South Sudan Is Courting Oil Investors. The Risks Sit Across the Border

South Sudan is inviting investors to Juba on 24 and 25 November for the seventh South Sudan Oil & Power (SSOP) conference. Held under the theme "Resource Renaissance – Energy-Fueled Growth for a New Generation" and in official partnership with the Ministry of Petroleum, it will pitch opportunities across oil and gas, refining, midstream infrastructure and power . The offer is large. So are the questions around it.

What is on the table
According to the organisers, the Ministry of Petroleum currently lists 14 open exploration blocks: A1 to A6, B1, B4, C1, C2, D1, D2, E1 and E2. Five of them, A1, A4, B1, E2 and D1, have been offered in the country's first licensing round.

The Ministry reports national production of about 170,000 barrels per day (bpd), with government targets of 230,000 bpd in the short term and 450,000 bpd in the longer term. The Greater Pioneer Operating Company (GPOC), which runs Blocks 1, 2 and 4, reached 60,000 bpd earlier this year, its highest level since it began operating in 2005. The government now wants 75,000 bpd by the end of 2026. The organisers say South Sudan holds an estimated 3.5 billion barrels of proven reserves, nearly 90 per cent of them untapped.

Downstream, the Ministry lists a pipeline of refinery projects, including Jemeza, Akon, Bantiu, Thiangrial and Trinity. It has also outlined a plan with Superior Process Engineering Company for 60,000 bpd of new capacity, starting with a 30,000 bpd refinery at Tharjiath in Unity State, with the aim of cutting fuel imports. In July it signed a memorandum with Bianchi Gold Trading Investment Company covering exploration, infrastructure, refineries and storage .

The economy rides on one commodity and one route

The stakes are high because oil is nearly everything. The 2026/27 budget projects oil at about 79 per cent of revenue, according to the Rio Times, which also reports that about $33 million is set aside for elections scheduled for 22 December. I could not verify those figures against primary budget documents, so treat them as indicative.

The weakness is geography. South Sudan is landlocked and exports through pipelines crossing Sudan to the Red Sea. The war in Sudan closed the main pipeline for most of the period from February 2024 to 2025, causing a sharp economic contraction, according to the World Bank. Drone attacks hit the Heglig and Al Jailyin facilities in November 2025 and briefly halted exports again.

The risk is not only physical. Sudan Tribune reports that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which took control of Heglig, collect about $4 per barrel in transit fees on South Sudanese crude, with payments deducted from the share that used to go to Khartoum.

A tripartite agreement between the RSF, the Sudanese army and South Sudan's forces in December 2025 aimed to protect the oil infrastructure. For investors, that means dependence on an export route controlled by a force that is both a party to a war and a recipient of fees.

Reading the numbers carefully
Several caveats apply to the organisers' picture:

Production claims vary. Earlier in the year, South Sudan's Ministry cited output of 95,000 to 100,000 bpd flowing through the export pipeline, and Sudans Post put total output above 100,000 bpd. The Ministry's 170,000 bpd figure is higher, and one report describes a similar number as a production claim, not verified export throughput. Investors should seek independent audits.

Revenue does not all reach the state. Government officials have said portions of oil revenue go to operating costs, transit and processing fees paid to Sudan, and community entitlements, including 2 per cent for oil-producing states and 1 per cent for future generations.

The source is promotional. The press release was distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power, which organises the conference. That does not make the facts wrong, but the "opportunity" framing is the organisers'.

What a "renaissance" would need
South Sudan's leaders speak of a new generation benefiting from oil. That aim will test whether the sector can deliver more than barrels. Four conditions matter most:

Transparency. Published licensing terms, production data and revenue flows would give investors confidence and citizens a view of what they own.

Security of export routes. Without a durable arrangement with Sudan's warring parties, or an alternative route, every new barrel remains at risk.

Local benefit. Refining and power projects should translate into fuel, electricity and jobs for ordinary South Sudanese, not just revenue for contractors.

Stability at home. Elections are scheduled for December, and investors will weigh the political climate as heavily as the geology .

For other African producers, including Ghana, the lesson is familiar. Resource wealth attracts attention quickly, but it only becomes lasting prosperity when institutions, infrastructure and transparent management are in place first.

Mustapha Bature Sallama
Medical/ Science Communicator,
Private Investigator, Criminal Investigation and Intelligence Analysis,

International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding. (USIP)

Mustysallama@gmail.com
+233555275880

References
APO Group for Energy Capital & Power, "South Sudan Oil & Power (SSOP) 2026 to Showcase Investment Opportunities Across South Sudan's Energy Sector," Juba, 7 October 2026 (press release supplied).

Sudans Post, "South Sudan oil production hits highest GPOC level since 2005": https://www.sudanspost.com/south-sudan-oil-production-hits-highest-gpoc-level-since-2005/

Rio Times, "South Sudan Budget Puts Oil at 79% of All Revenue": https://www.riotimesonline.com/south-sudan-budget-2026-27-oil-elections/

World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook, South Sudan: https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bae48ff2fefc5a869546775b3f010735-0500062021/related/mpo-ssd.pdf

Sudan Tribune, "South Sudan resumes oil exports after drone attacks halt pipeline flow": https://sudantribune.com/article/307336

Sudan Tribune, "RSF extracts transit fees as Heglig oil output reaches 26,000 bpd," 27 September 2026: https://sudantribune.com/article/319333

Wikipedia, "South Sudan–Sudan relations" (background on the December 2025 tripartite agreement): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan%E2%80%93Sudan_relations

Radio Tamazuj, "South Sudan to increase oil output amid rising prices," 25 March 2026: https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/south-sudan-to-increase-oil-output-amid-rising-prices

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