After France's withdrawal, three likely changes in Mali

Eight years have passed since the French army launched its operations in Mali at the request of Mali's interim government at the time.

This country was then going through a political and humanitarian crisis which highlighted the persistent grievances of certain parts of the populations of the north.

The immediate objective of the mission was to prevent separatist and criminal groups from advancing towards Mali's capital, Bamako, and to safeguard the country's sovereignty until an international peacekeeping force became operational.

Operation Serval quickly turned into a regional counter-terrorism operation, dubbed Barkhane.

After the conflict dragged on for years, in June 2021 a second coup within a year led to the resignation of President Bah Ndaw and Prime Minister Moctar Ouane. Colonel Assimi Goita, who took the lead in the August 2020 coup, was declared interim president.

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a gradual withdrawal of Operation Barkhane troops. Already, before the coup, anti-French sentiment in Mali had grown and French public opinion had disapproved of the military operation.

A few years later at the beginning of the year 2022, one week the Russian military invasion in Ukraine. France and its African and European allies have confirmed that they will withdraw the 2,400 French soldiers from Malian territory while maintaining a smaller European force in place.

They said they would "continue their joint action against terrorism in the Sahel region".

This withdrawal was to last four to six months before the center of French operations in West Africa was relocated from Mali to Niger.

The total impact of the French withdrawal is difficult to estimate at this stage; it will depend on the ability of regional and international actors to fill the security vacuum.

The jihadist groups could feel encouraged, as some claim, or, on the contrary, could resume talks with the transitional government, since the "occupier" is gone.

As observers of French and European security policy in Africa, we expect this latest measure to bring about fundamental security transformations in the region.

Beyond the uncertainties, France's withdrawal will have fairly predictable effects, namely the emergence of a new security vacuum, a deeper sense of disaffection between the junta and European partners, and new obstacles to development and humanitarian efforts.

A new security vacuum

The French withdrawal means a loss of military capabilities – especially helicopter gunships and field hospitals.

Peacekeepers, UN and African peacekeepers, and European partners relied on these capabilities to protect their troops in Mali. To continue peacekeeping operations, other allies should make up for this shortfall.

The French operation Barkhane and the multinational Task Force Takuba are the most directly involved in the fight against jihadist terrorist organizations in Mali.

The mandate of the UN mission, Minusma, is limited to the implementation of the Algiers peace agreements of 2015, on the conflict between the Malian government and the rebel groups based in the north of this country, and to the protection of civilians.

The French withdrawal will likely impact Minusma which has already suffered more casualties than any other ongoing peacekeeping mission in the world.

Experts point in particular to France's air power, one of the most effective control systems for countering jihadist groups.

The military junta and part of the population rely on Russian mercenaries to ensure government security. The capacity of the Wagner mercenary group to “compensate” for the French withdrawal and to reinforce the efforts of the central government in terms of counter-terrorism is debatable. Indeed, this group has a habit of exploiting political instability for its own economic interests.

Such cooperation also has political and diplomatic consequences due to international condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

European mandates questioned

Even before France announced its withdrawal, Europe's strategic approach to the Sahel was showing signs of failing. The Malian army has refrained from making significant reforms in the security sector. International cooperation failed to strengthen civilian control, and could not prevent coups in 2020 and 2021.

The Malian military junta has postponed the elections to 2025 and Russian mercenaries have arrived in Mali. These events have led European governments to doubt whether and how to continue their engagement in the Sahel.

Sweden has announced its immediate withdrawal from Task Force Takuba and Minusma by 2023. Germany's new defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, said it's hard to imagine Germany's armed forces remaining in a country where the government makes them feel unwelcome.

Development without security?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine could complicate the situation, as European countries are likely to redirect their attention and resources towards NATO commitments.

From a logistical and political point of view, maintaining a military presence in Mali could become difficult, but a total withdrawal of the military – including the contributions of European troops to Minusma included – would be premature.

This could also have implications for European countries' commitment to development and humanitarian aid. A deterioration in the security situation could undermine stabilization efforts.

Difficult decisions to make

The change in the Sahelian security landscape after the French withdrawal also offers an opportunity to reflect on the different types of international engagement in Mali. It requires a well-coordinated military strategy with regional players, such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union.

European actors, in particular, should not repeat the mistake of sidelining ECOWAS as was the case after 2013. Promoting the G5 Sahel as the main regional security actor has proven insufficient, as this organization is still struggling to find its place in the region and is highly dependent on French aid.

Instead of a heavily militarized approach, a human-centred approach is needed, as it would put human security at the forefront, foster civil society and strengthen decentralized governance institutions.

The Malian military junta can consider the French withdrawal as a first success. This withdrawal may be welcomed by Malians who have been frustrated with the lack of improved security over the years.

However, Mali's security and development challenges persist. The military junta must decide whether to opt for international isolation or to work for peace, development and better living conditions for all Malians.

If it chooses the second option, it will need the support of regional and international partners.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

By Benedikt Erforth, Senior Researcher, German Development Institute And

Julian Bergmann, Senior Researcher, German Development Institute