What is at stake in Niger`s power referendum?

Niger will vote next Tuesday in a referendum to alter the uranium-exporting northwest African country's constitution to give President Mamadou Tandja a further three years in power.

Tandja, 71, is pressing ahead with the vote - which will give him three more years in power after his second elected term expires, then remove presidential term limits altogether -- despite domestic opposition and international criticism.

As billions of dollars of investment flow into Niger from China, France, South Korea and elsewhere, Tandja could, if successful, rule over a transformation period for the desert state, which is soon due to become an oil producer. Below are answers to some questions about a possible extension of Tandja's power, and what its implications might be.

WHY IS TANDJA HOLDING THE REFERENDUM? Former army officer Tandja has been in power since 1999, winning a second

term in 2004. The most recent years of his rule have coincided with a huge influx of money into the country, much of it from China, as foreign state-owned resources companies plan to exploit the uranium and oil which lie beneath the country's sandy surface. Tandja says the people of Niger have asked him to stay on to oversee these and other infrastructure projects such a hydro-electric dam, but constitutionally he is obliged to step down when his second elected term expires in December. If he wins the referendum, as he is widely expected to, that term will be extended by three years, and the constitution changed to remove presidential term limits.

WHO OPPOSES TANDJA'S PLAN?
Domestic opposition has been vocal, though it has not succeeded in derailing the plan, and Tandja maintains he is obeying the will of the people by seeking to stay on in power.

Anti-referendum coalition the Front for the Defence of Democracy has described Tandja's moves as a "coup d'etat by the president" and some former allies have walked out of Tandja's government in protest.

Workers began a 48-hour strike on Thursday, a private radio station was taken off air after broadcasting an opposition statement, and security forces have fired tear gas at two anti-referendum demonstrations, mostly recently a crowd of around 100 women earlier this month. Also in July the country's lawyers staged a 24-hour strike in solidarity with the constitutional court, which Tandja dissolved after it said the referendum would be unlawful.

As tensions rise, the position of Niger's armed forces will be crucial.

Tandja appears confident that he has the support of powerful senior officers, and the army publicly declared its neutrality after the opposition called on soldiers to disobey orders.

The military has a history of intervening in politics, and should a challenger believe he has sufficient backing to attempt to overthrow Tandja, he would be able to claim to be acting in defence of democracy and constitutional rule.

WHAT CAN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DO? Slow to react to Tandja's annoucement in

early May that he intended to hold a referendum, world powers and international organisations have since lined up to criticise the plan. West African regional body ECOWAS, the United Nations, European Union, United States and France have warned that the referendum is damaging for democracy and may lead to instability, though they appear to have little leverage. The European Union has delayed payment of a tranche of aid, but financial pressure from Europe is unlikely to be sufficient to force Tandja to change his mind, given that Niger's $5 billion deal with China National Petroleum Corporation alone dwarfs the 458 million euros ($645.5 million) set aside by the EU for Niger between 2008-2013.

While former colonial power France has publicly said it is concerned about backward steps for democracy in Niger, it is highly unlikely to do anything that would disrupt or threaten the 1.2 billion euro investment French state-owned energy firm Areva is making in Niger, where it is building what would be Africa's biggest uranium mine.

Paris relies on Niger for a sizeable proportion of the nuclear fuel that powers France's electricity network, and President Nicolas Sarkozy visited the capital Niamey in March to mark Areva's deepening involvement with Niger.

Tandja has acknowledged international criticism but vowed defiance, saying he serves the people of Niger, not international opinion. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR INVESTORS?

Potential investors may be worried by a perception of heightened instability, but those with existing investment plans are not likely to be discouraged, particularly given the large scale and strategic nature of nuclear power and oil deals.

Resources companies working on long timescales and on projects which require huge amounts of capital investment value stability and security of title extremely highly, and the continuity of leadership may be more welcome than the uncertainty engendered by changes of government.

Tandja's previously hardline stance towards the Tuareg rebels who roam and mount raids in the uranium-mining north of the country appears to be softening, and the prospect of the government reaching a peaceful settlement with the rebels will appeal to those with projects in the north.

Credit: Reuters

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