Today is Election Day: Who will Break the Eight, NPP or NDC?

Ghana goes to the polls today December 7, 2024, to elect a president and parliamentarians for the next four years. The current president, Nana Akufo-Addo has completed his constitutionally mandated two-terms of 4 years each and therefore, not eligible to contest for the presidency again. There are thirteen presidential candidates but it’s obvious that only two, the presidential candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and Vice-President for the past eight years, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and the presidential candidate of the main opposition party, National Democratic Congress (NDC), former president John Mahama stand the chance of being elected. This short article is to assess the chances of the two leading parties, and in effect, the two leading presidential candidates.

Under the Fourth Republican Constitution, which came into force in 1992, Ghana holds presidential and parliamentary elections every four years. However, Ghanaian presidents as in the US are restricted to a maximum of two terms of 4 years each and cannot contest for the presidency again once they serve their two terms. Since 1992, except for ex-presidents (the late) Prof John Attah-Mills who died in office before the end of his first term and John Mahama who served only one term from 2012 to 2016, the rest have all served the two maximum terms allowed consecutively. The late president Jerry Rawlings served from January 1992 to January 2001, president John Kufour, from January 2001 to January 2009 and president Nana Akufo-Addo from January 2017 to end in January 2025.

It is interesting to note that though president Mahama served one term of four years, his party (NDC) was in office for the two consecutive terms of 8 years from January 2009 to January 2017. This was because the late president, Prof Attah-Mills over in January 2009 but sadly passed away in July 2012. His Vice-President, John Mahama was sworn in to complete the remaining six months of their first term. He then won the December 7, 2012 presidential election to serve from January 2013 to January 2017. John Mahama was unsuccessful in his attempt to serve a second consecutive term as he was defeated by president Nana Akufo-Addo in the December 7, 2016 presidential election.

From the above, I am of the view that Ghanaian electorates have given each of the two leading political parties (NPP and NDC), two consecutive presidential terms in office and got rid of them throughout out the Fourth Republic. This makes today’s presidential election very interesting because the NPP is attempting to secure the elusive consecutive third term that none of the two leading parties has attained. The party’s mantra is “Break the Eight” and they have left no stone unturned in their determination to secure the first ever consecutive third term, see, “Bawumia will make history for NPP by "breaking the 8"- Gideon Boako”, Daily Graphic, September 10, 2024. In fact, earlier in the year, president Nana Akufo-Addo, his ministers and leading members of the NPP openly and publicly said, he will hand over to his Vice-President, who is the party’s presidential candidate. It was after public criticism that their views were in breach of the constitution that such public statements have gone down, see, “Mahama Mad At Akufo-Addo Over Handing Power To Bawumia Comment” Daily Guide, November 7, 2023 and “Akufo-Addo will hand over sword to Bawumia -NAPO”, The Chronicle, August 19, 2024.

The opposition NDC is also determined to stop the ruling NPP from securing a third consecutive presidential term. Equally, they have also sworn to prevent that from happening and are confident of wresting power from the ruling NPP. In fact, when NDC’s representative picked slot number eight at the balloting of the presidential candidates by the EC, NDC claimed that it was divine intervention to deny NPP the third presidential term. They also adopted the “Break the Eight” as a slogan. That then compelled NPP to tone down on Breaking the Eight but concentrated on their presidential candidate’s first position on the ballot, see, “Election 2024: NDC’s 8th position on ballot is God-given - Kofi Adams”, Ghanaweb, September 22, 2024.

So, who will break the eight today, NPP or NDC?

The NPP is more than confident of breaking the eight today. That is, their presidential candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia will win the presidential election today. According to the party’s campaign message, they have delivered their campaign promises of the past eight years to deserve a third consecutive term for the first time. Among their achievements are the free SHS, improvement in healthcare including the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), inclusion of childhood cancer in the HNIS, free for those age 60 and above, more ambulances, payment of nursing students’ allowances, construction of more hospitals under the “Agenda 111”, etc. Improvement in SHS attainment, establishment of STEM schools, infrastructure development such as roads, and others including impressive digitisation programme including the National Identity Card, passports, driving licences, and many others, just to mention a few.

On the other hand, the leading opposition NDC points out in their campaign messages the deteriorating economic conditions under the Akufo-Addo-Bawumia government such as high interest rates, cedi depreciation against the US dollar from Ghc4.00 to Ghc16.00 to $1.00 in eight years, the banking clean up that many investors lost their life savings as well as the economic meltdown that compelled the government to seek a humiliating bail out from the IMF and the resulting “haircut” or “hairshave” that has been devastating to savers and pensioners. NDC also accuse the government of massive corruption, higher taxes, mismanagement and cronyism.

Are the Akufo-Addo-Bawumia government’s performance and campaign messages enough to persuade voters to retain the NPP at the presidency or are the main opposition NDC’s campaign messages enough for voters to confirm the customary practice of two terms and you are out and bring back NDC after 8 years?

As an observer from afar, I have no intention of answering this question for two reasons. First, only voters who exercise their right to vote and do cast their vote today will decide who wins the presidency provided the elections are free, fair and transparent. The second is that presidential elections are increasingly becoming difficult to predict, and a typical example was last month’s US presidential election that many predictions went wrong. This is because voters are becoming shy of publicly disclosing who they will vote for and often claim that they are undecided.

My personal view is that any of the two leading candidates can win the presidency. However, it’s also possible that, NPP could break the eight but become minority in the legislature. If that happens, there will be two first on one day. That is, first third consecutive presidential term and first president not to have majority in parliament. I say so because there are more parliamentary candidates from NPP that are standing as independent and could split their votes in what is popularly known in Ghana as “skirt and blouse” voting. That is, party members, supporters and sympathisers vote for the party’s presidential candidate but do not vote for the party’s parliamentary candidate but an independent who was previously a party member.

One party controlling the executive arm of government and another the legislative arm would be novel in Ghana, though the last parliament almost had the same results. Perhaps, if my deluded prediction occurs, the new president could offer the newly elected MPs who were member of the NPP before the elections, an olive breach by asking them to go “Asiama Amoako”. That is, sit as independent MPs but vote with NPP. Will that be sufficient to get the party a majority in the legislature?

Whatever happens on election day, what is important is free, fair and transparent elections and not peaceful elections. This is important because the former guaranteed peace for the long term whilst peaceful elections only guarantee peace short-term (during and after elections up to when the results are announced). If the voters or one side feel cheated by the results because if the counting and collation of result were not free, fair and transparent, then hell could break loose with the potential risk of break down of law and order or even conflict. I am hopeful that will not happen in Ghana.

In conclusion, my prayer is that may the choices voters make across polling stations in both presidential and parliamentary elections be announced by the EC as the winners. However, should my highly unlikely prediction see the light of the day with NPP winning the presidency and the opposition NDC becoming majority in the legislature, it would be wrong for them to prevent the president from running an effective government because voters gave him a four-year mandate to deliver his manifesto. Therefore, parliament should not be a barrier to prosecuting his agenda.

Kofi Ata, Cambridge, UK