Wike’s cover-up and Tinubu’s 2027 permutations

Since its release to the public, the composition of the list of members of the Presidential Campaign Council of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has been a subject of public discussion and analysis. Many observers perused the long list, searching for familiar names. A few names resurfaced from apparent political oblivion while others were missing, but the absence of one name became conspicuous – the Minister of Federal Capital Territory, Ezebunwo Nyesom Wike. Many people who expected him to hold a key position in the campaign began to speculate about why his name was omitted.

To be fair to him, the FCT Minister has been consistently vocal in his support for President Tinubu’s government. However, he says he remains a member of a faction of the rival People's Democratic Party (PDP). For many months now, the FCT Minister has functioned as a self-appointed spokesperson for the President, summoning the media at will to respond to anyone or any group whose comments or actions were perceived to hurt President Tinubu’s government or person. He was quick to deploy media arsenals and launch verbal missiles against such enemies of the President. To that end, an appointment as a Director General of the Presidential Campaign organization should have been well deserved. Truth be told, Wike probably invited journalists for live coverage more than the Minister of Information, who is supposed to be the government's official spokesperson.

The fact that the Minister's name was missing, therefore, came as a bit of a surprise to his supporters and those who have been following his activities closely. Typical of him, the FCT Minister went to the media to quickly say that he would have rejected the offer to head the Presidential campaign if President Tinubu had approached him. He tried to explain that taking such positions could become a distraction. He gave flimsy examples about how politicians who took such positions ended up losing their states during the elections. Many people bought into the Minister's explanation and saw them as part of his commitment to ensure that the President scores the maximum number of votes in Rivers State and the FCT, where his influence looms large.

However, a few observers fault the Minister's explanation as a self-serving, face-saving exercise of someone in a hurry to cover up something. They insist that Mr. Wike actually waited for the appointment and was disappointed that his name was dropped. Those familiar with the issues within the President's inner circle insist that some people might have plotted to outwit Wike. Fingers point at Senator Hope Uzodimma, Governor of Imo State and Chairman of the Progressive Governors' Forum, as the person who led the plot. It is public knowledge that there is no love lost between the two politicians. He and Wike have engaged each other in a protracted political struggle for supremacy. Recently Wike’s political son, Siminalyi Fubara, was engaged in a temporary scuffle with his political father, it was Governor Uzodimma who was handy to offer Fubara necessary solidarity.

In addition to his emergence as Secretary of the Presidential Campaign Council, Governor Uzodimma doubles as the Director General of Renewed Hope Ambassadors, an earlier outfit set up by President Tinubu. These two appointments point to what the President thinks of his political capabilities. His prominence as head of the secretariat of the national campaign suggests that he might have displaced Wike in President Tinubu’s inner caucus. As the leader of the Progressive Governors Forum, Uzodimma’s national influence and ability to mobilize resources from his colleagues will be a huge asset.

Yet, unknown to Mr. Wike the President political priorities are fast changing. There are indications that his support base in northern Nigeria is declining. That reality is potentially unsettling. The appointment of Senator Abdulaziz Yari as Director General is therefore a smart decision for the ruling party. Yari himself is a man known for his generosity and deep pockets, twin weapons that can be easily deployed to shore up the ruling party’s support base in the north.

Minister Wike’s reference to his membership of an opposition political party is a cheap explanation. He can sound however dismissive but it obvious that he is unhappy. Rather than smouldering beneath and appearing outwardly triumphant, he must find positive ways to deal with his misery. He should stop engaging in a fruitless effort to denigrate the office of the Director General of a Presidential Campaign by casting aspersions at imaginary enemies. There are other ways to divert public attention while retaining the confidence of supporters. He can invest some efforts and resources in assembling his rainbow coalition to further unsettle his opponents. He is free to set up an independent campaign council to fight to win Rivers state for Tinubu. The contests ahead in 2027 appear to be fierce and contentious. The loss of one single battle is not the end of the war. Wike should strategize and move on.

Dr. Uche Igwe is a political economy analyst. He can be on @uche_igwe