Will El Niño drought hit food prices in South Africa? Earlier rains and grain stocks offer hope

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The likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa's agriculture and food prices in 2027 is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists in the country.

By mid-2026, weather forecasts were signalling that the world was heading towards a severe El Niño. The El Niño weather phenomenon tends to have varying impacts on the many regions of the world. For southern Africa, it typically presents drought, which is negative for agricultural production.

The arrival of the likely drought is due to coincide with South Africa's 2026-27 summer crop season.

In my work as an agricultural economist and visiting various farming regions across South Africa, I believe that in examining the likely impact of this El Niño on crop production and, subsequently, on consumer food price inflation, two major factors need to be considered.

First, unlike in the most recent droughts, South Africa will enter the 2026-27 summer crop season with higher soil moisture, because there were excessive rains in the 2025-26 season which lasted far longer than usual. South Africa received rains through to May 2026, which is unusual; the summer rains typically end around March. The rains improved the water levels in the dams for irrigation, and also the soil moisture and water tables. This places the country in a better position ahead of the 2026-27 crop season.

Second, South Africa has ample grain supplies, and carries over a high stock of grain, which may soften some of the drought impact on food prices and therefore inflation.

Food is an important component of South Africa's inflation basket, with a weighting of about 16.8%. A rise in food price inflation therefore tends to influence the overall inflation trend. Still, it's likely that 2027 may not be the same as previous droughts that led to a notable increase in food price inflation, and then the headline (overall) inflation figure.

The impact of previous droughts

South Africa's staple grain is maize. In past drought events, South Africa saw notable losses in maize production, and a broader impact on other agricultural activities. For example, one of the most memorable droughts in South Africa occurred in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons. The maize harvest in that period fell to around 8.9 million tonnes on average. (For comparison, at the current 2025-26 season, South Africa is expecting a maize harvest of 17.3 million tonnes.)

South Africa's annual maize consumption is about 12.0 million tonnes, and a smaller harvest meant the country had to import. This led to a surge in food price inflation, which averaged 10.8% in 2016. (It averaged 3.2% in the first five months in 2026.)

The impact was not only on maize, but across the field crops: maize, wheat, soybeans, sunflower seed and sugarcane, among others. Roughly 20% of South Africa's field crops are under irrigation, with the rest rainfed. All production of fruits and vegetables is under irrigation, and will benefit from the higher water levels in dams this year.

This time, things are different.

What's different this time

First, South Africa has benefited from a prolonged La Niña, a weather pattern which makes the region wetter. This has supported the agricultural sector over the past few years. The rains place farming in a better position ahead of the 2026-27 season.

In the 2024-25 season, the summer rains continued through April 2025; they normally end in March. In the 2025-26 season, they went on to May 2026.

Ordinarily, such long rainfall periods would raise concerns about crop quality. But in the areas that harvested the 2025-26 crops, the country hasn't seen many quality issues. In fact, the Crop Estimates Committee's latest projections were revised higher and still point to a record summer crop harvest for 2025-26.

The longer rainfall season improved soil moisture and the water table. The planting period starts in October 2026. There may be sufficient soil moisture to support seed germination and crop development even as El Niño conditions likely result in below-normal rainfall.

That said, the timing of the rain is what will matter most for crop development.

In the irrigation areas, such as the fruit and vegetable growing regions, the La Niña rains over the past few years have improved dam water levels and the overall water table.

Field crops will depend mostly on available soil moisture and the timing of showers going into the 2026-27 season.

For the livestock industry, grazing across the country is in a fair condition, having benefited from the longer rainy periods. The improved water table will continue to support pastures.

The second key factor is that South Africa has its largest-ever summer grain and oilseed crop in the 2025-26 season. The Crop Estimates Committee places the 2025-26 summer crop at a record 21.49 million tonnes, 5% up year-on-year. Notably, zooming in on the major grains, the 2025-26 maize production estimate is 17.25 million tonnes, up 4% from last season, and the largest harvest on record. This ample grain harvest adds to large carryover stocks from the previous season.

The path ahead is better

The drought that's being forecast is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers. But any upcoming drought shouldn't be viewed in the same way as previous dry spells. There are clear factors here that may shape this upcoming season better than the last droughts.

Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and South Africa's Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land.

By Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University