Niger coup attempt: 'Russians saved the day' analyst tells RFI
Soldiers from the Russian Defence Ministry's Africa Corps were called in after mutinous soldiers seized the airport's Base 101 and attacked the presidential palace and national television on Saturday.
The rebels were eventually driven from the base, with Russian forces reportedly using kamikaze drones to force some of them to surrender.
The Nigerien Ministry of Defence attributed the violence to a "spontaneous outburst" involving soldiers who had breached military regulations.
Niger has been led by General Abdourahamane Tiani since a coup in July 2023. He has moved the country closer to Russia and away from Western partners, notably former colonial power France.
But Yvan Guichaoua, a senior researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies, told RFI the attacks on three strategic sites point to an attempted coup rather than a mutiny that simply escalated.
RFI: Do you lean towards the "spontaneous outburst" explanation or an attempted coup?
Yvan Guichaoua: Curiously, the "spontaneous outburst" version is the one being repeated by Niger's official media. But paradoxically, they also stress that these people were supposedly inspired by [alleged] French attempts to destabilise the country. So there's clearly some hesitation within the authorities themselves over how to describe what happened.
Given the way events unfolded and the fact that the presidential palace, national television and the airport were targeted, I would personally lean towards an attempted coup rather than a mutiny that escalated. Why? Because targeting these three strategic locations has been the classic pattern of coups for decades.
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RFI: Special forces have been mentioned as being behind the attempted coup. What kind of unit do you think they might be?
YG:The key point, and the heart of what happened, was Base 101 at the airport, which houses special forces along with other troops. There was talk of a unit called Agali, based in Dosso. That was one of the first specific names or details identifying those behind the coup attempt that emerged on Saturday morning.
As the day went on, events centred increasingly on Base 101 and the special forces there. So, in broad terms, I think several units of young soldiers coordinated the attacks. But it's still unclear exactly who attacked or who, for example, tried to storm the presidential palace. We don't have a precise account of what happened or who was responsible at the different locations where clashes took place.
RFI: Could these be special forces who are on the front line against jihadist groups and who wanted to express genuine frustration, for example?
YG: That's one of the theories we've been hearing since Sunday evening. It refers to soldiers who feel they're being treated unfairly or exposed to too much danger compared to other parts of the army – which they see as more privileged or better protected.
That's one theory doing the rounds. Living conditions in the barracks have also been deteriorating for quite some time. We regularly hear about discontent or even protests within the barracks, often reported by pro-Bazoum propaganda channels.
[Editor's note: Former Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum was ousted in the 2023 coup d'etat by members of the presidential guard and armed forces led by Tiani.]
Each time, the question is whether this will eventually turn into an attempted coup or a more ambitious protest movement. This is the first time we've seen that discontent materialise.
But there may also be more political factors involved. One question is whether senior officers were involved. For now, we have no information allowing us to establish in detail the chain of command of those who took part in this initiative.
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RFI: So why did the insurgents fail to seize the presidential palace and national television as they intended?
YG: Clearly, the military balance of power was against them. The presidential palace is well defended. The presidential guard, the unit most loyal to General Tiani, is well equipped. So taking it on was apparently too big a challenge for the putschists. They came up against resistance from the presidential guard.
The situation at the television station was more ambiguous. It wasn't clear that the presidential guard was defending it. There was more talk of the Republican Guard, and there was uncertainty throughout the day about which side it would take, amid rumours that some army units might switch sides.
In these circumstances, there are inevitably a lot of people waiting to see what happens. There's a group challenging the regime, the regime's loyalists fight back, and then there are those who stand back and wait.
That is what happened to some extent in 2023, when Bazoum fell. The outcome wasn't decided within a few minutes. It took two or three days, with army units joining the putschists, probably out of pragmatism and opportunism, thinking: "Well, let's back the horse most likely to win."
I think that's what happened throughout Saturday. As for the television station, for example, we never really knew whether it was in the hands of the putschists. Probably not, because if they really had taken control of the studios, we would have seen the classic statements announcing the suspension of the Constitution and calling for the president to be removed – the things we normally see in such situations.
None of that happened. The fact that the putschists were never able to communicate publicly also leaves their motivations unclear and means that my role as an observer, like that of my colleagues, remains somewhat speculative.
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RFI: On Saturday evening, General Tiani's loyalists managed to retake Base 101 at Niamey's international airport. Could Russian Africa Corps assistance have been decisive?
YG: It seems that it was. There were also official statements from the Russian ambassador to Niger saying that he had been asked for help, that assistance from Africa Corps had been requested and that it had been provided.
We don't know from official sources close to the regime what form that assistance took. We know from observers and security sources, who are not necessarily named and who want to preserve their anonymity.
But it appears that kamikaze drones were used quite intensively. They may have persuaded the rebel officers and soldiers to surrender because they were causing too much damage among their ranks.
So I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that the Russians saved the day, or at least helped contain the rebellion and the attempted coup. General Tiani (right) held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) in Niamey in July 2026.
RFI: This is the first time since General Tiani came to power three years ago that he's faced an uprising within his own army. Is this a sign of weakness?
YG: In the short term, he's won a victory. There's no denying that. He managed to preserve his regime and stop and neutralise the rebel soldiers.
In the longer term, even over the medium term, this will clearly make things more difficult for him for several reasons.
First, the Russians' involvement and their decisive role in retaking the base make the regime dependent on Russia. Tiani now owes the Russians something.
Then there's the fact that the presidential guard, meaning the soldiers loyal to Tiani, carried out the operation and acted fairly independently, working alongside the Russians. We don't really know what the rest of the army's senior command thought.
There's still no clear picture of the decision to launch the assault on the base. Throughout Saturday, there were rumours that not all senior officers agreed with the idea of eliminating these young soldiers who had expressed their discontent.
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One likely consequence is that there will have to be some repair work within the ranks to restore a degree of cohesion.
On the one hand, it sends a signal to anyone who might try to challenge the regime and will probably act as a deterrent. On the other, it creates a clearer divide between the presidential guard and the Russians on one side and the rest of the army on the other.
General Tiani is already very concerned about foreign interference and the risk of destabilisation. One can imagine that this concern will become even stronger and that there will be more of what is known as "coup-proofing" – measures designed to protect the regime.
But resources are limited. Anything devoted to protecting the regime won't go towards protecting the territory or fighting the jihadist groups and rebels that are multiplying in the east of the country.
That leaves Niger facing many challenges in the weeks and months ahead.
This interview was adapted from the original in French by Christophe Boisbouvier.