Five years after the Taliban returned to power, Afghanistan's armed resistance is changing. New opposition groups have appeared, and attacks are being reported beyond the northern provinces where resistance was once concentrated.
The Taliban still controls Afghanistan's major cities, state institutions, and security forces. Its opponents have not shown that they can seriously challenge that control. But new resistance fronts, including groups operating in the south, raise questions about the country's long-term stability.
The main challenge is not an immediate military defeat. It is the failure to resolve political divisions that have persisted since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021.
Resistance Moves Beyond the North
After the Taliban captured Kabul, armed resistance was concentrated mainly in northern and northeastern Afghanistan.
The National Resistance Front (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, and the Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF), headed by former army chief Yasin Zia, became prominent opposition groups. They carried out attacks in Panjshir, Baghlan, Takhar, and Badakhshan but made limited territorial gains.
New groups emerged in 2026, bringing attention to armed activity outside these traditional strongholds.
According to the United Nations Secretary-General's September 2026 report, as covered by Afghanistan International, armed opposition groups claimed 88 attacks across 21 provinces between May and July. The UN verified 55 of these incidents. It also assessed that opposition groups remained divided and posed no major threat to Taliban territorial control.
A separate research compilation of resistance-group statements recorded 119 claimed attacks across 26 provinces during August and September. These figures have not been independently verified. They indicate the geographical spread of reported operations but do not establish actual casualties or territorial gains.
FDD's Long War Journal reported claimed operations by several resistance groups during September, including activity outside Afghanistan's northern provinces. The different figures reflect separate reporting periods and methods, making direct comparisons difficult.
One notable development is the Afghanistan United Front (AUF), led by former Afghan army commander Sami Sadat. The group announced its armed campaign in August 2026 and claimed attacks in Kandahar, Helmand, and other provinces.
The AUF stands out because of its Pashtun leadership and reported operations in southern Afghanistan. Resistance has often been associated with Tajik-led groups in the north. The AUF's emergence shows that opposition is not limited to one ethnic community or region, although it does not establish a wider Pashtun uprising.
Another incident occurred on July 17, when the Homeland Soldiers Front, led by former Afghan commando Qayyum Malang, briefly seized the Yaftali Sufla district center in Badakhshan.
According to Long War Journal's July 31 report, the group's fighters held the district center for several hours before withdrawing. Taliban officials also acknowledged the temporary loss of the building.
The operation did not lead to lasting territorial control, but it showed how smaller armed formations can challenge Taliban authority at the local level.
These developments suggest that resistance is becoming more diverse. Whether the groups can cooperate and sustain their operations remains uncertain.
Political Exclusion and the Broken Amnesty
The changing resistance landscape also reflects Afghanistan's unresolved political problems.
Since returning to power, the Taliban has concentrated political authority around Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and its Kandahar-based leadership. Political opponents have few opportunities to participate in government.
Women remain excluded from national political decision-making, while concerns persist about the limited representation of Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and other communities.
Afghanistan has faced disputes over power-sharing before. Previous governments also struggled with ethnic representation and regional rivalries. Under the Taliban, however, few formal channels exist for peaceful political opposition.
The treatment of former government and security personnel has created another serious problem.
When the Taliban returned to power in 2021, it announced a general amnesty for former officials, soldiers, police officers, and intelligence personnel. United Nations investigations later documented serious violations of that commitment.
In August 2023, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported at least 218 extrajudicial killings, 424 arbitrary arrests and detentions, 144 cases of torture or ill-treatment, and 14 enforced disappearances involving former officials and security personnel between August 2021 and June 2023.
The violations continued in subsequent years. According to UNAMA's April–June 2026 human rights update, the mission documented at least eight killings, 29 arbitrary arrests and detentions, and five incidents of torture or ill-treatment involving former officials and security personnel during that period.
These findings have weakened confidence in the Taliban's amnesty promises.
Former Afghan soldiers and intelligence officers possess military training, knowledge of local terrain, and professional networks. Several resistance leaders previously served in the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.
Although there is insufficient evidence to establish that individual abuses directly caused resistance recruitment, continued reports of mistreatment make reconciliation harder and leave former personnel uncertain about their safety.
More Attacks, but Limited Military Gains
The growing number of reported attacks does not necessarily mean the Taliban is losing control of Afghanistan.
There is a clear difference between attacking a checkpoint and holding territory. Resistance groups may conduct ambushes or strike government facilities without weakening Taliban control over an entire province.
Battlefield claims also require caution. Armed groups frequently report casualties and successful operations through their own media channels, often without independent confirmation.
The Taliban retains major advantages. It controls government institutions, large population centers, border crossings, and important transport routes.
Opposition groups have fewer resources and remain divided under different leaders. Some are linked to former republican officials, while others operate through local commanders.
Their different political objectives and organizational structures limit their ability to coordinate operations or achieve lasting territorial gains.
The greater concern may therefore be continued local fighting rather than an immediate threat to Taliban rule.
Even limited clashes can endanger civilians, disrupt daily life, and deepen insecurity in communities already affected by years of conflict.
Why Afghanistan's Neighbors Should Pay Attention
The spread of armed opposition also matters beyond Afghanistan's borders.
For Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, insecurity in northern Afghanistan could complicate border security, trade routes, and regional connectivity.
Pakistan faces a different challenge. Relations with Kabul have become increasingly tense over cross-border militancy, particularly the activities of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Reported resistance activity in southern Afghanistan adds another source of uncertainty. However, claims that foreign governments are supporting Afghan armed groups require independent evidence.
China also has an interest in preventing renewed instability that could affect regional trade, investment, and security.
Policymakers must distinguish anti-Taliban resistance organizations from Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Although both oppose Taliban rule, their political objectives differ. ISKP follows a transnational jihadist agenda, while several resistance organizations seek political change within Afghanistan.
These distinctions matter when assessing regional security threats and considering diplomatic responses.
The Limits of Taliban Control
Five years after taking power, the Taliban remains Afghanistan's dominant military and political force. Its opponents are fragmented and have not demonstrated the capacity to replace it.
Yet the emergence of new resistance fronts highlights political problems that remain unresolved. Limited representation, continued abuses against former security personnel, and the absence of meaningful reconciliation remain important concerns.
For regional and international policymakers, the priority should be to distinguish verified resistance activity from exaggerated battlefield claims. Sustained territorial control, organizational coordination, and independently confirmed operations provide more reliable measures of military strength than attack numbers alone.
The Taliban can disrupt armed operations and maintain control over government institutions. But military power cannot, by itself, resolve Afghanistan's political divisions.
Without meaningful reconciliation, Afghanistan may remain under Taliban control while facing continued localized resistance and insecurity.
Nadeem Afzal is a lawyer and human rights practitioner. His areas of expertise include terrorism, cybersecurity, and emerging issues in South Asia and the Middle East.
NPP rejects Mahama's appointment of Emelia Agbenyo as EC deputy, demands withdra...
Excessive consumption of processed meat can expose one to cancer – Health expert...
Education Minister appeals to University Administrators to call off strike, resu...
'You're doing yeoman’s job' — Mahama lauds Police over declined unresolved murde...
Wilmar Africa, De Heus, other food processing companies face CID action over dat...
NPP’s Baba Amando runs to police over alleged death threats
Ghana repatriates 120 Nigerians arrested in cybercrime operations
PIAC unable to verify GH¢21million petroleum-funded projects in Ayawaso West
Wontumi pleads not guilty to five charges in GH¢30m Exim Bank fraud case
Ghana among stronger-performing economies in sub-Saharan Africa — IMF
