Whose Words Do Nigerians Trust? The 2027 Contenders ‎

The wider trust picture. The Africa Polling Institute's 2026 survey found that 51% of Nigerians have significant trust in religious leaders and 45% in traditional leaders, against 28% for the Tinubu government.

72% had little or no trust in the government, down from 83% in 2025. [2] Whoever wins the race starts from low public confidence in politicians.

The four contenders
Bola Tinubu (APC). The incumbent. APC chairman Nentawe Yilwatda says no party has a more credible candidate and that the opposition cannot withstand a side-by-side comparison of records. Critics point to the trust deficit above.

Atiku Abubakar (ADC). He is the African Democratic Congress candidate, running with Rotimi Amaechi. His spokesperson has publicly attacked the credibility of a rival projection, questioning its sample size and methodology.

Peter Obi (NDC). He is on the Nigeria Democratic Congress ticket with Rabiu Kwankwaso. He maintains he won the 2023 election despite the legal outcome, but says he would accept the 2027 result if the process is free, fair and credible.

Seyi Makinde (APM). The Oyo governor has emerged as the Allied Peoples' Movement's presidential candidate. FCT Minister Nyesom Wike dismissed the ambition as "dead on arrival" and denied any PDP–APM alliance. The PDP's internal dispute is still unresolved.

What the "trust" polls say. The two recent polls point in opposite directions:

The Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll (69,110 responses, closed 7 September) put Tinubu on 35.41%, Obi on 33.86% and Atiku on 26.67%.

A Tinubu Must Go movement online poll of 109,799 respondents gave the Atiku/Amaechi ticket 73.6% and Obi/Kwankwaso 22.3%.

The second poll was run by a movement opposed to the incumbent, and both polls were open online with no verified sample. They tell us about each camp's online reach, not about the electorate's trust.

Why words matter in this race. An earlier survey cited by BusinessDay claimed 72% of Nigerians believe government leaders lie. voters judge candidates by whether past promises were kept, so records on security, the economy and coalition commitments will weigh more than slogans.

Conclusion. Nigerians are sceptical of every candidate's word. Trust will be earned by verifiable delivery and by candidates keeping their agreements with each other. Until a rigorous poll asks the trust question directly, claims that any candidate is "the most trusted" are partisan statements and not findings.

Mustapha Bature Sallama
Medical/ Science Communicator,
Private Investigator, Criminal Investigation and Intelligence Analysis,

International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding. (USIP)

[email protected]
+233555275880

References
Leadership, "New study shows Nigerians' growing trust deficit in government institutions": https://leadership.ng/new-study-shows-nigerians-growing-trust-deficit-in-government-institutions/

Leadership, "Study shows increasing distrust in government institutions": https://leadership.ng/study-shows-increasing-distrust-in-government-institutions/

The Eagle Online, "2027: Atiku, Obi, Duke, Makinde no threat to Tinubu's re-election – APC declares": https://theeagleonline.com.ng/2027-atiku-obi-duke-makinde-no-threat-to-tinubus-re-election-apc-declares/

The Guardian Nigeria, "2027 Presidency: Atiku tops Obi, others in online poll": https://guardian.ng/politics/2027-presidency-atiku-tops-obi-others-in-online-poll/

Legit.ng, "2027 Election: Atiku's Camp Reacts to Tinubu Victory Prediction in 20 States": https://www.legit.ng/politics/1728730-2027-election-atikus-camp-reacts-forecast-predicts-victory-tinubu-20-states/

Politics Nigeria, "2027: Tinubu Leads Obi, Atiku in Oxford-Metro Poll" (12 Sept 2026): https://politicsnigeria.com/2026/09/12/2027-tinubu-leads-obi-atiku-in-oxford-metro-poll/

Premium Times, "2027: Makinde emerges APM presidential candidate, pledges to reform national security": https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/ssouth-west/884046-2027-makinde-emerges-apm-presidential-candidate-pledges-to-reform-national-security.html

The Guardian Nigeria, "Makinde declares for 2027 presidency, Wike rejects PDP-APM alliance": https://guardian.ng/?p=2839928

Tribune Online, "2027: Tinubu edges Peter Obi by 1.55% in Oxford-Metro poll" (12 Sept 2026): https://tribuneonlineng.com/2027-tinubu-edges-peter-obi-by-1-55-in-oxford-metro-poll/

Vanguard, "Tinubu-Must-Go poll puts Atiku ahead of Obi, others for 2027" (Sept 2026): https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/09/tinubu-must-go-poll-puts-atiku-ahead-of-obi-others-for-2027/

BusinessDay, report on the 2025 survey: https://clone.businessday.ng/?p=966356