IMF projects Ghana’s Debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 53% by end of 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s debt to GDP ratio will increase to 53.0 percent by the end of 2026, up from 45.3 percent recorded in 2025.

The forecast is contained in the Fund’s latest Fiscal Monitor Report, released on the sidelines of the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington DC.

While the report does not spell out the exact drivers behind the expected rise, it indicates that the projections are based on a post debt restructuring outlook.

Data from the Bank of Ghana shows that Ghana’s debt to GDP ratio stood at 61.8 percent in 2024, with total public debt estimated at GH¢726.7 billion.

By 2025, the ratio had dropped significantly to 45.3 percent, alongside a reduction in total debt to GH¢641 billion.

Despite this improvement, analysts caution that the outlook remains fragile, with risks linked to borrowing patterns, exchange rate movements and overall economic growth.

Market observers warn that increased borrowing and further depreciation of the cedi could worsen the debt trajectory and place additional strain on the economy.

In April 2026, the government raised about GH¢2.7 billion through a 7 year bond issuance, marking a return to long term domestic borrowing after the Debt Exchange Programme.

Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has outlined measures aimed at sustaining debt levels, including expanding concessional financing, rebuilding the Sinking Fund, implementing debt reprofiling and buyback programmes, and improving transparency in debt reporting.

Ghana is targeting a return to a moderate risk of debt distress by 2028.

Globally, the IMF has warned of mounting public debt pressures, projecting that worldwide debt could reach 100 percent of GDP by 2029, and has urged countries to adopt credible and well sequenced fiscal measures to manage growing financial vulnerabilities.