NDC to Lose Parliamentary Seats in 2028, and Presidency in 2032?

Playing victims and messiahs concurrently in a partisan political arena like Ghana's has never recorded a shortage in the backyard of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). In fact, any political party in Ghana that is serious about winning or sustaining political power must not for even a second underestimate the trickery and grand stratagems that the NPP is unfortunately gifted with and ready at any time to unleash, whether with smiles, anger, or poker-faced.

Anyone looking for evidence to the above observation should go back to count and listen to the number of press conferences so far held by the NPP minority in Parliament since their numerical strength in Parliament was clipped in the December 2024 elections to the size befitting their performance the eight years, they spent in the Jubilee House under the Nana Akuffo Addo and Dr, Mahamudu Bawumia’s administration. Then measure the truthfulness and substance in those press conferences against later findings and their utterances in those eight years each time the microphone is before them in public. It appears by the next general elections; their goal is to have each minority MP take his turn leading a press conference irrespective of the need.

Some in the party today and many that have exited the party have in one way or the other corroborated their self-centered and astronomical sense of entitlement to what belongs to all (the nation), and as if they were naturally ordained and destined to do the citizenry a favor by lording over them in many ways.

Is the National Democratic Congress (NDC) still not aware of the above attributes of the NPP, or are aware but feel protected by the overwhelming number of Parliamentary seats secured in the December 2024 general elections? If the later holds water, then indeed every right-thinking Ghanaian cannot be at fault to draw the conclusion that they are in deep sleep on a delusional comfortable 'incumbency bed' and are gradually edging towards disrespecting the caution of their founder in earnest.

The then spirited Late president Jerry John Rawlings never made a mistake to have chosen one of their landmark political campaign rallies launch to admonish all in the NDC party and Ghanaians the innate characteristics of the NPP as a party. He said,"...the NPP cannot be underestimated, you know it, I know it."

The NDC should remember its unexpected defeat in 2016 despite extensive infrastructure development across the country, particularly in Accra and other regional capitals, they still had to pack out from Jubilee House. That defeat illustrates the cost of complacency when an incumbent party assumes that temporarily reliable electricity, running water, and videos of roads, bridges, and hospitals under construction are enough to keep it in power.

NDC, as a party, must understand that stellar speeches assuring budgetary allocations for planned projects and social interventions, in and outside Parliament alone, does not retain Parliamentary seats. No doubt they are contributory factors but other equally important but often ignored areas are also crucial in a diverse society full of choices and the right to choose.

One thing all politicians must not forget is the citizens’ right to choose the opposite of what society expects to be the standard. A voter may not like a candidate simply because his or her massive developmental achievements are unprecedented, to the point it becomes a disadvantage to the political party he or she supports in terms of winning power. That voter also goes to the polling booth alone on election day, and no politician wins without floating voters in a multi-party democratic election, particularly in Ghana where a president is elected based on popular votes of fifty percentile of valid vote cast plus one vote.

If there was any time in the history of Parliamentary elections when all stakeholders in the process, including political parties, the voters, candidates, election officials, the press, observers, were outrightly shocked over the outcome of the Parliamentary results, it is the 2024 Ghana's election.

What made it a unique outcome deluding every pollster is the number of seats garnered by the NDC party to now boast of two-third majority in Parliament, especially having known the 8th Parliament to be a hang one resulting into occasional physical fights in the chamber recorded.

No party was ready to lose the presence of one of its MPs, especially during crucial voting on bills meant to become law. One such occasion was during the passage of E-Levy when under NPP a member of Parliament allegedly impersonated in Parliament. Also, that same MP allegedly was from the United States on a Chattered flight costing thousands of dollars just to be present on a particular date to not miss a vote. There was another instance where an MP on a sick bed allegedly had to be on a stretcher against family members’ will to be in parliament and vote for his party.

Today, the National Democratic Party NDC has185 seats out of the 275 seats in Parliament. The NDC party, even with the current popularity deficit that NPP has, cannot say they are in a convincing position to maintain the numerical strength of its MPs in Parliament come 2028.

Even though most Ghanaian electorates have in recent times shown that their votes are not earn through deceit, there remain a fraction swayed by misinformation and disinformation from political parties, their prospective candidates, and foot soldiers. This fraction can form a huge deciding factor in an election that is based on popular votes only.

The NDC must wake up and tackle immediately three significant areas begging for attention in the coming 2028 presidential and Parliamentary elections and has the tendency to shake the incumbent party. These areas of concern currently are brewing quietly to eventually bet amplified by their opponents and serve to the electorate to intoxicate their minds. A development that has the tendency to unseat NDC sitting MPs.

Vote Buying
From the spectacle seen on many TV stations and social media following the flag-bearer race of the NPP, the NDC must not be surprised if the NPP has one of the well-structured frameworks for disbursing vote-buying funds that can never be matched by what was displayed by the NDC candidates during the Ayawaso by-election. A disgraceful act that has the tendency to fuel NDC grassroots demand for money for votes to skyrocket in 2028 and guess the party that can meet that demand readily.

NDC must therefore not cry when NPP uses the alleged stolen and offshore-hidden monies to buy all the votes from the now subtly declared 'electoral Market' in 2028 to cause a Parliamentary earthquake. Ghanaians are waiting to read the findings of the party-level committee set to investigate the alleged inducement of voters during that by-election.

It is important for the party hierarchy to treat the unfortunate issue with all seriousness to instill confidence in their primaries against 2028 elections. Anything short of that could affect their electoral fortunes in 2028.

The party leadership must not be occupied by who becomes their next flag-bearer and running mate when these issues are still lingering, for the Special Prosecutor can surprise the party with an outcome or pronouncements that will be detrimental to the would-be Parliamentary aspirant for that constituency and other constituencies.

Tribunals Bill passed by Parliament versus Military-era Tribunals.

This bill, if not well explained to the citizenry, can become the fuel of NPP's disinformation and misinformation machinery to confuse and sow fear and panic among the citizenry to blacklist NDC leaning floating voters and NPP members who voted NDC in 2024. They should not leave the education of the purpose of the tribunals to only the Judiciary. A clear awareness campaign must immediately begin to disabuse the minds of those holding that perception and enrich the minds of those yet to fall victim to misinformation by the deceit campaign.

It is important to educate Ghanaians, especially those who lived during the PNDC era, emphasizing that this current tribunal is within the 1992 constitution framework and not any military decree or authority birthed the tribunal bill. Equally important is the emphasis on the fact that the recently passed tribunal bill will have the Judicial Council of Ghana supervision, and not any military authority.

Moreover, it must be clearly explained that unlike the Military-era tribunal under PNDC where some empowered individuals among the cadres could determine who loses their lives or ownership of their properties and decisions or rulings being final, the recently passed tribunal bill operates within the legal system with professional legal practitioners being chairpersons, and that unlike the old tribunals under PNDC where appealing a decision had no room, the new Tribunal bill passed makes room for appealing judgements.

ORAL, Plea Bargain, Jailing and Pardoning

The NDC must understand and continuously remember that one of the core reasons they are in power today is their promise to prosecute suspected criminals and jail them when found guilty, especially state officials who stole or misappropriated state funds and properties.

The Ghanaian voter is watching to see if those jailed or to-be-jailed will be pardon or the law will continue to be the law. Any misstep in this endeavor leading to pardoning and plea bargaining unnecessarily, especially with high profile cases, will be a disappointment and the casualties in the 2028 elections will be the NDC Parliamentarians.

The arraignment and jailing of previous government officials found to have allegedly misappropriated public funds, causing economic loss to the state, requires clear articulation to the understanding of the citizenry. For example, the NPP Ashanti regional chairman Wuntumi’s incarceration was not an act of political vindictiveness or witch-hunt. It was the verdict of a judge in a competent court of Ghana after a trial where the case involved was Wuntumi vs the State (Ghana), and not Wuntumi vs NDC, or Wuntumi vs President Mahama. The distinctions need clear articulation.

Former Finance Minister's case must not be excluded from the explanations, and Ghanaians must be made to understand that the NPP is not doing much to convince the former Finance minister, Ken Ofori Atta to come back to Ghana to account for his stewardship and help with investigations. As long as the government keeps that case alive and not publicly painting a picture to suggest it is no longer interested in that case or abandoning it, the electorate will understand the lack of support from the NPP to get Ken Ofori Atta to help with investigations.

Possible Antidotes
Campaign against vote buying must immediately begin both at the party level and the NCCE level to insulate the party from such illegal act. Immediate creation of educational and sensitization groups in every constituency to work full-time respecting Electoral Commission legislative Instruments (LIs). The education should be on dangers of vote buying and to reject any politician who attempts to buy their votes.

Secondly, trainers must receive coaching to in turn train trainees nationwide tasked with continuously educating every eligible voter individually or in groups.

Third, the party leadership should establish immediately full-time educators in every constituency and have them liaise with opinion leaders, traditional leaders, and clerics to educate on what the tribunals are, their benefits, and to strongly disabuse the minds of those who are under the impression that it is a come-back of what existed during the military era. They should also clearly explain to the constituents the differences between the military-era Tribunals and the 1992 Constitution- backed Tribunals.

Moreover, MPs or their representatives must make it a point to hold monthly town hall style meetings with constituents to better and continue to understand their current plights. They must not wait for few months for elections to begin trouping their constituencies portraying they are great listeners.

Male and female spouse of Members of Parliament across the divide must begin electing themselves as behind-the-scenes chief personal assistants of the Parliamentarians supervising and coordinating their wellbeing, particularly in the area of food, sleep, and exercises, for no one knows a spouse better than a spouse himself or herself.

Once a two-year mark in office for a four-year term in office elapses, there is no longer any fresh deal coming your way without a deliberate interest, be it directly or indirectly, and many may be detrimental to re-election bids. Being aware of one’s immediate environment the remaining two years is key to surviving hitches that come to haunt re-election bid during political campaign period, particularly in this era of social media.

Accepting gifts must be an absolute no-go area for MPs, and this applies to immediate family members too, including spouses, children, and their domestic workers.

If I were to advise a politician seeking re-election, it would be what they have heard and possibly been told directly many times, and it is, tell the truth, respect your constituents, and always remember that the camera in whatever form is a necessary evil, for it can project and destroy you without notice, so beware!

I rest my PEN.
Mustapha Alhassan
Pennsylvania, U.S.A.