How and why is Russia’s defence industry booming in Africa and the Middle East?

The 2026 Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) exhibition in Pretoria and the El Alamein International Airshow in Egypt highlighted a broader Russian strategy to expand its defence-industrial presence across Africa and the Middle East. Rather than relying only on conventional weapons exports, Russia is increasingly presenting a model built around complete equipment lifecycles: platforms, weapons, spare parts, maintenance, training, repair, technical support, technology transfer, localisation and potentially licensed production. AAD 2026, held at Air Force Base Waterkloof from September 16-20, brought together more than 250 exhibitors from 30 countries, with South African authorities expecting over 30,000 trade visitors and delegations from more than 50 countries. Other procurement documentation described participation by more than 450 companies. The official exhibitor base included Russia, China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, Germany, France, Italy, the United States, Britain, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Canada, Japan and South Korea, making Pretoria an important competitive marketplace for defence-industrial relationships.

Russia arrived with one of its broadest African displays. Rosoboronexport, the defence-export arm of Rostec, presented 494 exhibits, including 30 military products covering unmanned systems, loitering munitions, small arms, anti-armour weapons, helicopters, combat trainers, naval craft, air weapons and specialised security equipment. The company said it was implementing or preparing more than 20 African projects involving maintenance, repair and production localisation across ground forces, navies, air forces and air-defence organisations. This potentially changes the traditional export model from Russia manufacturing weapons and African countries importing them into a longer industrial relationship in which African partners could increasingly undertake maintenance, overhaul, component production, assembly and technical support, according to a report by analytical publication Russia’s Pivot To Asia.

The El Alamein International Airshow, held September 8-10, reinforced this approach and added a significant Middle Eastern dimension. The event brought together about 250 companies from 50 countries and 135 aircraft. Russia's delegation included 35 defence organisations displaying more than 500 military exhibits and over 80 systems. United Aircraft Corporation, Almaz-Antey, High-Precision Systems, KBP, KBM, Tactical Missiles Corporation, Shvabe and Kalashnikov were among the participating Russian organisations. A particularly important commercial development was Rosoboronexport's announcement of the first export contract for more than 10 Yak-130M trainer-combat aircraft. Russia also used the event to showcase the Su-57E, which made its African airshow debut, as well as the Ka-52E, Yak-130M, Lancet-E, KUB loitering munitions, RUS-PE electronic-warfare system and counter-UAV technologies. The S-71M and S-71K were also presented as systems combining characteristics of cruise missiles and lower-cost attack drones. Military and industrial delegations from countries including Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Kuwait, alongside Egypt, Turkey and the UAE, demonstrated the wider regional audience.

The report by Russia’s Pivot To Asia argued that unmanned systems are becoming one of the most important elements of Russia's African export proposition. At Pretoria, Russia displayed the Lancet-E reconnaissance-and-strike complex, Skat-350M reconnaissance UAV, KUB-2E loitering munition, RUS-PE system and Orlan-10E and Orlan-30E reconnaissance UAVs. The commercial logic is not simply to sell individual drones but to provide an integrated chain involving surveillance, target identification, strike capability, ground-control infrastructure, training, maintenance and replacement systems. Kalashnikov promoted the KUB family, including the KUB-10ME, whose declared range exceeds 100 kilometres and whose warhead weighs 11 kilograms. Company representatives reported interest from African delegations, particularly because of the systems' relatively low cost and comparatively straightforward operation. Special Technology Center also confirmed that Orlan-10E and Orlan-30 systems were already operating somewhere in Africa, although the customer countries were not disclosed. This provides Russia with an existing operational reference base for unmanned technology on the continent.

Russia's small-arms proposition provides another route into African markets. Kalashnikov displayed AK-19, AK-203, AK-204 and AK-15 rifles, AK-15K and AK-19K variants, the PPK-20, Lebedev pistols and Chukavin SVCh sniper rifle, together with thermal sights and imaging attachments. The modernised RPG-29M added an anti-armour component. The industrial significance lies not only in rifle sales but in the possibility of recurring ammunition, optics, components, repair and manufacturing requirements. Russia's AK-203 production experience in India provides a precedent for moving from exports toward technology transfer and eventual localisation. South African defence company Milkor has also argued that African manufacturers require partnerships with external producers because many local industries lack some capabilities necessary for completely independent production.

Aviation offers another potentially durable industrial ecosystem. Russian companies promoted the Mi-171Sh transport helicopter, Mi-28NE attack helicopter and Yak-130 combat trainer. Aircraft sales can generate long-term demand for engines, spare parts, weapons, maintenance, overhaul, simulators and training. The Yak-130M, whose prototype first flew in June 2025 with an upgraded sighting system, aircraft-defence suite and expanded weapons capability, is particularly relevant because the basic Yak-130 already operates in several African and Asian countries. The broader Mi-8/17 family also provides Russia with an established installed base. Russian Helicopters has previously estimated that approximately 600 Russian-made helicopters were operating in Africa, creating a potential foundation for regional MRO and support networks. Previous cooperation involving South Africa's Denel and Russian Helicopters envisioned a Sub-Saharan servicing hub, while Egypt's Helwan Factory for Developed Industries was equipped and trained for Mi-8/17 overhaul, with 44 helicopters covered by the programme.

Russia is also extending its proposition into maritime and wider security markets. The BK-16E high-speed transport and landing craft can support command, transport, fire support, search and rescue and medical evacuation missions. Russia additionally displayed equipment for detecting explosives, hazardous chemicals, biological threats and narcotics, broadening its potential customer base beyond armed forces to border services, police, customs, emergency organisations and critical infrastructure operators.

The expansion of Russia's domestic defence industry provides the production base for this export strategy. On September 18, President Vladimir Putin said Russia's military-industrial complex consisted of more than 5,000 organisations and employed more than 3.5 million people. He said weapons and ammunition production had increased by more than 22 times since the beginning of the war, radar deliveries had risen almost fivefold, armoured-weapons production 2.5 times and UAV production several-fold, with some categories increasing by dozens of times. Putin also placed Russia's defence export-order portfolio above $70 billion. These are Russian government figures and do not represent Africa-specific contracts, but they illustrate the scale of the industrial base Moscow is seeking to connect with foreign markets.

Africa nevertheless remains highly competitive. SIPRI estimates that African imports of major arms fell 41% between 2016-20 and 2021-25. During 2021-25, the United States supplied 19% of African major-arms imports, China 17%, Russia 15% and France 8.3%. Russian global major-arms exports also declined 64% between the two periods, reducing Russia's global share from 21% to 6.8%. Algeria remains the clearest established Russian market, with Russia accounting for 48% of Algeria's major-arms imports in 2020–24, although Russian deliveries were 81% lower than in 2015–19. Egypt remains important for aviation, helicopters, UAVs, air defence, naval systems and maintenance. South Africa offers greater potential as an industrial and servicing partner than as a major Russian weapons market, while Angola has an established Russian helicopter relationship. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger represent markets more focused on UAVs, surveillance, communications, small arms, protected mobility, training and sustainment. Nigeria and Senegal also offer opportunities, although China supplied 22% of Sub-Saharan Africa's major arms during 2021-25.

The financial value of Russia's current African defence business cannot be reliably calculated from public information. SIPRI's transfer data measure major-arms volumes rather than contract values, while Russian companies generally do not publish country-by-country financial details for sensitive military cooperation. A historical benchmark is more than $1.7 billion in Rosoboronexport contract documents signed in Central, Western and Southern Africa during 2020 and early 2021, but this should not be treated as the present value of Russian defence exports to Africa. Similarly, Russia-Africa trade reached $27.7 billion in 2025, but that figure covers civilian and defence-related trade and therefore cannot be used as a defence-market valuation.

Overall, AAD 2026 and El Alamein suggest that Russia's African and Middle Eastern strategy is increasingly centred on lifecycle economics rather than isolated weapons sales. The emerging model combines existing Russian equipment with newer UAVs, loitering munitions, helicopters, trainers, air-defence and counter-UAV systems, followed by maintenance centres, spare-parts networks, technical training, local assembly and selected manufacturing. The strongest recurring opportunities therefore lie in UAVs, loitering munitions, helicopters, small arms and ammunition, thermal optics, air defence, counter-UAV systems, training and MRO. The central proposition is a three-layer commercial chain: maintain the large installed base of Russian-origin equipment, introduce newer Russian systems, and progressively build African industrial capacity around them. If Russia succeeds in developing its announced localisation and maintenance projects, its defence relationship with Africa could become less dependent on individual major contracts and more dependent on long-term industrial ecosystems generating revenue through servicing, upgrades, ammunition, spare parts, training, technology and manufacturing throughout the equipment lifecycle.

Stephen Rozario, a researcher and columnist.