"50% Say No to Third Term, But Who Comes Next?" The Questions Behind Mussa Dankwah's Mahama Poll

A new poll by respected Ghanaian pollster Mr.Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Secretary of Global Info Analytics, has reignited a constitutional debate Ghana thought was settled: Should President John Dramani Mahama get a third term?

According to the survey, 50% of Ghanaians are against a third term for President Mahama, 40% support it, and 10% are undecided. The numbers are close. The conversation they’ve sparked is even closer.

On the surface, the poll asks about tenure. Underneath, it asks something more uncomfortable for the National Democratic Congress, NDC: Is there life after Mahama?

The Numbers And The Constitution

Article 66(2) of the 1992 Constitution is clear: "A person shall not be elected to hold office as President of Ghana for more than two terms.”

Mahama was elected in 2012 and 2024. A third term would require an amendment, and that amendment itself would need a referendum with 40% turnout and 75% approval. It’s a high bar.

So why is 40% of the country open to it? That’s where the poll gets interesting, and where the questions begin.

Question 1: Is This About Mahama, Or About The NDC’s Bench?

The 40% support figure is striking for a proposal that is constitutionally prohibited. It suggests something beyond policy approval.

In politics, support for extending a leader’s term rarely happens in a vacuum. It often happens when a party, or the public, cannot see a clear successor.

Which raises the question the poll doesn’t answer: Does a significant portion of Ghanaians, and perhaps NDC members, believe there is no other credible candidate to lead the NDC after President John Mahama?

President Mahama remains the NDC’s biggest electoral brand. He won in 2024, and he carries both name recognition and experience. But with 2028 on the horizon, the NDC has not publicly anointed a successor. Names are speculated, but none have the same national pull yet.

If the “yes” voters in Mussa’s poll are essentially saying “we don’t see an alternative,” then the poll is less about the constitution and more about succession anxiety.

Question 2: What Happens After Him?

This is the core of it. Even if 50% say no today, and even if the constitution holds, 2029 will arrive.

If the NDC wins in 2028 with a different candidate, can that candidate hold the coalition together?

If the NDC loses, does the party have a leader who can rebuild in opposition?

If the party has not done the work of grooming and presenting a successor now, will it be scrambling in 2027?

Parties that center themselves on one personality often face an identity crisis when that personality exits. The NPP faced it post-Kufuor. The NDC faced it post-Rawlings. The question now is whether the NDC has learned that lesson.

The 10% undecided in the poll may be the most important group. They are not rejecting Mahama. They are not endorsing a third term. They may simply be waiting to see who else steps up.

Question 3: What Is The Poll Really Measuring?

Polls measure opinion at a moment. But they also shape opinion.

Is this poll measuring genuine desire for a third term? Or is it measuring fatigue with the idea of starting over? Or is it measuring approval for Mahama’s current administration that respondents are translating into “let him continue”?

Without the cross-tabs — age, region, party affiliation, reasons for support/opposition — it’s hard to know. And that matters, because “third term” is a constitutional question, not just a popularity question.

The Road Ahead
President Mahama himself has not called for a third term, and government officials have repeatedly pointed to the constitution. But public opinion, as Mussa’s numbers show, is not fully closed to the idea.

That should be a wake-up call, not for a constitutional amendment, but for political planning. For the NDC, the work is to answer the question implied by that 40%: "Who, after Mahama?"

For Ghana, the work is to ensure that leadership renewal, which Article 66(8) was designed to protect, does not become a crisis of choice.

Because whether it’s 2028 or 2032, the presidency will change hands. The only question is whether the NDC, and the country, will be ready for who comes next.

The author is a regular contributor to News Commentary, GBC's current affairs programme and a columnist with Modern Ghana, an esteemed online news portal