AfDB Tips Ghana for 5% Growth in 2026, Outpacing IMF and World Bank Forecasts

Ghana’s economy is projected to expand by 5 percent in 2026, strengthening further to 5.4 percent in 2027, according to the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) 2026 African Economic Outlook Report. The forecast places Ghana among the stronger-performing economies in West Africa over the next two years.

The AfDB’s projection is slightly higher than the 4.8 percent growth estimated by both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, reflecting the Bank’s confidence in Ghana’s ongoing macroeconomic recovery.

The report anticipates that inflation will end 2026 at 9 percent—higher than the current rate of about 3 percent—signalling expectations of stabilising economic conditions and gradually easing price pressures.

Ghana’s fiscal position is also expected to improve, with the fiscal deficit narrowing from 2.6 percent of GDP in 2026 to 2.2 percent in 2027. On the external front, the country is projected to maintain a current account surplus of 3 percent of GDP in 2026, moderating slightly to 2.7 percent in 2027, underscoring resilience in the external sector despite global uncertainties.

Across the subregion, the AfDB projects West Africa’s economy to grow by 4.7 percent in 2026, driven by strong agricultural output, expanding agro‑processing value chains, and sustained public investment in infrastructure, energy, and transport.

However, the Bank warned that geopolitical tensions, elevated global oil and fertilizer prices, and persistent supply chain disruptions pose significant downside risks to African economies, including Ghana.

The report emphasised the need for African countries to boost domestic revenue mobilisation, deepen regional trade integration, and strengthen fiscal management to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and build long-term economic resilience.