Thinking Out Loud: What Does John Mahama’s Reelection Mean for Ghana?

John Dramani Mahama, former President of Ghana, has been a prominent figure in Ghanaian politics for over two decades. After serving as vice president and president from 2012 to 2017, Mahama was defeated in the 2016 and 2020 elections by Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). However, Mahama’s aspirations for a political comeback remained strong as he sought the presidency again in 2024 under the National Democratic Congress (NDC). He has been reelected for the presidency starting on January 7, 2025. Mahama’s return to power raised numerous questions about the direction Ghana would take under his leadership. Given his previous tenure and the current political and economic climate in Ghana, Mahama’s reelection could have significant implications for the country. This analysis explores what a Mahama presidency could mean for Ghana, examining the possible impacts on economic policies, governance, social development, and international relations.

Economic Management and Debt Control
Ghana’s economy has faced significant challenges over recent years, including high inflation, a growing debt burden, and an unprecedented currency depreciation. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war further strained the economy, leading to increased borrowing and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio. Although Mahama’s previous administration also faced economic difficulties, with debt levels rising, which sparked public concerns about his economic management capabilities, economic analysts argue that President Mahama managed the economy better than his predecessor – President Akufo-Addo. The new Mahama administration might bring a shift in economic management style. He has frequently criticized the incumbent (or I should say the outgoing) government’s handling of the economy and proposed more controlled fiscal management. Before his reelection, Mahama promised that he would prioritize policies that reduce Ghana’s dependency on foreign loans. His reelection could see him implementing measures to control public spending and focus on revenue generation through efficient tax systems and domestic resource mobilization.

However, Mahama’s track record in economic management has drawn skepticism from some Ghanaians, who remember issues such as the power crisis (or “dumsor”) and rising inflation during his previous term. It is fair to indicate that before Mahama exited the presidency on January 7, 2017, “dumsor” was no longer a high-profile socio-economic problem in Ghana. For Mahama’s economic policies to succeed, he would need to establish fiscal discipline, build public trust in his economic plans, and work on improving public sector efficiency. Gaining the confidence of international financial institutions, creditors, and investors would be critical, especially given Ghana’s current fiscal challenges.

President Mahama has hinted at prioritizing economic stabilization and debt restructuring, possibly by renegotiating terms with international creditors. His return could also mean a shift in approach toward the International Monetary Fund (IMF), given his previous experience working with the IMF on structural reforms. A Mahama administration would likely emphasize fiscal discipline, increased domestic revenue mobilization, and private sector engagement to address unemployment and stimulate growth. However, his record on managing debt could raise concerns among economic analysts, as he would need to strike a balance between economic expansion and fiscal prudence to ensure long-term stability.

Infrastructure Development and Job Creation

Mahama is widely recognized for his focus on infrastructure development, with projects ranging from roads and bridges to hospitals and schools. During his first term, his administration implemented major projects, such as the Kwame Nkrumah Interchange, Terminal 3 at Kotoka International Airport, and multiple regional hospitals. His emphasis on infrastructure created jobs and improved connectivity within Ghana, leaving a legacy in physical development. Infrastructure will likely remain a priority in Mahama’s second administration, with a potential focus on completing unfinished projects and expanding investment in areas like transportation, energy, and healthcare. Infrastructure investments could boost employment, stimulate local economies, and improve public service delivery. However, Mahama would need to ensure that these investments are sustainable and contribute directly to job creation for Ghana’s youth, a demographic facing high unemployment rates. This is where his 24-hour economic strategy could prove to be quite beneficial.

The 24-hour economy policy is envisioned as a strategic initiative by the forthcoming Mahama administration to encourage and enable specific businesses to operate around the clock, ideally in three shifts of eight hours each, by fostering an environment that enhances productivity, competitiveness, and well-paying jobs. This initiative will primarily be based on Mahama’s broader goal of creating sustainable employment opportunities for Ghanaians. The strategy will involve modernizing and mechanizing agriculture, offering incentives for private sector growth, advancing agro-processing and manufacturing, and evolving Ghana into an economy focused on import replacement and export expansion, among other objectives. The policy, if well implemented, will significantly support President John Mahama’s efforts towards reducing imports and boosting exports. This initiative could also stabilize the national currency, enhance foreign reserves, lower inflation and interest rates, generate additional job opportunities, and improve the quality of life for citizens.

That said, President Mahama would still need to balance infrastructure and job creation with fiscal responsibility. Infrastructure projects are costly, and in Ghana’s current economic climate, there may be concerns over how Mahama would fund such developments. To avoid increasing public debt, the reelected Mahama might need to explore public-private partnerships (PPPs) and ensure transparency in project financing. Balancing infrastructure investment with Ghana’s debt concerns would be crucial to avoiding the economic pitfalls associated with extensive borrowing.

Approach to Foreign Relations and International Partnerships

Ghana’s foreign policy has traditionally focused on fostering regional stability, engaging with development partners, and maintaining a non-aligned stance. Even though President Akufo Addo’s foreign policy skewed largely to the West, Mahama’s reelection could bring continuity in Ghana’s traditional diplomatic engagements but with nuanced shifts based on his past relationships and policy priorities. Mahama’s previous tenure saw strong diplomatic engagements with West African states, China, and international organizations. He maintained strong ties with ECOWAS and was involved in regional peacekeeping efforts, reflecting Ghana’s commitment to regional security and stability. His reelection would likely mean a continuation of Ghana’s active role in ECOWAS, especially in addressing regional challenges such as political instability, extremism, and economic integration within West Africa.

Regarding international partnerships, Mahama has expressed the need for a balanced foreign policy, particularly in navigating Ghana’s relationships with Western countries and China. Ghana’s dependency on foreign aid and investment would require Mahama to balance these interests strategically, ensuring that foreign investments align with Ghana’s development priorities. While the NPP’s approach has leaned toward leveraging partnerships with the United States and the European Union, Mahama’s past engagements suggest that he may adopt a pragmatic approach, prioritizing economic diplomacy and aligning foreign investments with his development agenda, especially his 24-hour economy policy.

Mahama has previously emphasized the need for Africa to reduce its dependency on external actors and strengthen intra-African trade. This aligns with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is headquartered in Accra, Ghana. A Mahama administration might place greater focus on AfCFTA implementation, working to boost Ghanaian exports to African markets and encourage foreign investment in Ghana’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Mahama’s foreign policy would likely emphasize diversification of partnerships beyond traditional allies, with increased engagement with both Western nations and emerging partners such as China and India. Again, given Ghana’s current economic situation, securing international financial support will be essential. Mahama’s criticism of the incumbent administration’s handling of IMF negotiations indicates that he may adopt a different approach to foreign aid and loans, potentially seeking more favorable terms and prioritizing sustainable debt restructuring. His approach would need to balance Ghana’s sovereignty with the necessity of securing international assistance, a challenge given Ghana’s high debt burden.

Governance, Accountability, and Transparency

Governance and anti-corruption are crucial issues in Ghanaian politics, with both citizens and international stakeholders expressing concerns about transparency and accountability. Mahama’s prior administration was marred by several allegations of high-profile corruption scandals, which contributed to his monumental defeat in 2016. Consequently, his reelection would likely be met with scrutiny on how he intends to tackle corruption and improve governance. In recent years, the president-elect has acknowledged the importance of addressing corruption, indicating that he would strengthen institutional frameworks and enhance transparency in public spending. Thus, Mahama’s second administration could focus on reinforcing anti-corruption agencies, such as the Office of the Special Prosecutor (OSP) and the Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice (CHRAJ), by providing them with the resources and autonomy needed to pursue cases of corruption. However, restoring public confidence would require President Mahama to demonstrate a decisive break from the past by promoting accountability within his administration.

Furthermore, Mahama’s government could improve public sector reform, emphasizing efficiency and meritocracy in public service recruitment and promotions. These reforms would be critical in rebuilding trust in the political system, as well as in signaling to the public that his administration is committed to resetting the system to adequately address corruption with tangible results. Ultimately, Mahama’s success in promoting good governance will hinge on his ability to address past criticisms and present a renewed vision of accountability. In other words, while Mahama has promised reforms, some Ghanaians remain skeptical about his commitment to anti-corruption, as past efforts were seen as insufficient. To counter this, Mahama would need to demonstrate tangible progress early in his administration, with concrete steps to improve transparency and uphold accountability in government contracts, appointments, and spending. His success in building public trust would depend on his ability to deliver real changes in governance and address the underlying causes of corruption.

Social Policies and Youth Empowerment
Social development and youth empowerment are other areas where Mahama’s presidency could have substantial effects. During his previous term, Mahama initiated several programs aimed at improving healthcare, education, and poverty reduction. One of the most notable was the Community Day Senior High School project, which sought to improve access to secondary education in underserved areas. Given Ghana’s ongoing challenges in education, healthcare, and social welfare, a Mahama second term would likely emphasize initiatives in these areas, with potential adjustments to reflect the lessons learned from his prior tenure. Ghana’s youth population is rapidly growing, and youth unemployment has become a pressing issue. Mahama’s return to power may also bring a renewed focus on job creation and entrepreneurship initiatives targeting young people. His past administration introduced programs such as the Youth Enterprise Support (YES) Fund to promote youth entrepreneurship, and his reelection could see an expansion of similar programs aimed at skills development and job creation.

Mahama has already indicated his support for the Free Senior High School (SHS) policy, a flagship initiative introduced by the Akufo-Addo administration. However, he has critiqued aspects of the program’s implementation and suggested that, if elected, he would reform it to address issues related to quality and sustainability. Mahama’s administration could, therefore, focus on expanding resources for education infrastructure, enhancing teacher training, and improving the overall quality of education. In healthcare, Mahama’s presidency could see renewed efforts to improve the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), which has faced funding challenges in recent years. Enhancing NHIS coverage and investing in healthcare infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, would likely be priorities. Furthermore, Mahama could focus on poverty alleviation by expanding social protection programs such as LEAP (Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty), aiming to address income inequality and improve the livelihoods of Ghana’s marginalized populations.

While social programs are essential, they require significant financial resources, which could be constrained by Ghana’s current economic limitations. Mahama would need to ensure that social policies are not only ambitious but also financially sustainable. Implementing policies that effectively target youth employment and social inclusion without compromising fiscal stability would be one of his key challenges.

Public Sentiment and the Challenge of Legacy

A key element of Mahama’s reelection campaign was the perception of his legacy, both positive and negative. His previous administration’s achievements in infrastructure development were often cited by supporters as evidence of his commitment to modernization. Conversely, critics pointed to economic challenges and corruption scandals as reasons for caution. Mahama’s success in winning over voters was largely dependent on his ability to address concerns about these past issues, present a renewed vision for Ghana, and appeal to the large, youthful electorate concerned about unemployment and social progress. Therefore, Mahama’s second administration needs to present a vision focused on “restoring dignity and prosperity” by addressing unemployment, enhancing economic stability, and promoting good governance. If early actions of the new administration can communicate a credible plan that emphasizes continuity in successful policies while addressing previous shortcomings, Mahama could rekindle public trust and present himself as a unifying figure who has learned from experience. His return to office could also set a precedent for Ghana’s political landscape, reflecting a shift in voter expectations. By offering policy adjustments that resonate with both past and current needs, he could appeal to Ghanaians who seek a combination of infrastructure investment and sustainable development practices. His reelection could thus become a test of Ghanaian democracy, illustrating how voters are willing to place their trust in a former president with the hope that he can deliver the reforms necessary to advance the nation’s progress.

Conclusion
John Mahama’s reelection would likely bring both continuity and change to Ghana’s political and economic landscape. On one hand, his return could reinvigorate infrastructure development, enhance Ghana’s regional diplomacy, and bring a renewed focus on social policies aimed at reducing unemployment and improving public services. However, Mahama’s track record on economic management and governance transparency became one of the major concerns during the electioneering campaigns, and his administration would face significant challenges in balancing fiscal responsibility with the ambitious development goals he proposed to pursue.

To succeed, Mahama would need to demonstrate a strong commitment to addressing Ghana’s debt issues, improving governance, and ensuring inclusive economic growth. His approach to infrastructure, job creation, and foreign policy would have to be carefully aligned with Ghana’s current economic realities. Mahama’s reelection has the potential to set Ghana on a course toward development and stability, but its success would depend on his ability to build public trust, implement sustainable policies, and foster a transparent and accountable government. The Ghanaian public, shaped by the experiences of past administrations, would hold him to high expectations, making his presidency a critical juncture in Ghana’s journey toward a more resilient and prosperous future.

For many Ghanaians, like me, Mahama’s return to office represents both familiarity and the possibility of a reformed leadership. His success in addressing past critiques and presenting a vision of inclusive, sustainable development will determine the extent to which his administration can meet the aspirations of Ghana’s citizens. Ultimately, Mahama’s reelection reflects a nation weighing the past against the future, with the hope that experience can guide Ghana toward a more prosperous and democratic future.

Congratulations on your reelection, Mr. President.