Nigeria Begins 42-Day Ebola Watch After Imported Case, WHO Criteria Apply ‎

Nigeria has started a 42-day countdown that will decide when it can declare its latest Ebola outbreak over. The Health Minister, Professor Muhammad Ali Pate, said the earliest possible date is 7 December 2026, provided no new case emerges.

The case
Nigeria confirmed its first imported case of Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease on 20 October 2026. The patient is a 42-year-old woman who had recently returned from Uganda. She reached Abuja on 3 October via Addis Ababa and developed symptoms four days later.

The source of her infection remains uncertain, but genomic sequencing released on 23 October showed closely related strains in her case and in Kenya's first confirmed patient.

The patient and her husband were medically evacuated to Switzerland on Monday, 26 October. The WHO confirmed that Nigeria now has no Ebola cases.

What the 42 days mean
Under WHO criteria, an outbreak can generally be declared over after 42 consecutive days without a new case. The count starts from the second negative test of the last confirmed patient, or from the patient's death where applicable.

The period is twice the generally accepted maximum incubation period of 21 days. The WHO has said that in 98 percent of cases, incubation lasts no longer than 42 days.

Pate said the December 7 date depends on the NCDC and the WHO validating the countdown, and warned that any new case would restart it. His priorities are active monitoring of all identified contacts, prompt investigation of alerts, and stronger readiness.

Why vigilance matters
Kenya has reported nine confirmed infections and two deaths in the wider outbreak. The links between the Nigerian and Kenyan cases show how quickly the virus can cross borders by air. Bundibugyo is also a different strain from Zaire Ebola, the strain behind most past outbreaks.

Nigeria has done this before. In 2014 it had 20 cases in total, eight of them fatal, and the WHO declared it Ebola-free after 42 days with no new cases. That success rested on rapid contact tracing and isolation, and the same discipline will decide the outcome now.

For Ghana and the rest of West Africa, the lesson is that port-of-entry screening, laboratory capacity and community reporting must stay active throughout the 42 days. An imported case can arrive on a routine flight.

Mustapha Bature Sallama
Medical/Science communicator, Private Investigator, Criminal Investigation and Intelligence Analysis,United States Institute of Peace (USIP), [email protected] +233555275880

Sources and References
Nairametrics (26 Oct 2026). "FG says Nigeria could declare Ebola outbreak over by December 7." https://nairametrics.com/2026/10/26/fg-says-nigeria-could-declare-ebola-outbreak-over-by-december-7/

Arise News (26 Oct 2026). "Nigeria Could Declare Ebola Outbreak Over By December 7." https://www.arise.tv/nigeria-could-declare-ebola-outbreak-over-by-december-7/

Business Post Nigeria (Oct 2026). Report on the FCT Ebola case and WHO criteria. https://businesspost.ng/?p=216683

Leadership Newspapers (26 Oct 2026). Report on Pate's statement. https://leadership.ng/?p=740098

Aboki Forex News (Oct 2026). "Nigeria targets December 7 to declare Ebola outbreak over." https://abokiforex.app/show-news/fg-says-nigeria-could-declare-ebola-outbreak-over-by-december-7

Reuters, via Stabroek News. On the WHO's 42-day rule and incubation data (2014 report, used for background). https://www.stabroeknews.com/?p=307989

NBC News. "WHO Declares Nigeria Ebola-Free After 42 Days With No Cases" (2014, used for background). https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna229536