out of next year's presidential election and cleared the path for a second appeal that effectively puts her sentence on hold.

Le Pen was convicted last year of participating in a fake jobs scam at the European Parliament which saw more than €2.8 million of EU funds fraudulently diverted to the RN's coffers between 2004 and 2016.

A lower court had sentenced her to a four-year prison sentence, a fine of €100,000 and, crucially, a five-year ban from public office.

Effective from March 2025, it would have put the 2027 election definitively out Le Pen's reach.

But the appeals court this week shortened the ban to 15 months – plus 30 suspended – starting from her conviction. That period expired at the beginning of this month.

Le Pen, who had been preparing her protégé Jordan Bardella to stand in her place, announced her candidacy the same evening. 

Le Pen confirms presidential bid after Paris appeals court upholds conviction

House arrest

The biggest legal obstacle that remains is Le Pen's custodial sentence.

The appeals court shortened it from four years to three, with two suspended. The remaining year can be served under house arrest, with an electronic ankle monitor.

That sentence would severely limit Le Pen's movements, with a judge's approval required to travel or even leave her home outside designated times. 

Before the ruling, Le Pen indicated she would not run for president under house arrest, telling the LCI news channel: "I can't be dependent on a judge to authorise me to go hold a campaign rally... or to visit a market."

Yet Le Pen, who denies any wrongdoing, has announced that she will appeal her conviction again in France's highest court, the Court of Cassation, which has the power to uphold the verdict definitively or to order a new trial. 

Until the court rules – which typically takes around a year – her sentence will not be enforced.

"I had said that I would not campaign while wearing an electronic ankle monitor, but since I have the option to appeal... and since an appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends the effects of the ruling, I will therefore campaign without an ankle monitor," Le Pen told broadcaster TF1 after Tuesday's ruling. Marine Le Pen leaves the Paris Court of Appeal on 7 July, after receiving a lighter sentence.

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Legal gamble

The Court of Cassation "may be able to issue its ruling no later than early April 2027", it said in a statement on Wednesday, while cautioning that the timeline depended on multiple factors and could be extended. 

The first round of France's presidential election is set for 18 April, with a run-off on 2 May.

That raises the possibility that, if the court rejected Le Pen's appeal, she could find herself under house arrest at a crucial point in the campaign. 

Her lawyer Rodolphe Bosselut, speaking to Radio France, admitted there was "a risk" that Le Pen's campaign could be disrupted, but said the sentence could be adjusted by the specialised judge responsible for deciding how it is applied.

The process of setting the terms of house arrest and fitting an ankle monitor often takes several months.

Alternatively, if the court orders a new trial, it is unlikely to take place until after the vote.

If she were to be elected president, Le Pen would benefit from immunity from prosecution for as long as she remained in office.

"I'm not playing for time," she told reporters as she kicked off her campaign in the Loire town of La Flèche on Wednesday. 

Le Pen's opponents argue the embezzlement charges should disqualify her, if not legally then morally. Socialist MP Boris Vallaud called her "a delinquent" – while centrist presidential candidate Édouard Philippe pointed out that Le Pen has previously called for politicians convicted of corruption to be barred from holding office "for life".