The Coming Nigerian Civil War Between Ijaws And Hausa-Fulanis

Some may think it's malaria fever, side talks or rants from drunks. Maybe to some extent, yet no longer a secret. It's rather all over Nigerian media that the Ijaw ethnic group represented by its militants, though misnamed "Niger delta militants" and some Hausa-Fulani politicians have recently been making threats of war or the disintegration of Nigeria. Although peaceful disintegration will serve right the 300 ethnic nations or more that formed Nigeria against the wishes of many, thus grant them relieve to form their different countries or form certain number of countries based on mutual understanding and agreement. Considering events of the past three weeks it seems the Ijaws and Hausa-Fulanis are sharpening their war propaganda and actual machines in a showdown that may start from 2015 upward.

It may be recalled that the original threats were made toward Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, who is an Ijaw-Kalabari president of Nigeria and his Ijaw people, by some Northerners: the Arewa Consultative Forum of Northern Nigeria and former military dictator Mahammadu Buhari. The Buhari effect couldn't bear the out-rigging blows and pains received from Dr. Jonathan and his loyalists during the 2011 presidential selection, which saw Jonathan as Nigerian president. As the media have it, Buhari said not too long ago after being linked with Boko Haram, that there will be bloodshed or bloodbath in the country if Hausa-Fulani person or a Northerner isn't the president of Nigeria in the 2015 presidential selection and Jonathan continues. After his threats and those of others from the North no calls were made for Buhari et al to be arrested.

Following Buhari's rants and threats some Ijaws and particularly a militant, Asari Dokubo made it plain on television and newspapers, including Online that, there shall be bloodshed in Nigeria. Furthermore, he said Nigeria will be history if he's arrested based on his speeches and threats at Northerners whereas no one called for Buhari and other Northerners' arrest. He then said Jonathan must return and complete his second term after the 2015 election, whether via election or none; that no Hausa-Fulani person will ever be president of Nigeria again. Of all these threats it seems none of those making them consider the interests and rights of the people to be free and safe; live in a peaceful and conducive environment and their right to vote for a leader of their choice. They all talk as though the Nigerian rigging Trademark and imposition is the answer.

We also know that the 2011 presidential selection Buhari and other Hausas believed they're out-rigged brought about the severity of the terrorist group Boko Haram, which crimes have been egregious like in certain manners the Nigeria military ordered by Jonathan brutalized and killed some of them. Boko Haram also made its threats, including a demand that Nigeria be Islamized. That is as an Islamic nation where the full force of Sharia law shall apply to everyone irrespective of your religious or otherwise belief. These back and forth threats have echoed and reechoed the drums of the coming civil war moving toward 2015 and beyond. What should be made clear here, however, is that although Ijaw ethnic group, especially its Dr. Jonathan's-backed militants are Niger deltans, they're arrogating the name "Niger delta" when making these threats without due consultations with other members of the Niger delta geo-economic and political region. No gainsaying the fact that the media also hypes this misnomer 'Niger delta militants' instead of Ijaw militants. A section of these militants recently demanded the conveyance of a Sovereign National Conference (SNC) as media reports have it.

This SNC also known as Ethnic Nationality Conference (ENC) is expected to pull all the groups forced at gunpoint to be part of Nigeria by the British and some members of the so-called major ethnic groups (Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, Igbo and Ijaw) to converge, discuss and re-chart the possible continuous existence of Nigeria or its disintegration. As the Ijaw militant threat suggests, it shall be in the event that Jonathan fears being defeated in the 2015 selection or under any kind of pressure from the North and their Southern allies not to run for second term and emerge president. Note is worth taking here that Jonathan is reported to be considering this militant threat-based SNC, hence a publication on several Online blogs credited to him saying, he isn't afraid of a SNC, even though his previous reactions were simply silence. It's safe to state that said SNC now backed for the first time by a Nigerian president whose militants are responsible for such call is a calculatively touting proposal aimed at twisting the hands of Hausa-Fulanis or Northerners and others who may not want Jonathan to run for a second term. The SNC could also be invoked where there appears to be suspected enemy mechanisms capable of causing confusion or out-rigging Jonathan as a payback for 2011.

By these facts and pointers, though dirty political calculations it seems, the drums of war are heating up and beating steadily toward 2015, but will only become real where these war and disintegration architechs demonstrate seriousness. Importantly, before this war really starts, if at all and both parties don't chicken-out. The Ijaws and their militants and Jonathan must be clear and honestly state that they're going to war with Hausas-Fulani and not that Niger delta region is or will be going to war as reports tend to suggest. Of course, the name Ijaw ethnic group or Ijaw militants has been conspicuously missing from media reports, whereas it's this group that is making these threats. There has to be clarity and specificity because the proposed war must be different from the 1967 to 1970 so-called Nigerian-Biafran Civil War.
The experiences of the forced and oppressed nations of Nigeria such as Ogoni, Orhobo, Ikwerre and Itsekiri, even Igbo, Ibibios, Yoruba and others have gone past 1967, and they will be in 2015 when this possible war might take off. Those involved in the coming war must therefore declare themselves and territories and those not involved, will also declare not to be part of the war, yet may appear at any forum called to make their stance clear and take a leave of absence from whatever discussion, hence the country before any war and shall maintain such absence for the rest of existence.

This takes me to the point that, borrowing from the first civil war no Nigerian group should make the mistake of eyeing other nationalities wealth or land, thus declare distinct nations which decides not to be involved in the war or any proposed strife as part of their factions without due consultations, discussions and agreed upon document which may include possible constitution or treaty as to their roles and fate when the war or strife ends. Consequently, Ijaws and their militants must understand that Niger delta isn't one small Ijaw village, community or ethnic nationality like most Americans think or believe Africa is a country, whereas it's a continent of 54 countries. It should be noted therefore that, Ijaws aren't the owners or embodiment of Niger delta; thus Niger delta doesn't imply Ijaw, rather a collection of precolonial independent nations. Niger delta is a region, which has more than 30 ethnic nationalities spreading over vast land. These peoples are so different and unique that they speak different languages and have varying cultures, and also have distinct territories as precolonial nations. As such no Ijaw person, militant group or the Ijaw ethnic group has been nominated, mandated or commissioned by Niger deltans: Orhobos, Itsekiris, Ogonis, Ikwerres, Ndonis, etc. to speak on their behalves. These diiferent Niger delta groups which include the Ijaws have different interests, and such interests must be respected, while consent sought for cooperation.

Let me reiterate that Niger delta is a vast geo-economic and political region with distinct nationalities, which yearnings and aspirations are different despite the common realities of the core oil-bearing ethnic nations. While the threats and hand-twisting SNC may do some good or place opponents, particularly Northern politicians such as former vice president Atiku Abubakar, Mohammadu Buhari and their allies such as Chibuike Amaechi of Rivers State as media reports have it, to slowdown or the country face war or peaceful disintegration. It's hoped that using broad names such as Niger delta without due consultations with distinct nations that makes up the region, the same method Ojukwu and his warlords applied during Biafra-Nigerian Civil War will be discountenanced. It's broad assumptions or lack of consultations before believing a region such as Niger delta shall be fully behind the Ijaws if they push for war or disintegration as recent misguided statements that primarily cost the Igbos their bid to secede from Nigeria. The expectation today is that Nigerians have been taught some smart lessons regarding the rights of precolonial nations such as Ogoni and the declaration of war.

Being specific and categorical in declaring that the Ijaws and their militants or other groups are calling for peaceful resolution of current political impasse, possible war or peaceful disintegration through said conference Jonathan never wanted until now he feels pressured, thus loosing political steam that never was, is the right thing to do. Generalization of regional involvements is obviously the wrong way to go. Honesty and specificity will conduce to respect for other ethnic nations, peace and understandable collaboration where the need arises. The consequences for Biafra eye over so-called minority ethnic groups' oil and land in then Eastern region without respecting and inviting these groups for talks, strategies and post-war interest, benefits should suffice as warning signal.

Finally, according to media reports BAYELSA, which is Ijaw-Jonathan's state already hoisted its flag and declared autonomy in 2012, even though more than 94 percent of the 36 states in Nigeria have political and ethnic autonomy due to the fact that these states are created on ethnic basis. So, should these threat become real with Jonathan's support, or if the SNC convened due to general or majority acceptance resulting also from these threats, or by force to discuss and find lasting solutions to the mistake of 1914 (Nigeria). Then the conclusion becomes disintegration that is more likely, it may not be unconnected with the preplanned BAYELSA declaration. This could mean also that the probability for the coming war is higher where peaceful disintegration that may follow the 2015 presidential selection, which Ogonis have threatened or vowed to boycott to show they aren't happy with Jonathan and Nigeria fails. It's proper to point out that Jonathan and Nigeria ignored the UNEP report on Ogoni and allowing the people suffocate in hydrocarbon-charged, polluted and degraded environment thus dying exponentially.

Meanwhile, the alternative to war and forceful, bloody and bitter or even peaceful disintegration is, if the groups making these threats chicken-out, and this is also more like. Or a mutual understanding, which should serve everyone and groups' interest is reached between December 2013 and six months to selection/election day or at the SNC, which Saro-Wiwa and other Nigerians have been killed for daring to peacefully and intellectually demand so as to renegotiate the Nigerian contraption forced to the throats of most ethnic nations. This understanding shall cause The People's Constitution, which shall grant true federalism and allows proper resource exploration, management and control (usher in proper democracy) to flourish contrary to present national and institutional rape and theft of ethnic minority nations' wealth by Nigeria and its rulers, which makes these war or disintegration drums even louder.