Why NPP Supporters should be more Cautious than ever in Choosing the Flagbearer for 2012

Ghanaians seem to have shown a few things so far in terms of patterns of voting behaviour in the still young 4th Republic. They seem to have a hard time voting for anyone who runs for president the first time around. Contrary to some nonsense about the penchant of the voters to elect Presidents whose name start with John, I do not think it is smart to discuss that as an intelligent issue. The only assumptions in my analyses are that I am only referring to the two major parties in Ghana since the 1990s in this article and deliberately ignoring all others. Also, I am not going to talk about the reasons why the electorate vote the way they seem to do or why certain candidates lose at certain times when they run or win at other times. I will stick mainly to voting patterns.

It almost seems like no incumbent president loses elections in Ghana. Also, the electorate seem to want continuity until they vote out the ruling party after 8 years, when that party is not running an incumbent president any longer. It is also plausible that devoid of an incumbent, the electorate chooses the person who has previously run for president the most. The evidence of how Dictator Rawlings got elected in 1992 against Professor Adu-Boahen and then in 1996 against Mr. Kufuor, how President Kufuor failed to win in 1996 against incumbent President Rawlings, but then won in 2000, when he ran against then VP Mills, how Candidate Mills ran in 2004 and lost to incumbent President Kufuor and finally how now President Mills won against first time Candidate Nana Akufo-Addo, all support my conclusions.

So, how is the NPP to maximise its chances at choosing the person most likely to win in 2012 or 2016, if it fails to win in 2012. The evidence shows that if President Mills runs against Nana Akufo-Addo again, the NDC is likely to win. However, the caveat is how things will be if President Mills' reported health problems incapacitates him, he cannot run for a second term and/or his government is an abject failure that the voters, for the first time want to change the ruling party after just one term. Some of these things are real possibilities because the NPP came in 1st on December 7th and got over 49 % of the votes on both December 7th and 28th, even though the lost eventually, unlike the NDC that did much worse in 2000, in its defeat after 8 years at the helm, coming in second in the first round and losing by about 10 % in the 2nd round. This means that the NPP was not summarily rejected in 2008/2009 as the NDC was in 2000. Also, based on reading between the lines in the reports in 2008 even from the NDC itself, I believe that President Mills' health problems are worse than the people have been told. In any of these scenarios, Nana Akufo-Addo and not a new NPP candidate is likely to win in 2012, based on the electorate's voting patterns.

The worst thing for the NPP is to re-nominate Nana Akufo-Addo, who is 64 years old, although in seemingly good health (I have met him in person) and he goes on to lose to President Mills in 2012. Since, it will be almost impossible to re-run Nana when he is 72 in 2016 and the real possibility that VP Mahama may take over from President Mills, again, whose health issues are likely worse than the NDC lets on and run as an incumbent in 2016 against a first time NPP candidate. In that scenario, the NDC will likely have the upper hand in 2016. For the NPP, even if President Mills completes his 2nd term, if he wins in 1012, a VP Mahama may be running against a first-time NPP candidate in 2016. The NPP would have batted away the opportunity to be re-running in 2016 an experienced candidate, first nominated for 2012, as the voters seem to prefer.

So, in conclusion, I think the NPP should and the NPP activists should cautiously take the time and not really settle on a flagbearer frontrunner until perhaps 2011. At most, we should promote two main contenders, Nana Akufo-Addo and a futuristic candidate from 2009 till 2011. As an aside, I hope to write other articles on a list of a couple of leaders from which the NPP should look to pick this futuristic candidate and NO, I do not think that Mr. Kyeramanteng should be on that list. On the other hand, if it seems the NDC is failing and/or President Mills cannot/will not run in 2012 then we should definitely pick Nana Akufo-Addo, to maximise the party's chances of winning in 2012. However, we should know that choosing Nana Akufo-Addo (whom I personally supported and admire) for 2012 as the NPP flagbearer, is a high risk proposition because if the NPP loses in 2012 but cannot run him again in 2016 then the party would have given away one of the key advantages it may have in 2012, which is an experienced general election candidate. Therefore, the NPP needs to be more careful than ever before in choosing its 2012 candidate or risk losing in 2012 and worsening its 2016 winning prospects.