Joseph Abonenga raises alarm over 4.1 percentage point drop in Ghana’s current account surplus projection

Economic Policy and Development Strategist Abonenga Joseph Aguyire has raised concerns over Ghana’s external economic outlook following a reported downward revision of the country’s projected current account surplus in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook.

Mr Aguyire said Ghana’s projected current account surplus had declined from 10.1 per cent to 6.0 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between the April and October 2026 forecasts, representing a drop of 4.1 percentage points.

In an economic commentary, he argued that the downward revision deserved serious attention, despite an upward adjustment in Ghana’s projected economic growth from 4.8 per cent to 5.7 per cent.

According to him, the deterioration in the current account surplus raises questions about the sustainability of Ghana’s external position and the country’s ability to maintain stable foreign exchange earnings.

He explained that the current account balance reflects a country’s transactions with the rest of the world and has implications for foreign exchange availability, reserve accumulation and exchange rate stability.

Although the projected surplus remains positive, Mr Aguyire argued that the significant downward revision warrants a closer examination of the factors affecting Ghana’s export earnings and foreign exchange outflows.

“The critical question is not simply why the projection has changed, but what this means for the sustainability of our external position,” he stated.

Mr Aguyire identified Ghana’s heavy dependence on gold exports as a major vulnerability, warning that the country cannot build sustainable external stability by relying excessively on a single commodity.

Citing figures attributed to the Ghana Statistical Service, he said gold accounted for 63.1 per cent of Ghana’s total merchandise export earnings in 2025, generating approximately US$20.2 billion.

He noted that while gold remains an important source of foreign exchange, its prices are determined by international market forces, while production levels and export volumes can fluctuate.

He therefore called for a deliberate export diversification strategy focused on agro-processing, manufacturing and competitive non-traditional exports.

Mr Aguyire also advocated viable import substitution measures to reduce avoidable foreign exchange outflows, stressing the need for productive investment, reliable infrastructure and policies that strengthen domestic industries.

The economic policy strategist further raised concerns about the dominance of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in Ghana’s gold export earnings, particularly amid persistent environmental challenges associated with illegal mining.

According to figures cited in his commentary, small-scale mining exported approximately 103 tonnes of gold valued at US$10.8 billion in 2025, compared with 96.6 tonnes worth US$9.2 billion from large-scale mining.

He said small-scale mining accounted for approximately 51.5 per cent of the country’s total gold export earnings during the period.

Mr Aguyire also cited Reuters reports estimating that between 70 and 80 per cent of small-scale mining operations in Ghana were unlicensed.

He warned that illegal mining had contributed to the destruction of forest reserves, pollution of water bodies and degradation of the country’s natural ecosystems.

While acknowledging the importance of gold exports to Ghana’s foreign exchange earnings, he questioned whether the country was sacrificing its environmental security for short-term economic benefits.

He stressed that efforts to generate foreign exchange must not undermine the environment or compromise the welfare of future generations.

Mr Aguyire urged the government to examine the factors behind the revised current account projections and outline credible measures to protect export earnings, strengthen external buffers and diversify Ghana’s sources of foreign exchange.

He argued that the country needed to move beyond policy rhetoric and invest in productive sectors capable of generating sustainable export revenue.

He further called for measures to strengthen domestic industries, expand non-traditional exports and reduce dependence on imported goods where competitive local alternatives could be developed.

According to him, Ghana’s long-term economic stability depends not only on maintaining a current account surplus but also on ensuring that the sources of foreign exchange earnings are diverse and resilient to external shocks.

He maintained that the country’s economic fortunes should not depend disproportionately on the price, production and export performance of a single commodity.

“Export diversification is not merely an economic aspiration. It is a strategic necessity,” he stated.