Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the world has watched in horror as one of Europe’s bloodiest conflicts in decades has unfolded. Amid fierce resistance from Ukraine, bolstered by substantial military aid from the West, Russia's so-called "special military operation" has not gone as planned. Now, in a series of alarming statements, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that his country might consider any attack on Russia from a non-nuclear state, supported by a nuclear-armed nation, as a "joint attack." This veiled threat hints at the possible use of nuclear weapons, a terrifying prospect for global security.
Putin’s recent remarks have raised questions about his motives and the broader implications of such threats. Could this be a strategic move to deter further Western support for Ukraine, or does it reveal deeper vulnerabilities in Russia’s military campaign? We will delve into Putin’s nuclear rhetoric, examine the state of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and explore why the Russian leader may be resorting to increasingly dangerous and desperate measures to halt Ukraine’s progress and stem Western military aid.
Putin’s Nuclear Doctrine: A Dangerous Shift?
Vladimir Putin's recent statements on the potential use of nuclear weapons represent a significant shift in Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Traditionally, Russia’s nuclear policy, much like that of other nuclear powers, has revolved around deterrence, specifically the idea that nuclear weapons would only be used in the event of an existential threat to the nation. This is part of the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which has long prevented nuclear-armed states from engaging in direct conflict.
However, Putin’s declaration that an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state, backed by a nuclear-armed country, could be seen as a "joint attack" complicates this narrative. By blurring the lines between nuclear and non-nuclear conflict, Putin is effectively lowering the threshold for nuclear escalation. Given that Ukraine, a non-nuclear state, is receiving significant military support from the United States and other nuclear-armed NATO members, this statement can be interpreted as a direct warning to the West: Continue arming Ukraine, and you risk nuclear confrontation.
This raises the question: Why now? What does Putin hope to achieve with these nuclear threats? One possible answer lies in the increasingly precarious position Russia finds itself in regarding the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s Military Struggles in Ukraine: The Backdrop to Nuclear Rhetoric
When Putin first launched his invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military was widely perceived as one of the most powerful in the world. Many analysts expected Kyiv to fall within weeks, if not days. Yet, nearly two years later, Russia is far from achieving its objectives. Instead, the war has devolved into a grinding, attritional conflict in which neither side has achieved a decisive victory.
Ukraine’s military, thanks in large part to billions of dollars in Western aid and advanced weaponry, has mounted a fierce defense. The arrival of sophisticated US and European arms, including HIMARS rocket systems, advanced artillery and tanks, has enabled Ukraine to launch counteroffensives that have recaptured significant territory, including around the strategic city of Kherson and parts of the Donbas region. Ukraine’s forces have also targeted critical Russian military infrastructure, both on the battlefield and, increasingly, within Russia itself, including drone strikes on Moscow and attacks on Russian supply lines.
In contrast, Russia’s military has faced a series of humiliating setbacks. Despite its numerical and technological advantages, Russia has struggled with poor logistics, low morale, and an underestimation of Ukrainian resilience. The Ukrainian army, bolstered by highly motivated volunteers and international support, has consistently outperformed expectations. As a result, Russia has been forced to mobilize conscripts and engage in brutal tactics, including widespread bombing of civilian infrastructure, to compensate for its lack of progress on the battlefield.
It is within this context that Putin’s nuclear threats must be understood. The increasing desperation of the Russian president, combined with the military’s poor performance, may explain why he feels compelled to resort to nuclear brinkmanship. By issuing veiled nuclear threats, Putin may hope to achieve two key objectives: stopping Western military aid to Ukraine and creating enough fear to force Ukraine into negotiations on Russia’s terms.
Western Military Support: The Thorn in Putin’s Side
One of the most significant factors behind Ukraine’s continued success in resisting Russian aggression is the substantial military aid it has received from the West. The United States, in particular, has played a leading role, providing billions of dollars in security assistance, advanced weaponry, and training for Ukrainian soldiers. European nations, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland, have also contributed heavily to Ukraine’s defense efforts.
This influx of Western military support has undoubtedly tipped the scales in Ukraine’s favour. Ukrainian forces have not only managed to hold back Russian advances but have also launched counterattacks that have reclaimed significant swathes of territory. The war has transitioned from being a purely defensive struggle to one in which Ukraine is now actively seeking to liberate occupied areas.
For Putin, this is a nightmare scenario. The Russian president had hoped that his invasion would lead to a swift victory, with minimal resistance from Ukraine and little involvement from the international community. Instead, the opposite has occurred: Ukraine has rallied international support, and Russia’s military has been bogged down in a protracted conflict.
Putin's nuclear rhetoric can thus be seen as a last-ditch effort to halt this tide of Western support. By raising the specter of nuclear war, Putin is essentially trying to create enough fear and uncertainty in Western capitals that they will reconsider their commitment to arming Ukraine. He may hope that the threat of a nuclear escalation will force the US and its allies to pause their aid, fearing the potential consequences of further antagonizing Russia.
Is Putin Bluffing?
While Putin’s nuclear threats are certainly alarming, there is reason to believe that they may be more bluster than genuine intent. First, it is important to recognize that nuclear war would be catastrophic not only for Ukraine but for Russia itself. The use of nuclear weapons, even on a limited scale, would almost certainly provoke a massive international response, likely including military intervention from NATO. This would spell disaster for Russia, which is already struggling to maintain its conventional military campaign.
Furthermore, Putin’s nuclear threats have become a recurring feature of his rhetoric throughout the war. From the early days of the invasion, the Russian president has consistently hinted at the possibility of nuclear escalation if the West continued to support Ukraine. Yet, despite these threats, there has been no indication that Russia is actually preparing to use its nuclear arsenal.
Many analysts believe that Putin is using nuclear threats as a form of psychological warfare, attempting to sow fear and uncertainty in the minds of Western leaders. By constantly reminding the world of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, Putin may hope to deter further Western involvement in the conflict without actually having to resort to nuclear weapons.
However, while it is possible that Putin is bluffing, the danger remains that even the mere suggestion of nuclear use could lead to unintended escalation. In a conflict as volatile as the one in Ukraine, miscalculations and misunderstandings could have dire consequences. This is why Western leaders must continue to take Putin’s threats seriously, even if they believe he is unlikely to follow through on them.
The Future of the War: Will Putin’s Nuclear Gambit Work?
Ultimately, Putin’s nuclear rhetoric is a sign of his growing desperation. The war in Ukraine is not going as he had planned, and his military is struggling to achieve its objectives. Meanwhile, Ukraine, with the support of its Western allies, continues to fight back, reclaiming territory and weakening Russia’s position.
While Putin may hope that his nuclear threats will deter further Western support for Ukraine, the reality is that such a strategy is unlikely to succeed. Western nations have shown remarkable unity in their support for Ukraine, and there is little indication that they will back down in the face of Russian threats. In fact, Putin’s nuclear rhetoric may have the opposite effect, galvanizing even more support for Ukraine as the West seeks to counter Russian aggression.
As the war drags on, Putin faces a difficult choice: either continue escalating the conflict, potentially leading to even greater international isolation and domestic unrest, or seek a diplomatic solution that allows him to save face. For now, however, the Russian president seems intent on playing a dangerous game of nuclear brinkmanship, hoping that the threat of annihilation will force the West to rethink its support for Ukraine.
In conclusion, Putin’s nuclear threats are a reflection of his failure to achieve his objectives in Ukraine through conventional means. As the war continues to grind on, the Russian president may find that his nuclear gambit is not enough to stop the tide of Western support for Ukraine. Instead, it may further isolate Russia on the world stage, while pushing Ukraine’s allies to double down on their commitment to the defense of Ukrainian sovereignty.
The writer of this article, Dr. Richmond Acheampong, is a journalist, columnist, public relations expert and a journalism and media studies academic. He holds a PhD in Journalism and teaches at Christian Service University. Email: [email protected]