2023 AFCON: Who needs what to qualify for round of 16?

With exciting fixtures witnessed in the first two rounds of matches in the Group stage of the ongoing Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), round of 16 spots are up for grabs as the teams gear up for the third and final round of matches.

After two rounds, the only teams confirmed as qualified for the next round are Cape Verde and defending champions Senegal who have maintained a 100 % record so far winning all of their matches.

However, with 16 teams expected to book a place in the next round, most of the groups are widely open with many holding their destinies while others need to rely on other results to be sure of qualification.

The permutations are broken down to the core in this article to know who needs what to qualify.

• GROUP A

Current standings of Group A after two games. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Final Group A fixtures

• Guinea Bissau vs Nigeria
• Equatorial Guinea vs Ivory Coast

How can Equatorial Guinea qualify?

• They will sail through with a win (7 points) or draw (5 points) against Ivory Coast
• If they lose, and Nigeria lose, it will be determined on goal difference, since they will remain on four points just as Nigeria. As it stands, Equatorial Guinea hold +2 goals while Nigeria have +1 so the margin of the losses would determine.
• Also, they can go through as one of the best third-placed teams if they lose and Nigeria record a better result.

How can Nigeria qualify?

• Avoid defeat against Guinea-Bissau. Thus, win (7 points) or draw (5 points) and sail through
• They will also sail through with a loss (4 points) if Ivory Coast lose (3 points).
• Even if Ivory Coast win (6 points) and Nigeria suffer defeat (4 points), they could get the pass as one of the best third-placed sides.

How can Ivory Coast qualify?

• Win against Equatorial Guinea and get 6 points
• If they draw (4 points), they would have to hope to make it through as one of the best third-placed teams
• They could also make it through in third place even if they lose. However, it will always depend on the outcome of other groups.

How can Guinea Bissau qualify?

• They stand no chance of sailing through because they've lost their first two matches and even if they win their match against Nigeria and Ivory Coast loses to Equatorial Guinea, the Elephants will be ahead with head-to-head having beaten Guinea-Bissau 2-0 in their opening game.

Group B

Current standings of Group B after two games. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Final Group B fixtures

• Cape Verde vs Egypt
• Mozambique vs Ghana

Cape Verde were the first team to book a place in the round of 16 in the AFCON 2023. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Cape Verde have sailed through to the round of 16. Even a defeat against Egypt will not affect their position on the table.

How can Egypt qualify?

• The Pharaohs will proceed to the next stage with a win (5 points) against Cape Verde.
• They can also qualify if they draw (3 points) and Mozambique's game against Ghana ends in a stalemate as well.
• If they lose (2 points), they would still have to pray for the Mozambique-Ghana game to end in a draw then the margin of their defeat will determine whether they go through as goal difference will become the determiner after all three teams have a similar head-to-head.
• They can also hope for a third-place qualification with a draw or a defeat.

How can Ghana qualify?

• Ghana will qualify if they beat Mozambique (4 points) and Egypt fail to win [draw (3 points) or loss (2 points)]
• They can still qualify as one of the best third-placed teams if they win and Egypt win.
• If they draw and Egypt loses, they will break the tie on goal difference since head-to-head hands no advantage to either side. Thus the margin of Egypt's defeat will determine whether Ghana can qualify with a draw against Mozambique.
• Ghana cannot qualify with a defeat.

How can Mozambique qualify?

• The Mambas will qualify if they beat Ghana and Egypt fail to beat Cape Verde.
• If they win and Egypt wins, they will still stand a chance of sailing through as a third-placed team.
• If they draw, they will be out, unless Egypt lose with a 3+ goal margin, then Mozambique can hope to go through as one of the third-placed teams.
• They will be out if they lose to Ghana

Group C

Current standings of Group C after two games. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Final Group C fixtures

• Gambia vs Cameroon
• Guinea vs Senegal

After beating Gambia and Cameroon 3-0 and 3-1 respectively, the Teranga Lions are through to the round of 16. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Senegal have already qualified for the round of 16 and will only strive to top Group C. They will top the group with a win or draw. They will finish in second place if they lose to Guinea.

How can Guinea qualify?

• Guinea will have to avoid defeat against Senegal to have a full assurance of qualifying. Thus a win (7 points) and a draw (5 points) will be enough regardless of result elsewhere.
• If they lose (4 points) and Cameroon win (4 points), goal difference will be the tiebreaker since they played to a 1- draw when they met. Therefore the margin in their defeat will determine their fate in such instances.
• Even if the goal difference doesn't favour them over Cameroon, four points could be enough to make it to the next stage as one of the best third-placed teams.

How can Cameroon qualify?

• Cameroon can qualify with a second-placed finish if they win with a big goal margin enough to leapfrog Guinea. This works if Guinea lose to Senegal.
• Even if the goal difference doesn't help, a win could still help the Indomitable Lions as they will stand a chance to go through as a third-placed side.
• If they draw, they will finish in third place with just two points but could still depend on the outcomes from other groups to know if that is enough to take them through.
• A defeat will see them head home.

How can the Gambia qualify?

• Gambia can only qualify as one of the best third-placed teams if they win Cameroon and get three points.

Group D

Current standings of Group D after two games. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Final Group D fixtures

• Angola vs Burkina Faso
• Mauritania vs Algeria

How can Angola qualify?

• Avoiding defeat against Burkina Faso would ensure Angola's qualification for the round of 16. Thus a win (7 points) or a draw (5 points) will work for Palancas Negras.
• If they lose to Burkina Faso (4 points), they will still sail through if Algeria fail to beat Mauritania.
• Even if they lose and Algeria win, they could go through as one of the best third-placed teams.

How can Burkina Faso qualify?

• A win (7 points) or a draw (5 points) against Angola will propel Burkina Faso to the round of 16.
• A defeat to Angola (4 points) could still see them sail through if Algeria lose or draw against Mauritania.
• A defeat alongside a victory for Algeria could still see the Stallions in the round of 16 as one of the best third-placed teams.

How can Algeria qualify?

• Algeria qualify if they beat Mozambique (5 points)
• If they draw (3 points), they will depend on other results from other groups to determine if they can still go through with third place.
• They will be eliminated if they lose.

How can Mauritania qualify?

• They can only qualify with a third-place finish but that will only be possible if they beat Algeria (3 points) and results from other groups favour them.

Group E

Current standings of Group E after two games. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Final Group E fixtures

• Namibia vs Mali
• South Africa vs Tunisia

How can Mali qualify?

• A win (7 points) or draw (5 points) is okay to qualify Mali for the round of 16
• They can still go through with a defeat if, South Africa fail to beat Tunisia.
• Qualification could still be possible if they lose and South Africa wins as they will stand a chance as one of the best third-placed teams.

How can South Africa qualify?

• A victory for Bafana Bafana will propel them to the next stage.
• If they draw and Mali wins, they will still qualify
• If they draw and Mali draws, South Africa could go through alongside Mali with a goal-difference advantage.
• A defeat could still be okay if South Africa with three points can navigate through one of the best third-placed teams.

How can Namibia qualify?

• Namibia need a win (6 points) to sail through
• A draw (4 points) will mean that Tunisia must beat South Africa (4 points) to allow Namibia to qualify with head-to-head advantage
• A defeat will make it difficult as they would have to hope for South Africa to suffer a big defeat as well so they can aim for a third-place finish.

How can Tunisia qualify?

• A victory against South Africa will be enough to qualify if Namibia fail to beat Mali.
• Even if Namibia beat Mali, Tunisia can still finish third and qualify.
• A draw or a loss will be an unfortunate result for the Carthage Eagles.

Group F

Current standings of Group F after two games. Photo credit: CAFOnline

Final Group F fixtures

• Tanzania vs DR Congo
• Zambia vs Morocco

How can Morocco qualify?

• The Atlas Lions will proceed to the next stage if they win (7 points) or draw (5 points) against Zambia.
• Even if they lose they could qualify if DR Congo fail to record a win against Tanzania
• If they lose, they can still qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

How can DR Congo qualify?

• With a win (5 points), they can qualify for the next stage
• If they draw (3 points), they would hope for a Zambia draw or defeat to be sure of qualifying.
• A draw could also see them compete for third-placed best teams.
• They can also qualify with a lose provided Zambia also lose to Morocco [Goal difference will then determine]. If such results occur, they could also battle for a third-best-placed team.

How can Zambia qualify?

• A win (5 points) will be enough to take them through.
• In the event of a draw (3 points), their advancement depends on DR Congo not winning their match.
• In case of a draw, they can also compete for a spot among the third-placed best teams.
• Even in the scenario of a loss, qualification remains possible if DR Congo also lose to Morocco. In this case, goal difference would determine their fate, and they could still contend for a spot among the third-best-placed teams.

How can Tanzania qualify?

• If they win (4 points), and Morocco beat (7 points) or draw (5 points) with Zambia, Tanzania will qualify
• If they draw against DR Congo (2 points) and Zambia suffer defeat to Morocco, Tanzania could still sail through
• Meanwhile, such results could also keep them in competition for the third-best-placed side.
• A defeat will confirm their elimination.

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