West Africa's Defence Spending Climbs, but Insecurity Is Moving Faster

How the 2026 budgets across the sub-region compare with a threat that no longer stops at the Sahel.

The big picture. African military spending is rising. SIPRI reports that spending in Africa grew for a third straight year to $58.2 billion in 2025, with sub-Saharan Africa at $23.3 billion, up 7.4%. West Africa's own picture is uneven.

Nigeria now accounts for only 22% of the sub-region's military spending, down from 45% a decade ago, while the Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger) accounts for 28%, up from 14%.

Nigeria: the record that inflation erodes. Nigeria approved ₦3.16 trillion ($2.10 billion) for defence in FY2026, a nominal record. But about 76% goes to pay and allowances, which leaves little for equipment and operations.

The AES states: high burden, poor returns. As a share of GDP, Burkina Faso (4.68%) and Mali (4.20%) are among the world's heaviest spenders, with Niger at 2.24%. Yet in April 2026, JNIM and Tuareg separatists launched a wave of attacks in Mali, and a suicide bomber killed the defence minister.

Ghana: a late catch-up. One estimate says Ghana's 2026 defence allocation rose 69% to GH¢10.77 billion for a retooling programme, although defence still amounts to about 0.38% of GDP. I found the 69% figure in only one secondary source, so confirm it against the Ministry of Finance 2026 budget statement.

The coastal frontline: Benin, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire. These states face the fastest-growing threat with modest budgets. Togo's military spending is roughly $205–213 million, and Côte d'Ivoire's is about $658–682 million. Côte d'Ivoire is relying on partners.

In February 2026 the EU transferred 40 specialist military vehicles to its forces, and it held the Touraco 2026 exercise with France. Benin reportedly raised defence spending 18% to CFA118 billion in 2025 and launched a five-year plan

Senegal and the Atlantic west. Senegal's draft 2026 budget for the Armed Forces ministry is 437.9 billion FCFA in commitment authorisations and 338.4 billion FCFA in payment credits. I found no reliable 2026 figures for Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau or Cabo Verde. SIPRI's database is the place to check them.

Insecurity across the sub-region
Benin: jihadist-linked deaths rose from 58 in 2023 to at least 575 in 2025. In March 2026, an attack on the Koufouno army base killed 15 soldiers.

Nigeria: JNIM recorded its first attack on Nigerian soil on 29 October 2025, in Kwara State. ACLED describes a single, interconnected conflict environment from Mali to western Nigeria.

Ghana and Togo: analysts warn JNIM and ISSP now threaten Togo, Benin, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, and Ghana's top priority is ending the Bawku violence.

Maritime: the EU runs Gulf of Guinea programmes covering coastal states from Senegal to Nigeria, reflecting piracy and trafficking risks.

The regional response. ECOWAS has agreed to build a 1,650-strong anti-terrorism brigade by the end of 2026 and gave US$2.85 million to each of Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo. That sum is small against the scale of the threat.

Conclusion. Spending is up, but it is not buying security. Wages absorb most budgets, the Sahel juntas spend heavily and still lose ground, and the coastal states spend the least where the threat is advancing.

Priorities should shift to border surveillance, intelligence-sharing, mobility and community trust, backed by a working ECOWAS-AES channel.

Mustapha Bature Sallama
Medical/ Science Communicator,
Private Investigator, Criminal Investigation and Intelligence Analysis,
International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding. (USIP)
[email protected]
+233555275880

References
SIPRI, Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025 (April 2026). https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2025 and https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/2604_milex_2025.pdf

IISS, "Nigeria's 2026 defence budget: stretched between instability and inflation" (May 2026). https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2026/05/nigerias-2026-defence-budget-stretched-between-instability-and-inflation/

Military Africa, "Nigeria's Defence Budget Hits Record High, but Inflation Eats the Gains." https://www.military.africa/2026/06/nigerias-defence-budget-hits-record-high-but-inflation-eats-the-gains/

WorldStats, "Countries with the Highest Military Spending in Africa (2026)." https://worldstats.io/rankings/highest-military-spending/africa

GlobalMilitary.net, "Ghana Military Forces." https://www.globalmilitary.net/countries/gha/

Trading Economics, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire military expenditure. https://tradingeconomics.com/togo/military-expenditure and https://tradingeconomics.com/ivory-coast/military-expenditure

APS via AllAfrica, "Sénégal: Budget 2026 – Une enveloppe de plus 437 milliards FCFA pour le ministère des Forces armées." https://fr.allafrica.com/stories/202512070012.html

Ecofin Agency, "Benin lifts defense spending 18% to CFA118 bln in 2025, launches 5-year plan." https://www.ecofinagency.com/news/0409-48422-benin-lifts-defense-spending-18-to-cfa118-bln-in-2025-launches-5-year-plan

AFRIDEX, "Côte d'Ivoire Builds the Next Generation of Defence Capability" (Aug 2026). https://www.afridex.com/articles/industry-news/2026/august/cote-divoire-builds-the-next-generation-of-defence-capability/

AllAfrica, "West Africa: Sahel – ECOWAS Anti-Terrorism Brigade" (Jan 2026). https://allafrica.com/stories/202601150553.html

Nextier via The Guardian (Nigeria), on Benin fatalities. https://guardian.ng/news/nigeria/metro/jihadists-expansion-into-benin-republic-threatens-nigerias-security-nextier/

Russian International Affairs Council, on the Koufouno attack; corroborated by Africanews (6 March 2026). https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/columns/african-policy/benin-s-northern-crisis-can-the-government-contain-jnim-s-expansion/ and https://africanews.com/2026/03/06/15-soldiers-killed-in-jihadist-attack-in-northern-benin

Folahanmi Aina, "Nigeria's new terror threat: JNIM is spreading." https://eastleighvoice.co.ke/insecurity%20nigeria-nigeria%20military/242134/nigeria-s-new-terror-threat-jnim-is-spreading-but-it-s-not-too-late-to-act

ACLED 2026 Conflict Watchlist, via Africa Insider. https://www.africaninsider.com/?p=169094

Counter Extremism Project, "Sahel Monitoring, August 2025." https://www.counterextremism.com/blog/sahel-monitoring-august-2025

EU Gulf of Guinea maritime security programmes map (Nov 2025). https://expertisefrance.fr/sites/expertise/files/2025-11/map_eu_gulf_of_guinea_24nov25_en.pdf

Mali's April 2026 attacks: a secondary summary (https://m.douweosinga.com/projects/the_world_this_wiki/organizations/jnim). Verify against Reuters, AFP or the BBC.