Africa's Business Leaders Are Ready to Trade With Each Other. The Systems Are Not ‎

African executives are betting on their own continent. Preliminary results from the 2026 PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey show that 81.3 per cent of senior business leaders expect their cross-border activity to grow over the next twelve months. Intra-African commerce has overtaken China, Europe and the United States as their main target destination.

The findings were presented at the WTO Public Forum in Geneva on 16 September, in a session convened by Afreximbank and the Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee (PAFTRAC). The survey has grown from 400 respondents in 2021 to more than 2,500 this year, which makes it a significant gauge of executive sentiment.

Rising trade, flat share
Optimism is not yet showing up in the structure of African trade. According to the survey release, intra-African merchandise trade remains stuck at 15 to 18 per cent of total exports, despite the operational rollout of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Absolute numbers are moving, though slowly. Afreximbank's latest African Trade Report estimates intra-African trade at $213.8 billion in 2025, up 5.47 per cent from $202.7 billion in 2024.

Trade is growing, but not fast enough to change the continent's overall pattern. The same report projects that intra-African trade could double within a decade if the AfCFTA is fully implemented.

A tool many do not know about
The survey points to an information gap. While 70.2 per cent of respondents report a tangible operational impact from AfCFTA-related reforms, more than half are unfamiliar with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS). Awareness of the E-Tariff Book, the African Trade Observatory and the AfCFTA's non-tariff barrier reporting tools is similarly limited.

This matters because PAPSS was built to address a core problem. Afreximbank and the AfCFTA Secretariat announced its operational roll-out in September 2021 as a continent-wide platform for clearing and settling intra-African payments.

Before PAPSS, over 80 per cent of cross-border payments from African banks had to be routed offshore for clearing. An instrument designed to cut that friction is unknown to much of the business community it was meant to serve.

The "prejudice premium"
The sharpest finding concerns the cost of money. According to IFC analysis cited by PAFTRAC, risk ratings from Western credit agencies impose an estimated excess premium of $31 billion a year on African sovereign and institutional borrowers.

Professor Patrick Utomi, PAFTRAC's Chairperson, calls this a "prejudice premium." He argues that when an economy actively at war can obtain more competitive financing than a stable, peaceful African sovereign, the system is misreading reality, and that outdated global rules and subjective rating methodologies act as a direct tax on African trade.

The squeeze reaches ordinary traders. Some 57 per cent of surveyed executives describe access to trade finance for cross-border transactions as difficult or very difficult. The IFC puts Africa's SME financing gap at more than $331 billion.

Afreximbank separately estimates a trade finance gap of about $100 billion a year, which it describes as a major constraint on the AfCFTA.These figures measure different things, but they point the same way.

What should change
The survey suggests Africa's trade challenge is no longer mainly a shortage of declarations or ambition. It is implementation, information and the cost of capital.

Three priorities follow:
Awareness: The AfCFTA Secretariat, central banks and trade bodies should take PAPSS and the digital trade tools directly to businesses, including small traders in border towns and markets.

SME finance: Trade finance must reach smaller firms, which carry the bulk of the financing gap.

Credit ratings: African institutions need a stronger voice in how sovereign risk is assessed and priced.

A note of caution
These are preliminary findings, and readers should weigh them accordingly. PAFTRAC is an advocacy platform, and its convening partner Afreximbank is also the developer of PAPSS, so the survey's emphasis on credit-rating bias and payment systems reflects institutional interests as well as data.

The IFC figures reach us only through PAFTRAC, and I could not locate the original IFC publication. The full report, due this month, should show how well the numbers hold up.

The core message still stands. African executives are ready to trade with one another, and most of the remaining barriers are ones African policymakers and institutions can choose to remove.

Mustapha Bature Sallama
Medical/ Science Communicator,
Private Investigator, Criminal Investigation and Intelligence Analysis,

International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding. (USIP)

[email protected]
+233555275880

References
PAFTRAC, "African CEOs express optimism, but credit risk and policy gaps hinder intra-African trade," press release via APO Group, Cairo, 6 October 2026.

PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey 2026, https://PAFTRAC.Afreximbank.com/

WTO Public Forum 2026, Geneva, 16 September 2026 (session convened by Afreximbank and PAFTRAC).

Afreximbank, African Trade Report 2026, as reported by Nairametrics, 25 June 2026: https://nairametrics.com/2026/06/25/afreximbank-intra-african-trade-rises-5-5-to-213-8-billion/

"Intra-African trade rises by 5.5%," The Guardian (Nigeria): https://guardian.ng/business-services/intra-african-trade-rises-by-5-5-as-regional-integration-gains-momentum/

Afreximbank and AfCFTA Secretariat, "Operational Roll-out of PAPSS," 28 September 2021: https://papss.com/?p=1

"Afreximbank launches the Pan-African Payment & Settlement System," HapaKenya, 20 January 2022: https://hapakenya.com/2022/01/20/afreximbank-launches-the-pan-african-payment-settlement-system-to-facilitate-payment-transactions-across-africa/