Ghana among stronger-performing economies in sub-Saharan Africa — IMF

Ghana’s economy is expected to expand by 5.2 per cent in 2026 and 5.7 per cent in 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook.

The projections indicate a moderation from the 6.0 per cent growth recorded in 2025, but Ghana is still expected to remain among the stronger-performing economies in sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is forecast at 4.5 per cent in 2026.

The IMF’s report, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,” also forecasts a significant decline in Ghana’s consumer price inflation, from 14.2 per cent in 2025 to 4.8 per cent in 2026, before rising to 7.8 per cent in 2027.

Ghana’s external position is expected to remain favourable, with the current account surplus projected at 6.0 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and 5.6 per cent in 2027.

The report attributes the strong external position partly to favourable terms of trade resulting from elevated gold prices. Gold accounted for 67 per cent of Ghana’s total goods exports in 2025.

Ghana is grouped among the region’s middle-income economies, alongside South Africa, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon and Senegal.

Nigeria, the region’s largest economy, is projected to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026, while South Africa’s economy is expected to expand by 1.0 per cent.

Global growth outlook

The IMF projects global economic growth at 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, despite persistent uncertainty arising from geopolitical conflicts and changes in global trade policies.

According to the Fund, the global economy has demonstrated resilience following several major shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and significant changes in trade barriers.

However, global headline inflation is forecast to rise to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 4.1 per cent in 2027, largely due to higher energy and food prices.

The report said the headline growth figures conceal differences in how countries are responding to the changing global environment.

Economies with limited direct exposure to the conflicts and stronger participation in the technology-driven expansion have maintained relatively resilient activity. In contrast, energy-importing countries with limited links to technology supply chains face higher import costs, weaker real incomes and tighter fiscal constraints.

For sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF warned that oil-importing economies with limited natural-resource production were particularly vulnerable to rising energy and food prices.

It added that larger economies in the region continued to benefit from earlier stabilisation measures and reforms.

Nigeria’s outlook, for instance, is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade. However, the Fund cautioned that rising prices of essential goods could worsen poverty and food insecurity.

IMF urges fiscal discipline and structural reforms

The IMF has called on governments to prioritise rebuilding fiscal buffers amid elevated debt levels, increasing borrowing costs and growing demands on public finances.

It said measures introduced to cushion households and businesses against higher energy and food prices should be temporary, targeted and designed to minimise market distortions.

The Fund stressed that such interventions should not undermine efforts to maintain sustainable public finances.

It also highlighted the need for structural reforms to strengthen energy security, improve preparedness for artificial intelligence and preserve open trade and international cooperation.

According to the report, these measures are essential to helping economies withstand increasingly frequent global shocks.

The IMF’s projections for Ghana come alongside a credit rating upgrade by Moody’s Ratings, which raised the country’s rating to B3 from Caa1 on October 9, 2026.

Moody’s cited improved debt affordability and sustained fiscal discipline as factors behind the upgrade.