The Us Presidential Election 2024: Who Would Win?

On November 5, 2024, Americans will go to the polls to elect a new president. The candidates are Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party. The polls suggest that the election is tied and that either candidate can win.

Kamala Harris is the current vice president. She previously served as a senator from California and attorney general for the state. In 2020, she and Joseph Biden won the election against Donald Trump. She became a Democratic presidential candidate in July after Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed her. If she wins, she will become American first female president and second Black US president.

Trump became president in 2017 after defeating Hilary Clinton in 2016. He became president without having a political experience. Before the presidency, he was a TV personality operating a reality show called “The Apprentice”. This election is his third time running for president. If he wins, he will become the first American president to be reelected after being defeated.

Analysts have expressed opinions regarding the election. Some said that Trump would win while others picked Harris. Frank Luntz, the guru of polls, predicted Trump will win. Nat Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight (538), a leading pollster, viewed recently that Trump would win. David Woo, a media analyst, predicted Trump’s victory and that the Republican Party would win the House and the Senate. The Daily Mail forecasted Trump defeating Harris.

However, American University Professor Allan Lichtman, considered the Nostradamus of US presidential elections, officially predicted Harris' winning. He correctly forecasted 9 out of 10 presidential elections since 1984. Thomas Miller, of the Northwestern data science program, forecasted that Harris would win. In 2020, he predicted Biden’s victory. James Carville, a strategist famous in Bill Clinton's 1994 election, stated that Harris would be victorious.

As stated earlier, the race is close. Some polls say that Harris is leading while others show Trump is up. Are polls correct? Can the 2016 scenario occur when pollsters wrongly predicted Hillary Clinton winning? Can pollsters repeat the error in the 2020 election that Biden would defeat Trump massively but only to find out that the election was close?

POLLS AND POLLING

First, let us discuss polling. It is a method of knowing public opinions regarding a present, past, or future event. When I assisted in polling for the Washington Post in the 80s, we used the mainline telephone to get the data. We called likely voters mostly on the weekends. With the advent of the internet, pollsters get their information online and through mail surveys including phone calls. They analyzed the data, using different methodologies to meet desired goals. As one observer noted, polls are the results of the voters’ opinions and the pollster’s analysis. After the survey or interview, the pollster adjusts the data for the study.

About 80% of the polling data is conducted online and 20% by telephone. The wording of the survey question is important. A wrong phasing could lead to an inaccurate answer. For instance, a pollster would ask. “Who would you vote for if the presidential election were held today and the candidates were John Doe of the Democratic Party and Joe Blow of the Republican Party? This question is direct, stating the candidates. A wrong question could be. ”If the presidential election were held today and the parties were the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, which party would you vote for?” This question leaves out the candidates and focuses on the parties. The voters would answer or ignore the question because it is not about the candidates but the parties.

In this election, it is said that pollsters interview only likely voters who have voted in the 2020 presidential election. The survey does not consider new voters. A poll is within the margin of error if a candidate leads less than 4 or 5 percent, meaning the race is statistically tied. More than 5 points are considered outside the margin of error.

The poll sample size is also important. A smaller size is not representative of a bigger population area. The larger the size, the better is the survey. The Cooperative Election Study, a public research project by several universities and supervised by YouGov, recently polled 50,000 likely voters and found that Harris leads 57% to 47% with 3% undecided. This poll has the largest sample size ever in this election. The different percent is far outside the margin of error. Most of the other polls are not. One reason could have been the small sample size.

Polls have been wrong, as in 2016 and 2020 when they underestimated Trump’s numbers. Though in the 2022 midterm, the polls did better, they wrongly indicated that the Republicans would sweep both houses. The Republican Party overtook the House, but the Democrats retained the Senate. Some analysts think the 2024 polls are underestimating Harris' numbers and strength, despite pollsters adjusting their polling methodologies after 2016 and 2020. Further, many analysts, including CNN, doubt the 2024 race will be as close as polls are suggesting. They say that considering other factors such as the increase of women votes, Harris could be overperforming contrary to the polls. In other words, the polls could be underestimating her, though she has led narrowly since becoming a candidate. They also may be underestimating Trump.

In addition to external polls, each party has an internal poll. While an internal poll tends to project a positive public image of a party election, the pollster must frankly inform the candidate of the poll results. In the 1980 election, while President Jimmy Carter was in Air Force One to vote in Georgia, his pollster told him the president would lose. Carter was said to have cried upon hearing the news. The same happened in 1994 to President George Bush, Sr. Good and professional pollsters tell the truth.

There are over 20 pollsters for this election. Some are new. Some are good, not too good or bad. Many are partisan leaning, presenting polls favorable to their candidates. 538 names the ten best pollsters based on their track records, reliability, consistency, unbiased, and methodological transparency of their polls. They include the New York Times, Washington Post, CBS, YouGov, and Marist College.

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Unlike other countries where the president is determined by the popular votes, in America, the presidential election is won by the Electoral College votes. States received electoral votes based on their population. For example, California, Texan, Florida, and New York with a large population have 58, 40, 30, and 28 electoral votes respectively. States with low population have smaller votes. The founding fathers used this system so that one state would not dominate the presidency. They copied this arrangement from the Roman Empire and adopted it during the 1787 Constitutional Convention. There are 538 electoral votes. A candidate must have at least 270 votes to win.

In the event the electoral votes are tied, the House of Representatives, in a contingent election, will choose the president. The Senate will pick the vice president. Has this happened before? Yes. In the 1824 election, 200 years ago, none of the four presidential candidates; Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay, and William Crawford, received the required electoral votes. The House chose Adams, though Jackson won the popular votes and had the highest electoral votes. Why? Adams, speaker of the House then, used his influence to win. Clay and other politicians supported him. After the inauguration, he appointed Clay secretary of state. But before 1824, the first tied election was the election of 1800 between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr. The House elected Jefferson of the Democratic-Republican Party.

The next election that came close to being tied was the election of 2000 between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Gore, a Democrat candidate who was vice president to Bill Clinton and leading in the election, received 266 electoral votes and Bush got 271. Gore requested a recount of ballots from Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Volusia counties, Florida. However, the US Supreme Court stopped the recount and awarded Florida and the presidency to Bush. Some observers blamed the Gore campaign for failing to win Gore’s home state of Tennessee. Had he, he would have won the election without Florida.

SWING STATES

There are seven crucial states in this election for a candidate to reach 270 or more. They are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. They are called swing states.

Swing states are states that swing their votes between parties. They are also called Battleground States and are divided into two, Rust Belt states and Sunbelt states. Rust Belt states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Historically, they have voted Democrat. In 2016, Trump won them against Hilary Clinton but lost them to Biden in 2020. Sunbelt states include North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada. They have sunny weather. Except with Nevada, they tend to be Republicans, though Bill Clinton in 1992; Obama in 2008 and 2012 won Florida; Obama in 2008 won North Carolina; Bill Clinton in 1992 and Biden in 2020 won Georgia, and Bill Clinton in 1996 and Biden in 2020 won Arizona. Presently, according to the polls, the race in these states besides Florida is close.

However, the Rust Belt states, particularly Pennsylvania, are the most important jurisdictions that could determine the election. A candidate who wins them will have an easy path to the White House. Harris does not technically need to win Pennsylvania if she wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. Trump must win Pennsylvania plus Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, or Arizona for 271 or 272. Assuming other traditional states are in place, below are the minimum combination paths for each candidate to victory.

HARRIS

• Pennsylvania and Arizona for 270.
• Georgia and Michigan for 271,
• North Carolina and Michigan for 271.
• Georgia and North Carolina for 272.

TRUMP

• Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin for 271.
• Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin for 271.
• Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and Arizona for 272.
• Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Arizona for 272.

CNN's October 30 poll indicated that Harris leads 48% to 43% among likely voters in Michigan; 51% to 45% in Wisconsin. Both candidates are tied in Pennsylvania. However, other polls show different numbers, indicating either candidate is leading. All polls point to an even percent for both candidates in Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes and is the prime jewel. Some counties in Pennsylvania are predominately Republican and others are Democratic. Republican counties include Butler, Armstrong, and Washington, which have a large number of rural White voters. Meanwhile, Democratic counties like Philadelphia and Allegheny have a very high number of urban voters of Blacks and Latinos.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Gender and demographic groups are factors in this contest. Women have the largest votes. According to polls, 57% support Harris and 41% back Trump. She has 55% to 43% of White college graduates and 57% to 41% of younger voters under 30. In 2016, Hilary Clinton had 15% to Harris’ 21% in 2024. Since 2020, Latino voters have increased. About 53% intend to support Harris compared to 44% for Trump. Black voters are 87% for Harris and 9% for Trump. Harris’ number is lower than Obama’s in 2008 and Biden’s in 2020.

However, White men, rural, without college degrees and older are stated to plan to vote for Trump, 58% to 40%. Harris’ high support among women is motivated largely by the Supreme Court's recent ruling overturning Roe V. Wade, a 1973 landmark case regarding abortion. The previous decision gave women the right to abortion. Women advocates blamed the reversal on Trump’s appointed Supreme Court justices.

While Harris has a wider lead among younger voters, some observers view that younger voters are less committed to vote. “With 13% of the 18-29 year-olds surveyed saying they will “maybe” vote, while 3% will not vote or are still unsure”, according to a poll. Nevertheless, a large percent of younger voters are said to be more engaged in this election than in 2020.

THE ISSUES

Many social and economic issues have driven this election. They entail the economy, immigration, abortion, and healthcare. According to the polls, voters see Trump to better handle the economy. To some, the economy was better under him. Many see the influx of undocumented immigrants into America hurt the economy and increased crimes. Some voters feel that Trump would stop illegal immigration. In his only debate with Harris, Trump claimed that his administration had the best economy and that Haitian undocumented immigrants are eating neighbor’s cats and dogs. Though a fact check of these statements has proven them wrong, some voters believe Trump.

Meanwhile, voters see Harris to better handle healthcare and promote and protect democracy. Though Trump criticizes Obama Care, a healthcare policy by the Obama administration, the Trump’s campaign has not proposed an alternative. Harris has promised that as president, she would re-institute Roe V. Wade and install a policy of “opportunity economy”.

A review of the US economy under Trump and Biden reveals that both administrations had economic challenges and successes. America experienced a strong economy before 2016. Economic growth continued in the first three years of Trump. Private sector jobs grew and wages increased. Unemployment was 3.5%. But during 2019 the country experienced an economic downward as many businesses closed down due to the CoVid pediment.

There was a “soaring levels of unemployment in the US”. In addition to the meltdown, CoVid killed thousands of Americans. The world economy almost collapsed. However, unlike in other advanced economies, the American economy bounced back by the time Trump left office in 2021. The Biden administration continued the improvement by instituting several measures, including the American Rescue Plan. Economists say that while this measure infused cash into the economy and created more jobs, it further caused inflation, as prices of consumer goods, such as food increased.

Inflation rose to 9.1% in 2023. This caused hardship, particularly for low-income Americans. Food costs have risen “by 13.5% over the year ending in August 2022”, according to a report. But economists credit the Biden administration for creating more jobs and decreasing inflation to about 3% and presently lower. During the Regan presidency, inflation was above 9% and far more in previous administrations. The GDP under Biden has grown by 2.2%, almost the same level as Trump’s 2.3%.

This election is unique in that it will become the most expensive election in America. Both parties will spend about $2B. The Harris campaign received $1B within three months. Recently, Billionaire Bill Gates and Blumberg gave $50M each to the Harris campaign. The Nikki Haley Republicans for Harris have allocated $7M for advertising in the Rust Belt states for Harris. The Trump campaign has received millions of dollars. One of its main contributors is Billionaire Elon Musk. He gave $118M through his American PAC to Trump campaign. Other billionaires have contributed.

Despite the polls and the financial contributions, ground game and mobilizing voters to the polls are keys to victory. Both campaigns are doing that. Harris’ ground game is said to have 2505 staff and 358 offices in the battleground states. Thousands of volunteers are knocking on voters' doors, telephoning, and sending out campaign materials for voters to vote for Harris. The campaign advertises on the airwaves and billboards using also Latino and Caribbean speaking ads to reach this ethnic group.

The Trump campaign is carrying out similar ground game. The campaign has outsourced its ground game to Elon Musk group. Volunteers conduct Jehovah-style canvassing and mobilizing voters to vote for Trump.

The polls should close by 8 PM Eastern time, Tuesday, November 5th. California on the West Coast should close its polls later. The results should be coming in within an hour. According to information, Georgia should be the first swing state to give results. The others should follow. The final results should be known after a few days, let us say by Saturday.

The defeated candidate could challenge the results, as lawyers from both camps are prepared to go to court. Many voters fear that Trump may not accept the results if he loses. He did not accept his defeat in 2020. Harris alleges that Trump plans to declare victory before the networks announce the final results.

Watching the election should be exciting but with suspense.

About the author. Dagbayonoh Kiah Nyanfore II is a Liberian national who has lived in the US for over 40 years. He is a political commentator specializing in elections. He has covered elections in America and Liberia since 2012. Nyanfore is a graduate of Georgetown University in international affairs and worked with Bill Clinton’s 1992 transition team in international communications. He was a special assistant in the office of the late Congressman Les Aspen. He is a writer and has published over 60 articles, including a forthcoming book, “Victory over Difficulties”. He can be reached at [email protected] or his website at ww.dagbayonohkiahnyanfore.com.