Ghana's Presidential Term Debate: What Economics Says

Ghana's constitutional review is now at a pivotal stage, as the country is considering one of its most critical changes since its independence from Britain in 1957, several constitutions were reviewed till the 1992 constitution which provide 4 year presidential term.

The Constitutional Review Committee (CRC), led by Prof Henry Kwasi Prempeh, recommends that the presidential term be increased from four to five years as the current four-year term limits the president's ability to effectively implement policies. The government has agreed to that and has proposed to increase the period of office from four to five years, and the same has been extended to the Parliament.

The former President, John Agyekum Kufuor, has supported the idea, arguing that a 4-year cycle is not enough time to implement programmes. In its argument, it's strong, but when tested on basic economic theory, it could very well be exactly the opposite.

The Economics Lens: Short-Run vs Long-Run

In economics, short run is a period of production during which at least one of the resources used to produce a product is fixed, and where the use of a resource implies efficiency. In the long run, all factors are variable, so scale can be used but so can waste, delay and complacency.

A presidential term is a production cycle in relation to governance. The issue is not about time; it's about how much time does it take to produce efficiently?

The Case for 5 Years: The Promised Pros

Proponents of the 5-year term make a classic long-run argument:

1. Policy Gestation: Large infrastructure, industrialization, and fiscal reforms need more than 3 effective governing years (with year 1 for settling and year 4 for campaigning) to mature.

2. Reduced Election Costs: Ghana spends heavily every 4 years. A 5-year cycle reduces the frequency of election expenditure and its inflationary disruption.

3. Policy Continuity: Less political uncertainty could encourage long-run private investment.

These are valid long-run considerations. In theory, more time should mean more output.

The Case for 4 Years: Why Short-Run Efficiency Wins

However, modern efficiency theory and goal-setting theory turn that logic on its head. Here is why Ghana should keep 4 years:

1. Parkinson's Law and Efficiency: In economics, work expands to fill the time available. A 4-year term creates short-run discipline. With fixed time, factors of production — cabinet appointments, budget allocation, ministerial KPIs, must be used efficiently. A 5-year term makes time variable, removing that pressure. Governments do not necessarily do more in 5 years; they often do the same amount, more slowly.

2. Goal-Setting Theory: Behavioural economics shows that specific, difficult, time-bound goals produce higher performance than vague, long-term goals. A 4-year contract with the people is a SMART goal Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound. A 5-year mandate dilutes urgency. When a president knows accountability is 48 months away, not 60, planning becomes quarterly, not vaguely "in our second term."

3. The principal-Agent Problem: In the long-run, the agent (government) has more time to diverge from the principal's (citizen's) interest. The short-run contract of 4 years is a powerful monitoring tool. It reduces moral hazard. Voters can fire non-performing managers faster. Extending to 5 years extends the period where inefficiency can hide behind "we are still implementing."

4. Opportunity Cost of Bad Governance: The long-run cost of an underperforming government is higher in a 5-year system. Ghana loses 25% more time an entire additional year of GDP growth, job creation, and institutional trust before correction is possible. In short-run economics, you cut your losses quickly.

5. Innovation Under Constraint: Ghana's most celebrated economic turnarounds — from mobile money regulation to post-COVID fiscal stabilization have happened under short-run pressure, not long-run comfort. Scarcity breeds innovation.

Verdict: Keep the Short-Run to Secure the Long-Run

Ghana's long-run development vision-2057, 30-year infrastructure plans, industrial transformation does not require a long-run presidency. It requires successive efficient short-run presidencies.

The constitution should not change the length of the production cycle to accommodate inefficiency; it should force efficiency to fit the cycle.

A 4-year term says to any president: You have 1,460 days. Plan, deliver, be judged.

That is not too little time to implement programmes. That is exactly enough time to prove you can.

By: Adam Abdul Kadir
Research Fellow
Dibrugarh University, Assam, India