U.S. 2026 Midterm Election: Which Party Will Win?

On November 3, 2026, the United States will hold its midterm election to elect members of Congress. The election will decide which party will control Congress. Presently, the Republican Party controls the House and the Senate. This paper examines the election activities to suggest which party could win the House, Senate, or both.

Before we begin, it helps to review some historical facts about midterm elections in America. In past elections, the ruling party has lost the midterm elections. But that does not mean that it will lose the presidency. Some presidents whose party lost the midterm went on to win re-election. For example, Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party lost both houses in the 1994 Midterm election. However, he won re-election. The same happened with Barack Obama in 2010, though the Democrats barely retained the Senate.

The Midterm Election is easier than the presidential contest. The former focuses on popular vote, while the latter depends on Electoral College votes. A presidential candidate could win the popular vote and lose the election if he/she received fewer than 270 Electoral College votes. The Midterm Election is held every two years. The presidential election is every four years. However, both require a primary election first.

Although President Donald Trump is not on the ballot in this election and will not seek re-election in 2028, he remains an important factor because this election is a referendum on him. The economy under Trump’s second term has performed poorly. Inflation has increased, and the cost of living has risen significantly. For instance, according to Ben Werschkul of AOL, “coffee prices have risen nearly 23% during Trump's second term [more than double the rate under Biden]”. Moreover, the American war with Iran has hurt the US economy, as gas prices have surged. Consequently, trump’s net approval has decreased. Now, according to the polls, including 50 Plus One and the New York Times, his net approval is -27, the lowest in US presidential history, even worse than Harry Truman’s 33% in 1946. In other words, Trump has the lowest approval rate in a midterm election and “is the most unpopular American president” since the beginning of approval ratings in the US.

In the 1946 Midterm Election, the Republican Party took control of Congress. Though Truman surprisingly defeated Republican candidate Governor Thomas Dewey in the following election, the Democratic Party lost the next elections in landslides to Republican Dwight Eisenhower, a World War II general. He defeated Democrat candidate Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson II twice, in 1952 and in 1956. The loss was a terrible blow to the Democratic Party. It ended 20 years of Democratic Party domination of the presidency from 1933 to 1953.

Analysts attributed Truman’s unfavorable approval rating to several factors, importantly his authorization of sending atomic bombs to Japan’s cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The bombs killed an “estimated 150,000 to 246,000 people”, mostly civilians. This was an exercise of weapons of mass destruction, and the American people made the Democratic Party pay for the massacre.

Among Republicans, Trump’s job approval has also decreased. Further, the polls show the Democrats are winning in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Some analysts and pollsters believe the Democrats will win the House. But they are not sure if the Democrats will win the Senate. To win the Senate, the Democrats need to flip four state seats. They are Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas. Texas is very important. It has gone Red (Republican) in past elections. It has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.

Though Democrats lead nationally in early voting, the polls rate Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas as toss-ups. Unlike other states, Texas early voting data do not indicate party affiliation. Therefore, it is difficult to know which party is leading in the Senate race. Texas Democrat senatorial candidate James Talarico’s 3-point lead over Republican rival Ken Paxton is within the margin of error. This means that they are mathematically tied.

Can the polls be trusted? This is a good question. The polls' predictions have not been reliable in past elections. In the 2016 presidential election, they reported that Hillary Clinton was leading Trump. But Trump surprisingly won. The pollsters were stunned. In the 2022 Midterm election during the Biden administration, the polls forecasted a Democratic bloodbath. However, the Democrats did better than expected. In the 2024 presidential election, the polls had Kamala Harris ahead of Trump. Yet Trump won, though the Harris campaign spent about $1.2 billion compared to Trump’s $462,407,174. Further, Republicans do not usually vote heavily in early voting. They do in November when it matters most. The party has spent millions more than the Democratic Party nationally in this election. The spending disparity worries some observers.

The polls wrong reporting started long ago. In the 1948 election, the Roper, Crossley, and the Gallup polls predicted that Dewey would win. Specifically, on Election Day, the Chicago Tribune headline read: “Dewey Defeats Truman”. Truman’s victory is another example of a party losing the midterm Congressional election and winning the presidency two years later. It also indicates that the polls have been wrong in the past.

Nevertheless, analysts think this election is different, saying that, since this September, the polls have been consistent. Voters who did not vote in 2024 say they desire to vote Democrat. Moreover, unlike in 2024, non-White voters favor voting for Democratic candidates.

The key regarding this election, as in other elections, is turnout. The party that turns out its supporters could have a better chance of winning.

Will it matter if the Democrats win the House and lose the Senate? Not really. Though the House initiates legislations, the Senate has more power. It makes or approves laws, confirms presidential appointments, conducts impeachment trials, ratifies treaties, and reviews federal budgets and appropriations.

House members seek re-election every two years, meaning that in this midterm election, every qualified representative is on the ballot. Senators run every six years, either in the midterm or in the presidential and general elections.

If the Democrats win the House, the United States would have an African American Speaker of the House for the first time in American political history. Hakeem Jeffries (D. NY), is currently House Minority leader. He would more likely be selected as the House Speaker. I guess that would matter, for it could encourage more Black political participation in the US.

I will cover the election in my next article.