From Denial To Goma: Tracking Reports Of Joseph Kabila , M23 & Paul Kagame's Rwanda-A Call For AU Verification

Not civil war per se but managed resource war

Eastern Congo is not in a conventional civil war. What many analysts describe is a managed resource war. This war has an architecture. For 30 years, that architecture, according to successive UN Group of Experts reports, has involved a Rwandan logistical dimension and a Congolese political dimension. The question today is whether reports of those two dimensions openly merging require independent investigation.

The Allegation: An African Army and Alleged Intelligence Leak

Circulating on social media are unverified reports claiming former South African President Thabo Mbeki alleged that former DRC President Joseph Kabila misled him regarding ties to M23, and that intelligence shared with Kinshasa may have been compromised, with fatal consequences for SANDF soldiers deployed under SADC.

This article has not independently verified that President Mbeki made this statement. No verified video, transcript or official statement from President Mbeki's Foundation has been found at the time of writing. If such a claim was made, it would be a grave allegation concerning African collective security.

The African Union and SADC should, in the interest of transparency, seek to verify whether such a statement was made and, if so, investigate its substance. SANDF losses in eastern DRC concern all of SADC. To date, no public AU investigation into this specific social media claim has been announced.

When President Tshisekedi later made similar accusations against Kabila, South Africa and later Eswatini hosted Kabila. This raises a Pan-Afrikan question: we once sheltered liberation fighters from apartheid; how do we handle hosting a former head of state accused by his successor of aligning with an armed group?

The Alliance: From Denial To Open Operation In Goma - What Is On Record

For two years Kabila's camp denied links to M23. Two public developments changed the narrative:

First, President Paul Kagame, in an interview with Jeune Afrique, when asked about Kabila's reported presence in M23-controlled Goma, was quoted as saying:

"I would welcome him... all those who wish to take part in the struggle for a stable Congo are welcome".

If accurately quoted, this statement, in diplomatic reading, would suggest Rwanda is open to anti-Kinshasa political actors transiting through its territory. This requires contextual verification from the full Jeune Afrique interview.

Second, October 2026: Kabila launched the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN) in Goma, a city currently under the control of the AFC/M23 alliance. Goma is widely reported to be held by AFC/M23.

Kinshasa's response is on public record: accusation of treason and insurrection, a Senate vote to strip lifetime senatorial immunity, and a reported death sentence in absentia by the High Military Court for war crimes, treason, murder, torture and sexual violence linked to M23. Kabila has publicly called this political persecution.

Kigali continues to deny direct command over M23, despite successive UN Group of Experts reports that allege coordination. See UN S/2024/432 and S/2024/969, which allege support but which Rwanda disputes.

The UN Group of Experts on the 2012-13 M23 rebellion also documented use of Ugandan territory as rear base and transit corridor. Its current role, if any, requires fresh independent investigation.

What is verifiable: Kabila is reported to be in Goma. Goma is reported to be held by AFC/M23. AFC/M23 is alleged by UN experts to receive external backing. Whether this constitutes a closed regional political-military project is a matter for independent investigation, not for this opinion to conclude.

The Economy: Why The War Does Not End
Ethnicity is widely used as a narrative mask. According to UN reports, minerals are a key engine.

M23 was defeated in 2013. It resurfaced in 2022. According to UN Group of Experts reports S/2024/432 and S/2024/969, it resurfaced with superior training, communications and weaponry that, in the Experts' assessment, it could not acquire without external support. This is an allegation, disputed by Rwanda.

It has taken Goma and surrounding mining sites, most critically the Rubaya coltan mine - which some analysts estimate supplies a significant share of the world's coltan - along with gold, cobalt and lithium corridors.

According to UN Group of Experts reports S/2024/432 and S/2024/969, M23 documented control of Rubaya from May 2024, with over 150 tonnes of coltan allegedly smuggled monthly via networks that the UN alleges lead through Rwanda. The Congolese government alleges up to US$1 billion per year in minerals smuggled via Rwandan and Ugandan channels, an allegation both countries deny. Human Rights Watch and UN reports document a pattern of rebel mining and regional export networks - a pattern that requires judicial proof in each instance.

The Alleged Objective
According to analysts of the conflict economy, the objective may not be to govern Goma, but to hold permanent mining corridors and use them as leverage. This economic dimension helps explain why the conflict in eastern DRC is often described as one of the deadliest since World War II, with millions dead and displaced.

The Pan Afrikanist Verdict: What Is The Way Forward

1. No sovereignty negotiation with proxies while external backing is alleged.

Kinshasa's position to refuse national dialogue with AFC/M23 and its new FRN front while Rwanda's alleged role as backer remains unresolved deserves Pan-Afrikan consideration. According to UN experts, AFC/M23 is a Rwanda-backed force - an allegation Kigali denies. You cannot negotiate Congolese sovereignty with a group whose logistics are alleged to be externally controlled without first addressing that allegation. Any peace must first allow for independent verification of external backing, then allow dialogue among Congolese themselves.

2. African accountability, not selective justice.

If credible evidence proves Kabila shared allied intelligence and now leads a coalition with an armed group alleged to be Rwanda-backed, he must face an African-led judicial process, not only a Kinshasa military court that his supporters will call political. Equally, if UN reports alleging Rwandan support to M23 and mineral smuggling are proven, the AU must act. Pan-Afrikanism cannot be immunity for presidents.

3. Reject imported peace for plunder.

We cannot condemn plunder in one breath and outsource peace-brokering for the same mines to non-African capitals in the next. The Luanda and Nairobi processes have stalled, critics argue, because they avoid the resource question. A real Pan-Afrikan solution must be African-led, must include transparent control of mineral supply chains, and must centre the Congolese mother in Rutshuru who wants to farm without fear.

Conclusion
In this matrix, as alleged by UN experts and as claimed by Kinshasa and denied by Kigali and by Kabila, one actor would bring what the other is said to lack: Kabila would bring Congolese political networks and legitimacy from the former ruling party; Kagame's Rwanda is alleged to bring territory, logistics and a regional route. One element, if the allegations are true, cannot operate at scale without the other.

Until Africa names these allegations openly and demands independent verification of both the Mbeki intelligence claim and the Rubaya plunder chain, peace will remain a pipe dream for Eastern Congo.

Opinion Disclaimer:
This is an opinion piece based on publicly available UN Group of Experts reports, media interviews, and official government statements, all of which contain allegations disputed by the parties named. It calls for independent verification and does not assert guilt.

6. Madondo (African Teacher) [email protected]