Beyond BRICS: Has De-Dollarisation Already Begun?

Many geopolitical analysts have long forecast the gradual decline of the dollar’s global dominance. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that the challenge to the dollar is no longer confined to academic forecasts or anti-Western rhetoric. Even Europe, despite its deep economic and strategic relationship with the United States, has periodically sought a more distinct strategic and financial identity. For European policymakers, reducing excessive dependence on the dollar was once a strategic preference; today, for many, it is becoming an economic necessity.

America’s relative decline is not necessarily linked to a single war or military defeat. It is increasingly connected to gaps in decision-making, institutional inconsistency and the enormous burden of sustaining a global order that Washington can no longer manage as easily as it once did. The international system has changed beyond the comfort zone of American administrations. The real question is whether Washington recognises that the world is changing—or whether it continues to respond to every challenge with tariffs, sanctions and threats.

How Is India’s Active Diplomacy Setting the Stage?

India’s diplomacy has become particularly significant in this changing environment. External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar and his diplomatic team have worked aggressively to protect India’s strategic interests while maintaining relationships across competing geopolitical blocs. New Delhi’s engagement with Moscow remains crucial, particularly as Russia seeks new markets and India requires reliable energy and trade routes.

Speculation is growing about whether future BRICS discussions could accelerate plans for alternative trade mechanisms or regional currencies. Whether a formal common currency emerges soon remains uncertain, but the political momentum behind reducing dependence on the dollar is unmistakable. Washington’s traditional response—new sanctions, tariff threats or diplomatic pressure—may no longer be sufficient to prevent countries from seeking alternatives.

Russia could become an important pathway in emerging trade routes, particularly for India. New Delhi’s growing energy requirements and Moscow’s search for stable markets have created a powerful economic relationship. If sanctions on Russian and Iranian energy continue to reshape global markets, India may find itself increasingly central to alternative trading arrangements.

At the same time, a reduction in tensions between India and China could potentially create space for wider regional cooperation. If Beijing and New Delhi manage to contain their disputes, the combination of Chinese industrial capacity, Russian energy resources and Indian market demand could become one of the most significant economic alignments in the world. The greatest obstacle, however, remains the deep trust deficit between these powers.

How Will the GCC Respond?
The Gulf states have learned a costly lesson from regional instability: insecurity destroys markets, investment and long-term economic planning. They have often paid the economic price for wars initiated or influenced by powers far beyond the region.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s increasingly proactive global engagement reflects this changing reality. Riyadh is seeking stronger relationships not only within its neighbourhood but also with Europe, Asia and emerging economic blocs. Gulf diplomacy appears increasingly focused on diversification rather than permanent dependence on Washington.

The wider regional search for security arrangements—from dialogue with Iran to evolving relationships among Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and other regional actors—suggests that traditional alliances are being reconsidered. Saudi Arabia appears interested in building a broader security architecture in which Pakistan’s military capabilities, Türkiye’s NATO experience and Gulf financial strength could complement one another.

This raises a fundamental question: if a new regional security framework is possible, why cannot an economic framework develop alongside it?

Security and Economics Cannot Be Separated

Moscow and Beijing increasingly appear interested in facilitating alternative regional and global arrangements. Back-channel discussions, including speculation surrounding long-standing disputes such as Kashmir, demonstrate how economics, security and diplomacy are becoming increasingly interconnected.

Pakistan, meanwhile, faces a difficult strategic balancing act. Islamabad cannot afford to become dependent on one geopolitical camp while remaining isolated from emerging economic networks. Winning temporary political confidence in Washington is not the same as securing Pakistan’s long-term economic interests. Military cooperation and access to air bases cannot replace access to markets, technology, energy and sustainable investment.

South Asia needs a framework in which security and economic development reinforce each other. The emerging world order will not be shaped simply by who possesses the most military power. It will be shaped by who controls markets, energy routes, currencies, technology and trust.

De-dollarisation may not yet represent the end of the dollar. But the process of challenging its unquestioned dominance has clearly begun. Beyond BRICS, the real transformation may already be underway—and Washington’s greatest failure could be assuming that the old world order still exists.

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