IFS flags GH¢712.43m discrepancy in 2026 Mid-Year Budget revenue figures

The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has identified a GH¢712.43 million discrepancy in the revenue and grants target contained in the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, raising concerns about the consistency and reliability of the government’s fiscal data.

The discrepancy, according to the IFS, also affects the reported GH¢1.37 billion shortfall in revenue and grants recorded during the first half of 2026.

Speaking at a press conference on the Institute’s assessment of the Mid-Year Budget Review, IFS Executive Director, Dr Said Boakye, said the inconsistency was identified in Appendices 2A and 2B of the Budget document.

The appendices indicate a revenue and grants target of GH¢126.14 billion for the first six months of 2026. However, the IFS said the individual revenue components listed in the same tables add up to only GH¢125.43 billion, leaving an unexplained difference of GH¢712.43 million.

“This discrepancy has implications for the actual shortfall in total revenue and grants in the first half of 2026,” the Institute said.

According to the IFS, if GH¢125.43 billion had been used as the revenue and grants target, the shortfall would have been GH¢656.93 million instead of the GH¢1.37 billion reported by the Ministry of Finance.

Missing revenue line
Dr Boakye attributed the discrepancy, in part, to the omission of Social Contributions from Appendices 2A and 2B, describing it as a traditional revenue category.

“We suspect that this missing revenue line is responsible for the discrepancy,” he said.

The IFS also identified another inconsistency involving tax refunds in Appendix 2B.

It noted that the appendix contained two different figures for tax refunds during the first half of 2026 — GH¢1.59 billion and GH¢4.27 billion.

The Institute said the Ministry of Finance used the lower GH¢1.59 billion figure in calculating total revenue and grants outturn of GH¢124.78 billion.

However, Dr Boakye said applying the higher GH¢4.27 billion figure would reduce the total revenue and grants outturn to GH¢122.10 billion, which would be GH¢2.68 billion lower than the figure reported by the Ministry.

The IFS questioned why the higher tax refunds figure appeared in the Budget document but was not used in calculating the total revenue and grants outturn.

“The question is, why did the government state the larger tax refunds figure in the budget without using it for its calculations?” the Institute asked.

The IFS further observed that tax refunds amounted to GH¢5.07 billion during the first half of 2025, which was higher than the GH¢4.27 billion figure reported for the corresponding period in 2026.

Call for stronger data validation
The Institute said the discrepancies needed to be addressed because accurate and internally consistent fiscal data were critical for assessing revenue performance and determining the credibility of government’s fiscal projections.

It urged the Ministry of Finance to strengthen its data validation and verification systems to ensure that figures presented in different sections of the Budget Statement are consistent and can be reconciled.

“Doing so will help improve the reliability of the fiscal data contained in the country’s budget,” Dr Boakye said.