Is China Going to Win the Battle Against India over Bangladesh

On 31 August 1975, China officially recognized Bangladesh as an independent country. But the diplomatic ties started on 4th October of the same year which is on top now. The dynamism of Bangladesh and China's relationships is now a hot topic in South Asian politics. The whole political environment of South Asia is truly centered on Bangladesh which is merely more interesting by the touch of China over the years. The recent rivalry between Bangladesh and India allows China to bring diplomatic ties with Bangladesh to the next level. After the regime change in Bangladesh, they are able to be a key player in South Asian politics. On the 26th of March, the ongoing Visit of the Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus to China would be a phenomenal incident for Bangladesh to enrich its relationship with China for political stability and economic sustainability.

This upcoming visit of Dr. Professor Muhammad Yunus is going to be a huge diplomatic achievement for Bangladesh. Bangladesh shares with India about 4138 km of the border along three sides of its territory, despite that after being ousted the Sheikh Hasina regime, there has been no profound diplomatic achievement with India. Regardless of visiting India first, Dr. Yunus choose to visit China because of creating some sort of pressure on India that might work for Bangladesh on the negotiation table against India in the future. Moreover, there is no doubt about bringing China into the auction to repatriate the Rohingya refugees within a short time. Despite the hostilities in Myanmar, China has a good relationship with both the Junta Government and Rebel groups along with Russia who is another stockholder in this crisis as well. Apart from that, the South Asian political environment will get a new shape through the advancement of Bangladesh-China relationships.

Regarding the military perspectives, according to the Global Fire Power Index(GFPI), Bangladesh is now the world's 37 strongest military power country among 145 countries. From 2019 to 2023 Bangladesh bought 72% of its arms dealings from China which signifies the dependency of Bangladesh on China undoubtedly. However, 36 F-7 contour fighters, two submarines, 4 warcraft, 49 Multiple Rocket Launchers System (MLRS), 4 anti-fire craft, and 281 tanks have been imported from China over the years. Recently a research paper on “National Image of China in Bangladesh” disclosed that with military Technical assistance, Bangladesh is going to set up a “Defence Industrial Base” which will belong to rifles, rocket launchers, MANPADS, and light utility vehicles. That certainly gives Bangladesh a boost to challenge India by military advancement to secure their sovereignty.

Regarding economic sustainability, China has been the prime partner of Bangladesh over the decades. China is the real source of raw materials for Bangladesh. Over the years, China and Bangladesh's bilateral trade has increased significantly; Bangladesh imported $24.1 billion worth of goods to Bangladesh, up from $652 million in 1995 which shows clearly how the Bangladeshi market attracts China. Even China exempted tariffs on 98% of goods while Bangladesh was imported from China. About 1.4 billion dollars in foreign direct investment was made by Bangladesh from China which was 10 times increased than in 2019. China is the key investor in Bangladesh's infrastructure, as Karnaphuli Tunnel, Padma Bridge, Chattogram Seaport, and Mongla Seaport are prime examples here. China is now the fourth largest source of getting loans for Bangladesh. China has been disbursed a $1 billion dollar loan to Bangladesh for the last two years. Even this interim government has an initiative to get a $5 billion dollar loan from China which hasn't been confirmed yet. Noteworthy, Bangladesh was one of the first stakeholders who joined the project “One Belt One Road Initiative”(BRI) in the year of 2016. As a result, Bangladesh has got about $4.45 billion dollar for 35 projects under BRI to develop their transportation, energy, power and communications over the decades. The economic corridor Bangladesh, China, India, and Myanmar (BCIM) is one of the important economic corridors to connect all of these four countries. Being a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Bangladesh aims to foster its economic cooperation, reduce trade barriers and promote investment within the region. On the whole, China has been one of the trusted partners for Bangladesh over the years to maintain its stability in South Asia.

Moreover, during this ongoing visit, Dr. Muhammad Yunus is going to address political relations, foreign loans, connectivity, Teesta's water sharing, etc. Particularly, Bangladesh would prefer to get investment in the health sector to establish a general hospital and investment in the solar energy sector as well. Even Bangladesh expects to revolutionize the industrial sector by getting investment from Chinese commerce institutions. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Bangladesh's Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus discussed reducing interest rates for Chinese loans and enhancing economic and trade cooperation during Yunus's visit to China. Meetings also included discussions on relocating Chinese manufacturing industries, including ready-made garments, electric vehicles, light machinery, high-tech electronics, chip manufacturing and the solar panel industry to Bangladesh, Russian wheat and fertilizer exports, the Rooppur Nuclear Plant project, and Bangladesh's participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative.

Finally, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen said, “This visit would be the most memorable, productive and successful visit in the history of Bangladesh to China”. Even, the president of China Mr. Xi Jinping attaches tremendous importance of Yunus's visit to China as well. This bold statement means how much they want to own Bangladesh which creates huge concern for the Indian side. The researcher of International Relations believes China will surpass Indian hegemony over Bangladesh very soon, which will make sure Bangladesh's position remains strong enough in the South Asian region.

About the Author
Md. Al-Amin is an educator. He completed his post-graduation from the Department of International Relations at Rajshahi University. His research interests are Diplomacy, Foreign policy, Border conflicts, and Security issues.