Analysis Of Lower Manya Constituency Where NPP Performs Well In The Dangme Land Yet ...‘I Can’t Think Far’,

06.12.2016 LISTEN

The Lower Manya Constituency is part of the Seven Dangme constituency in the Eastern region. The Lower Manya people speak Krobo with their siblings in the Yilo-Krobo area. In the eastern region, the constituency is amongst the three Krobo constituencies. As my research in the Dangme land political trend deepens, I realized the Lower Manya constituency should be one area that the New Patriotic Party should have been able to win the seat in the Dangme land. This is partly because it is the best performing constituency in terms of Parliamentary as the NPP candidates have always taken the second spot since 1996 unlike the other Dangme constituencies where other parties even took the second spot at the expense of the NPP.

Secondly, the NPP parliamentary candidates have also rat raced with the National Democratic Congress parliamentary candidates yet they have not been able to win the seat and this I keep on wondering why? Could it be that the NPP is not doing something right in the constituency?

In my research, it is the only Dangme constituency that has been dominated by one household for long. That is the Agyarko’s family (Tab 3, Tab 4, Tab 5)and more people have opined that the Agyarko’s family are not typical Krobos . Interestingly, one woman who performed excellently and was even tipped to win the seat was later let down by the people at the last minute (Tab 3). I heard a funny story where it was alleged that some people said the woman did not perform the Krobo Dipo rite so they could not entrust their land into her hands.

This is funny but interesting to see how the Krobos take things on a different note. The Agyarko’s family however brought a strong force into the political terrain in the constituency with interesting numbers since 2004, 2008 and 2012. Could what some sections of the people are saying that the Agyarko’s family is not typical Krobos have accounted for their woes in the constituency?

Surprisingly, one member of the Agyarko’s family who lost the election in 2008(Tab 4) Kwabena Agyarko who decided to relocate and contested at the Ayawaso West Wuogon on the same party’s ticket won the election to become the Member of Parliament . His first attempt won him the seat. So what is the problem with the Krobos ? Are they allergic to the NPP or they just don’t want the NPP?

Well, the people said they want a local or home boy to lead them. This year , they have a local boy to lead them in the person of Samuel Nuertey Aryetey known as Teddy. So I can’t wait to see what happens in this constituency though in my previous research I have said it is not part of the seats I considered to be shaky in the Dangme land. I can’t wait to see how things turn.

Though the constituency has performed well by remaining in the second spot, there is more room for improvement to be able to win the seat for the NPP. For instance, in 1996, the difference between NDC and NPP was 19,045(Tab 1). In 2000(Tab 2) it was 4,585, in 2004(Tab 3) it was 3,343 when Mrs. Agyarko Kusi set in and she did very well and nearly won the seat for NPP. In 2008(Tab 4) it was 4,697 and in 2012(Tab 5) it was 8,186.

Speaking to Rite fm recently, Teddy, said, traditionally, the Lower Manya Krobo seat has ‘belonged’ to the NDC, he was confident that he being a “home boy”, could win the seat for the NPP.

Teddy who stated emphatically that he is ready to face any candidate that the NDC put forward to contest him come the 2016 parliamentary elections.

Teddy Braino indicated that he was the best candidate that the NPP has ever put forward despite the fact that previous candidates did their best but to no avail. He said the National Democratic's dominance over Krobo areas for the past twenty three years has been nothing but retrogression and this was the first time for the people to give the NPP its first ever electoral victory come December 2016.

He said he would institute a special education scheme if voted into office to give Krobo youth special access to education. According to him, this was the time to bridge the education gap in his constituency and he was the man to do that job.

Teddy Braino admitted that his turmoil had faced some internal differences but said “things are now stable.” The New Patriotic Party has never won any of the three Krobo constituencies in the eastern region namely Lower Manya Krobo, Upper Manya Krobo and Yilo-Krobo. The National Democratic Congress has held all three seats since multi-party democracy was restored in 1992.

Analysis of the Election results in Lower Manya Constituency since 1996

Tab 1.1996
Michael Nyaunu Teye NDC 24,763 59.50%
Kodjiku Lawrence Kpabitey NPP 5,718 13.70%
Robert Kwesi Nartey PNC 482 1.20%
Tab 2. 2000
Michael Nyaunu Teye NDC 13,876 53.00%
Henry DemaNarh NPP 9,291 35.50%
Gabriel Nater Apaflo Accam CPP 1,600 6.10%
Thomas Narh Batsa NRP 1,062 4.10%
Robert Nartey Kwesi PNC 361 1.40%
Tab 3. 2004
Michael Nyaunu Teye NDC 18,571 52.70%
Mrs DifieAgyarko Kusi NPP 15,228 43.20%
AnimAmartey Francis Cecil Ind 704 2.00%
Emmanuel Kwame Adjei Okrah CPP 286 0.80%
Robert Nartey Kwesi PNC 238 0.70%
Cecilia Kosi Akuerter EGLE 221 0.60%
Tab 4. 2008
Michael Nyaunu Teye NDC 19,497 55.92%
Emmanuel Kwabena Agyarko NPP 14,800 42.45%
Foster Emmanuel Okley CPP 283 0.81%
Peter Teye Batsa PNC 229 0.66%
Abraham Teye Larkotey DFP 58 0.17%
Tab 5. 2012
Ebenezer Okletey Terlabi NDC 24,367 53.02%
Dedo Agyarko Kusi NPP 16,181 35.21%
Hon. Michael TeyeNyaunu Ind 3,658 7.96%
Joshua Tetteh Narh PPP 1,488 3.24%
Atter Joseph Korley GCPP 131 0.29%
Foster Emmanuel Okley CPP 92 0.20%
Peter TeyeBatsa PNC 40 0.09%
Projection of what is likely to Happen in 2016

Teddy on the ticket of the NPP has to do extraordinary works before he can wrestle or even dream of winning the seat outright in 2016 as Hon. Terlabi appears to be a force to reckon with. Teddy needs additional 8, 186votes from Hon. Terlabi’s camp before he can win the seat from Terlabi’s previous votes in 2012(Tab 5)

If he is able to achieve this then it means Hon. Terlabi is likely to drop to 16,181 votes and Teddy goes to 24,367 and above to win the seat in 2016.

But judging from Hon. Terlabi’s performance in 2012 where he added additional 4,870 votes to what was previously available in 2008 when Hon. Nyaunu was the then candidate of the NDC.

If he is able to perform well again in his second term then he is likely to win with a whopping 29,237 votes.

On the part of the NPP they were only able to manage 1,381 votes in 2012 to what was available in 2008. So, if based on this performance then it is likely Teddy will gets 17,562 votes in 2016.

Fig 1
Percentage Performance of NDC and NPP (1996-2012) Parliamentary Elections

Fig 2

fig 3

Fig 4

Findings of the study
The NPP Teddy has to do extraordinary works to be able to win the seat judging from the 2012 performance of Hon. Terlabi(Fig 2)

However, if he is able to poll the additional votes then he is likely to win the seat (Fig 3)

The Lower Manya constituency cannot be considered as a shaky seat for the NPP now unless Teddy performs a last minute magic or alternatively the people decide to vote Terlabi out.

The Agyarko’s family had Dedo polling more votes (Fig 4) in 2012

Reference
I Am Ready For Any Candidate – Teddy Braino : Rite 90.1FM : http ...

ritefmonline.org/i-am-ready-for-any-candidate-teddy-braino/?upm_export=doc

Nov 21, 2015 –
- See more at: http://citifmonline.com/2015/07/02/ndcs-agenda-5050-is-a-mirage-npp/#sthash.bj8frI4Y.dpuf

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