Suhum NDC Chairmanship Survey: Afasi leads Quashigah in delegate survey

Afasi has emerged as the leading candidate in the race for the Suhum National Democratic Congress (NDC) constituency chairmanship, according to a survey of 1,516 delegates, although more than a third declined to disclose their preferred candidate.

The survey conducted by Credence Analytics, which assessed delegates’ preferences ahead of the constituency election, recorded 528 respondents backing Afasi, representing 34.8% of the total number surveyed.

Quashigah placed second with 406 delegates, equivalent to 26.8% of the survey population, while Antoinette and Moro recorded 51 and eight preferences respectively.

However, 523 delegates, representing 34.5% of respondents, did not disclose their preferred candidate, leaving a significant proportion of the electorate unaccounted for in the declared preferences.

Afasi leads among delegates who disclosed their choices

An analysis of the 993 delegates who disclosed their voting preferences places Afasi in the lead with 53.2% of declared support.

Quashigah follows with 406 preferences, representing 40.9% of delegates who disclosed their choices.

Antoinette secured 51 preferences, accounting for 5.1%, while Moro recorded eight, representing 0.8% of disclosed preferences.

Afasi therefore leads Quashigah by 122 delegates among those who declared their preferred candidate, a difference of approximately 12.3 percentage points.

The figures establish Afasi as the frontrunner among respondents who disclosed their choices, with Quashigah emerging as the closest challenger.

Undisclosed preferences could influence the outcome

Despite Afasi’s lead, the number of delegates who declined to disclose their preferences presents a significant consideration in interpreting the survey results.

The 523 undisclosed responses account for 34.5% of the 1,516 delegates surveyed, making them a substantial segment of the constituency’s surveyed electorate.

Their eventual choices could influence the outcome of the chairmanship contest, depending on how they vote and whether their preferences differ from the pattern recorded among respondents who disclosed their intentions.

The survey does not establish how the undisclosed delegates intend to vote. Consequently, their responses cannot be allocated to any of the candidates or treated as support for a particular contender.

The findings should therefore be viewed as a snapshot of declared preferences rather than a definitive prediction of the election result.

What the figures reveal

The survey highlights a contest in which Afasi holds the strongest declared position, with Quashigah maintaining a substantial share of disclosed support.

The difference between the two candidates suggests that Afasi has an advantage among respondents willing to identify their preferred candidate. However, the large proportion of undisclosed responses limits the extent to which the findings can be used to forecast the final result.

Antoinette and Moro trail the two leading candidates, with their combined 59 preferences representing approximately 5.9% of the delegates who disclosed their choices.

Further information on the survey’s methodology, including how respondents were selected, when the survey was conducted and how preferences were collected, would help establish the extent to which the findings reflect the wider delegate population.

Conclusion

The survey of 1,516 delegates places Afasi first in the Suhum NDC constituency chairmanship race, with 528 declared preferences, followed by Quashigah with 406.

Antoinette recorded 51 preferences, while Moro secured eight. A further 523 delegates did not disclose their choices.

Although Afasi leads by 122 delegates among those who disclosed their preferences, the substantial number of undisclosed responses means the final outcome remains uncertain.

The actual election result may differ from the survey findings, depending on how delegates vote.

Survey summary