Can UK's hard-right Farage bin financial probe with by-election win?

Farage resigned as MP for Clacton-on-Sea on 8 July amid a probe by the parliamentary watchdog into his finances, freeing him up to call a by-election. 

Clacton, a seaside resort northeast of London that voted overwhelmingly for Brexit in the 2016 referendum, is expected to re-elect Farage by a large majority.

With typical showmanship, the 62-year-old politician pitched the vote as a "people versus the establishment by-election" fight to win the seat he has held since 2024.

Running on an anti-immigration platform, one of his party's recent controversial policies includes deploying the Royal Navy to return small boats of migrants to France.

The proposal came days after tens of thousands of migrants entered the Spanish territory of Ceuta in north Africa from neighbouring Morocco, reigniting Europe's debate over undocumented migration.

France's Interior Ministry slammed the plan, calling it "a violation of French sovereignty as well as a violation of maritime law and international law". Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, speaks at a press conference in London, 3 August.

Parody candidates

Farage is one of 34 candidates in the running in Thursday's vote – the highest number of any UK parliamentary election.

However, none of the United Kingdom's mainstream political parties is fielding candidates, having dismissed the move as a stunt designed to stall the parliamentary inquiry.

That has left the door open to a host of independent and parody candidates.

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One of them is Count Binface – the alter-ego of Oxford-educated comedian Jon Harvey –  who could snatch a fifth of the votes, according to a Survation poll.

A self-described "intergalactic space warrior and leader of the Recyclons from Sigma IX", Count Binface's manifesto mixes smart political satire with comedic promises to cap croissant prices, improve WiFi on UK trains and ban loud snacks in cinemas.

Investigation into gifts

Before resigning, Farage had been facing growing scrutiny over the non-disclosure of gifts – including a £5 million ($6.6 million) donation from crypto-currency billionaire Christopher Harborne and undeclared financial support from convicted fraudster George Cottrell.

MPs are obliged to declare any financial support they received up to a year before their election.

But Farage claimed the donation from Harborne was a gift for his security, made before he became an MP.

London's Met Police are also investigating donations made to Reform by Cottrell's mother.

"The people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions," he said.

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Farage's resignation means the parliamentary investigation into his finances has been paused. But if he is re-elected it will undoubtedly be resumed once parliament's summer recess ends in September.

"Ultimately all it does is buy him time," Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, told French news agency AFP. "He'll probably make it back into parliament but at that point the investigation will start up again. So he can run, but he can't hide."

If Farage is found guilty of serious misconduct and faces sanctions, there could be another by-election.

Popularity waning

Reform's popularity has been slipping, with recent surveys showing the ruling centre-left Labour party has overtaken it again in national voting polls.

"Clacton could be very important, it could show that... Nigel Farage and Reform UK have peaked," Pete Dorey, a professor of politics at Cardiff University, told AFP.

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"If he only wins narrowly, or with a much lower number of votes compared to the 2024 election, then this would suggest that his popularity was declining, and that his credibility has been damaged."

As the UK's political landscape fragments, Count Binface has become more than a comic sideshow, and is urging voters to protect democracy.

A post on his website reads: "Behind every one of these campaigns is a simple argument: that showing up matters, that a ballot is worth casting even when you know how the night ends." 

(with AFP)