Ben Ephson predicts 'one-touch' victory for Mahama

Editor of the Daily Dispatch newspaper and pollster Ben Ephson has released a research finding predicting a 'one-touch' victory for incumbent President John Dramani Mahama.

According to the poll, the governing National Democratic Candidate (NDC) presidential candidate would garner 52.4 percent of the votes while his main rival Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) would get 45.9 percent.

The other five presidential candidates are not expected to contribute more than 1.7 percent, the survey results say.

The NDC candidate John Mahama polled 50.63 percent in 2012 presidential elections.

According to Ben Ephson's poll, President John Mahama will do better than his first presidential election results, but a study of past elections shows that no sitting president has performed better in his re-election than his first term.

In 1992 then NDC candidate Jerry John Rawlings polled 58.4 percent and 1996, he got 57.4 percent in his re-election victory.

The NPP candidate John Kufuor won by 56.9 percent in 2000 to become president but obtained 52.45 percent in his re-election bid.

The results released by the senior journalist is the last of six opinion polls he has published since May 2016. In all six polls, the NDC has led. It is only in November that the victory according to Mr Ephson inches above 50 percent.

Ghana's electoral system requires that the winner must have 50 percent plus one, failure of which triggers a second round between the two leading candidates.

Ghana last went for a run-off in 2000 and 2008 elections, a prospect which the main rivals, the NPP and NDC are keen to avoid in 2016.

So far, out of three polls published in the media, only Mr Ephson's poll has predicted a Mahama victory.

Ben Ephson
The others by the UK-based Economic Intelligence Unit and political scientists from the University of Ghana have backed the NPP to win the elections.

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