No Need For Nana Addo To Focus On The Volta Region

Evidence Based Decision-Making is the “in-vogue” executive buzz phrase within a number of western governments. Simply put, it means that decisions made by government officials should be supported by evidence generated through a rigorous study or analysis of existing information. Recent pronouncements by the NPP flagbearer, Nana Addo, give the impression that he could benefit from a little bit of “Evidence Based Strategy Development” for the upcoming election.

On 15th July, it was reported that at a meeting with the NPP parliamentary candidates and party executives from the Volta Region, Nana Addo said, “building the confidence of the electorate of the Volta Region in the New Patriotic Party and in himself is vital, if the party is to wrest political power from the ruling National Democratic Congress in December 2016”. He is also reported to have told party supporters recently in Manchester, UK that, “I was stunned by the difference in the reception I got this time … when people on the streets of Ho recognised who we were, they shouted ‘Nana oh Nana’.

If that is what is going on there then it is a good sign for the future”. The first statement can be excused as a motivational statement from a veteran politician to a group that needs all the encouragement it can get; it takes a lot of courage and optimism to be a parliamentary candidate for the NPP in the Volta Region. On the other hand, his statement in Manchester points to a troubling mindset. A mindset occasioned by an incessant desire on the part of the NPP to purge itself of perceived animus toward the people of the Volta Region.

To say that the NPP presidential candidates have performed badly in the Volta Region in elections would be an understatement. It has been abysmal! The party won 7%, 14%, 15%, and 13% of the total votes cast in the Volta Region in the 2000 (first round), 2004, 2008 (first round), and 2012 elections, respectively (these results are from a number of unofficial news sources and may be slightly different from the official results). The 1992 and 1996 elections are not included because the political environment in Ghana was more oppressive. As the July 15 report also indicated, Nana Addo thinks the main reason for this poor showing of the NPP is because of “the false perception that it (NPP) has a tribal agenda against the people of the region”.

While he is absolutely right that this perception is false and has contributed to the NPP’s poor performance in the region, he is dead wrong to think that the party’s fortunes are going to change any time soon by making “it clear to the Chiefs and people of the Volta Region that all the stories about ‘tribal this and that’ are not true” and “that we do not have any negative agenda towards the Volta Region”.

The fact of the matter is the overwhelming majority of the people of the Volta Region are not interested in what Nana Addo or the NPP has to say on this issue; they just do not see the NPP as an ally. If a prominent and well educated person like Togbe Afede XIV, after receiving significant support for his private ventures from the Kuffour administration, can turn around and in all sincerity say he felt like an alien in the country during the NPP tenure, do you think the NPP has a chance with the average Voltarian simply because it has a good campaign slogan or message?

No party can win an election by focusing on convincing groups that have deep seated negative perceptions of the party. To win an election, a party must focus on shoring up its base and mounting an all-out campaign to win over persuadable voters. The key word in the second part of the sentence is “persuadable”. It is therefore time for the NPP to abandon this unremitting quest to get the people of the Volta Region to “like it”; it is not going to happen. With this in mind, let us exam the voting patterns of the other regions in the last four elections to identify where the party will be better off devoting its resources.

In the Upper West Region, NPP's share of the votes cast has ranged from 16% to 38% with the average over the last four elections being 29%. The corresponding numbers for the Upper East Region are 19%, 35% and 29% and for the Northern Region, 30%, 39% and 35%. So while the NPP has never won the majority of the votes in any of these regions, it has performed far better than in the Volta Region.

The NPP has won the last four elections in the Eastern and Ashanti regions with its share of the votes ranging between 55% and 60%, and 71% and 77%, respectively. The parties have alternated winning the remaining regions with the NPP winning one of the last four elections in the Central Region, two each in the Greater Accra and Western regions and three in Brong Ahafo. Amongst these regions, the NPP's worst performance was recorded in the Western Region in 2012 when it received 44% of the votes and its best performance was 59% in its only victory in the Central Region in 2004.

A number of conclusions and recommendations can be made based on the foregoing rudimentary analysis. First, as every Ghanaian knows, the Ashanti and Eastern regions are the NPP’s strongholds. Nana Addo will definitely win these two regions and therefore should only campaign there sparingly. The work of maintaining the NPP’s profile in the two regions should fall to surrogates such as the party’s parliamentary candidates and party executives. Despite its stronghold status, the Ashanti Region has never delivered more than 77% of the vote to the NPP. The NDC on the other hand always garners more than 85% of the votes in the Volta Region. The NDC therefore has a better chance of winning more votes in the Ashanti Region than the NPP has in the Volta Region. Given the relative sizes of the two regions, it makes more sense to use whatever resources the NPP has in trying to increase its votes in the Ashanti Region rather than in chasing after phantom votes in the Volta Region.

The northern regions: Upper East, Upper West and Northern, although predisposed to vote for NDC has a sizeable portion of the populace that will vote for the NPP. The party should identify those constituencies where these voters exist and spend whatever resources are dedicated to these regions in those constituencies. The strategy should be in limiting the damage in these three regions with particular emphasis on the Northern Region given its population size. This is where it will be prudent for the flagbearer to take a back seat to his running mate. That is, Bawumia being a son of the north, should be the one spearheading the campaign in these regions.

Brong Ahafo, Central, Western and Greater Accra are the battleground regions. There is absolutely no way the NPP will win the presidency without winning at least two of these regions. In 2000, Kuffour won three of these regions and still needed a round-off. Nana Addo should plan to spend most of his time campaigning in these four regions and the NPP should in turn dedicate most of the party’s resource to these regions.

Speaking of campaigns leads to the reported decision by Nana Addo to start his this August. On behalf of the poor Ghanaian, may I ask all the politicians out there for a break from politics for a few months? The persistent campaigning in Ghana is not good for a country that has so many social and economic problems that need addressing. What really is the point of starting a campaign now for an election that is more than a year away? Previously, the rationale had been that there was the need to market the candidate to counter the inherent advantage of the incumbent. However, in light of the proliferation of radio and TV stations and telecommunication tools, this reasoning no longer holds water. This is even more so in the case of Nana Addo. He has been around the block twice and has been in politics longer than most voters have been alive. He needs no introduction; not even in the Volta Region. Moreover, anything that Nana Addo does this year would most likely be pushed onto the backburner once Christmas rolls along and would have been forgotten come the new year.

Nana Addo will be better served by waiting till February next year to launch his campaign. In the interim, he can work on developing a strategy to counter the unfair negative stories about him that have been put out by the NDC and some individuals, to develop policy initiatives that will be the bedrock of the campaign and to draw up an overall voter outreach program for those persuadable voters. Nana Addo should also use this time to resolve the lingering mistrust amongst the executives of his party.

Recent shenanigans in connection with a court case, the alleged financial support to the Yvonne Nelson’s dumsor demonstration, the boycott of an executive meeting called by the Chairman of the party and the meeting with some members of the clergy, risk alienating the party’s most ardent supports. Someone has to crack the whip and it has to be Nana Addo. This situation cannot continue into the election and if it means kicking some people out of the party, including Nana Addo’s perceived supporters, so be it.

Ghanaians are yearning for better governance and are willing to try someone other than John Mahama. The upcoming election offers Nana Addo a great opportunity to become the president of the nation. However, to take advantage of this opportunity, he needs to develop a strategy rooted in the evidence provided by the results of past elections. A campaign based on a focus on the Volta Region for the sake of addressing a perceived bias or shortcoming is bound to end in another disappointment for Nana Addo and the NPP.

Dr. Yaw Asiedu, Ottawa, Canada

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