Economic cooperation: The Future of Sudan’s economy if the South secedes in the 2011 referendum

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) provides for the right to self determination for the people of south Sudan in an internationally monitored referendum in 2011. The question that remains unanswered is what the future of the Sudan's economy will be since most of the valuable resources are found in the South. Much of the oil which largely constitutes the greatest percentage of Sudan's export is drilled in the South.

Firstly, economic cooperation can bring strong economic performance for both North and South in very many aspects. There would be greater perception of the peace dividends by all people in the Sudan. The destruction of assets of economic value during the war would be forgotten and the strategy for developing a fast growing economy would prevail.

In addition, there will be enhancement of overall poverty reduction in both north and South. The general standard of living in the Sudan is poor. The Sudan is ranked among the countries with the poorest living conditions in Africa. This problem, though it can be argued by many as the influence of the north on the South, has its own equation through which its solution can be obtained.

The nature of the Sudanese people adds to the hope of acquiring cooperation between the two sovereign Sudanese states in case of secession of the south. We are forgiving and merciful people. Most problems are resolved and normal terms are maintained. There will still need to be interrelations between the two nations. The north-south border is the longest Sudanese border and maintenance of good relations along it essential. Unless good relations are made to exist, there will be continuous unrest. It will be the kind of Palestine-Israel border that is characterized by continuous clashes between the respective armies in defense of the territorial integrity.

The oil fields at the north-south border are of great significance in the economy of the Sudan. Unless there is an economic policy to regulate the drilling of this oil, there will be conflict over the ownership of the wells. The truth cannot easily be accepted and this explains why the international community is preferred in the arbitration of many Sudanese problems. In other words, the Sudan is a burden to the international community for it fails to address it own problems. For instance, the recent two decades of civil strife that started in 1983 ended by CPA signing, the Anyanya 1 war that broke out in 1955 and ended in the signing of the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement. Not preparing for the possible would be a time bomb.

The Nile connection of the Sudan and Egypt is another matter of concern. According to the 1959 water Agreement between Sudan and Egypt over the distribution of the Nile waters, Sudan was to use 18 cubic meters of the Nile water. This volume of water is not indicated in the agreement whether it is to be used in the north or south. It will decide ion what volume to use whereas the north will keep using the volume stated in the agreement. In case the south secedes, as a young member country of the Nile basin will have no hesitation in the use of the water despite the threats by Egypt; it will establish its hydro-electric power dams, and irrigation schemes, as well as industries that will emerge. Thus, all the countries will be forced to sign another agreement on the Nile water.

The landlocked of southern Sudan still remains another link between the north and the south even if secession is the way to go. Port Sudan provides the shortest access to water transport. Mombasa of Kenya and Dar Es Salaam of Tanzania are farther than Port Sudan. Therefore, receiving overseas consignments through East Africa will definitely be an offer to lose money. Besides, the north, south and Kuwaiti governments have to reach an agreement on the ownership of the Juba Port on the Nile River. Over fifty years back, the Sudanese government sold it to a Kuwaiti business company, and as a property of the south, it will definitely be taken by the resultant government whatever it may be called. All agreements that were signed by the Sudanese government on behalf f the South will be no more respected and new beginning will determine the fate of such agreements.

The transfer of southern industries transferred to the north requires economic cooperation. For instance, Mongala Sugar factory which is supposed to be in Mongala town about a hundred kilometers north of Juba is in the north. To revive these robbed assets, the south has more to do in persuading the north. Another possibility is the start from zero level in economic development if the north is dissuadable.

In conclusion, the north-south relationship will be determined by the economic benefits they will render to each other. Mutualism, not commensalisms will produce the best outcome

By Akol Ayom Wekdit
E-mail: akolayomwek@yahoo.com

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