Bawumia Leads Every NDC Contender in New APL Survey Tried-and-Tested Trend or a Shifting Ghanaian Mood?

A new nationwide survey by Africa Policy Lens (APL) has placed NPP flagbearer Dr Mahamudu Bawumia ahead of all seven potential National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential contenders tested, in results that will sharpen an already fierce argument in Ghana over what the country's competing pollsters are actually measuring and whether any of them can be trusted to call the direction of 2028.

What the APL survey found
Conducted between July 27 and August 7, 2026, the survey sampled 16,963 voters across all 276 constituencies and tested Dr Bawumia in seven hypothetical head-to-head contests. His support ranged from 45.7 percent to 49.9 percent depending on the opponent. He led NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia 45.8 percent to 42.4 percent, and Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson 45.7 percent to 42.8 percent. Against Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu, the margin widened slightly to 45.9–41.5.

His biggest leads came against Prof Joshua Alabi (49.9 to 34.4) and Eric Opoku (49.8 to 33.9), while his contest against Chief of Staff Julius Debrah produced his most comfortable double-digit margin at 48.4 to 37.9, and against Prof Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang he led 47.4 to 40.2. Undecided voters ranged between 7.2 and 9.3 percent across the matchups.

APL says Dr Bawumia's appeal is not confined to a single region, claiming he wins between nine and eleven of Ghana's sixteen regions across the different contests though the organization has not published the underlying regional breakdown alongside the national topline figures, which limits independent verification of that specific claim.

A polling landscape pulling in opposite directions

The APL numbers land in the middle of a genuinely contested polling environment, and readers deserve the fuller picture rather than a single data point presented as settled fact. Through much of 2025 and into 2026, Global InfoAnalytics Ghana's other prominent political pollster published a string of surveys showing the opposite trend: NDC figures including Asiedu Nketia, Julius Debrah, Prof Opoku-Agyemang, Haruna Iddrisu and Dr Ato Forson each defeating Dr Bawumia in hypothetical matchups, in some cases by double digits. A July 2026 Global InfoAnalytics poll had Dr Ato Forson beating Dr Bawumia 57.5 to 35.3 percent nationally, and even the closest of those matchups, against Julius Debrah, still had Dr Bawumia trailing 46 to 50.

Global InfoAnalytics itself has faced its own scrutiny. An October 2025 report questioned the pollster's claim of surveying nearly 17,000 respondents within a three-month span, prompting calls for the Ghana Statistical Service to establish clearer oversight standards for political polling in the country. APL, for its part, is not without its own pattern worth noting: its surveys through the NPP primary season consistently tracked Dr Bawumia's rising dominance within his own party, culminating in his 61 percent post-engagement support figure before he went on to win the NPP flagbearer race outright in January 2026 with 56.5 percent of delegate votes a result the polling had anticipated reasonably well. Whether that internal-party track record extends cleanly to a general election prediction spanning both parties is a separate methodological question.

Tried and tested, or a real shift?
The honest answer, based on what is publicly available, is that neither claim "tried and tested continuity" nor "Ghanaians are charting another direction" can be declared proven from a single survey cycle. What is observable is a genuine divergence between Ghana's two leading private pollsters on the same underlying question, at the same broad moment in the electoral cycle, with no independent, methodologically transparent adjudicator standing between them. Both organizations publish sample sizes and dates; neither has, to date, published full methodology disclosures questionnaire wording, weighting procedures, or field-level data sufficient for outside statisticians to fully reconcile the gap.

For Ghanaian readers trying to make sense of dueling headlines between now and December 2028, three things are worth holding onto: first, that the NDC has not yet opened its own presidential primary and none of the seven names tested has a mandate as the party's actual candidate; second, that head-to-head polling this far from an election has a documented record of volatility in Ghana's own history, including the sharp late shifts seen in the 2024 cycle; and third, that a survey commissioned or closely associated with a fast-moving political conversation should be read alongside its methodology, its funding, and its historical accuracy not treated as a verdict.

This report draws on reporting from The Ghanaian Chronicle, Ghanamma.com, MyJoyOnline, Adomonline, News Ghana, GBC Ghana Online, and Bloomberg.

Mustapha Bature Sallama.
Medical/ Science Communicator,
Private Investigator, Criminal investigation and Intelligence Analysis.

International Conflict Management and Peace Building.USIP

mustysallama@gmail.com
+233-555-275-880
References
The Ghanaian Chronicle. "Bawumia Leads All NDC Hopefuls In 2028 Race APL Poll." August 19, 2026. https://thechronicle.com.gh/bawumia-leads-all-ndc-hopefuls-in-2028-race-apl-poll/

Ghanamma.com. "APL poll puts Bawumia ahead of seven potential NDC contenders." August 19, 2026. https://www.ghanamma.com/2026/08/19/apl-poll-puts-bawumia-ahead-of-seven-potential-ndc-contenders/

The Ghanaian Chronicle. "APL Poll Reveals: Bawumia Will Win One Touch." January 29, 2026. https://thechronicle.com.gh/apl-poll-reveals-bawumia-will-win-one-touch/

The Herald Ghana. "Bawumia blows rivals away in APL poll as NPP flagbearer race tilts sharply." January 27, 2026. https://theheraldghana.com/bawumia-blows-rivals-alaway-in-apl-poll-as-npp-flagbearer-race-tilts-sharply/

MyJoyOnline. "NDC 2028 flagbearer race evenly split, no runaway leader APL survey." April 21, 2026. https://www.myjoyonline.com/ndc-2028-flagbearer-race-evenly-split-no-runaway-leader-apl-survey/

MyJoyOnline. "LGBTQ+ bill likely to influence 2028 vote, majority of Ghanaians indicate APL survey." April 13, 2026. https://www.myjoyonline.com/lgbtq-bill-likely-to-influence-2028-vote-majority-of-ghanaians-indicate-apl-survey/

Adomonline.com. "NPP beats NDC with 49% support in new APL national vote tracker." June 22, 2026. https://www.adomonline.com/npp-beats-ndc-with-49-support-in-new-apl-national-vote-tracker/

Adomonline.com. "Bawumia dominates but NDC supporters back Ken Agyapong in NPP race Survey." June 23, 2025. https://www.adomonline.com/bawumia-dominates-but-ndc-supporters-back-ken-agyapong-in-npp-race-survey/

News Ghana. "Bawumia Trails All Four Leading NDC Candidates in 2028 Projections." January 4, 2026. https://www.newsghana.com.gh/bawumia-trails-all-four-leading-ndc-candidates-in-2028-projections/

Adomonline.com. "Global InfoAnalytics poll: Ato Forson to floor Bawumia by 22%." Early August 2026. https://www.adomonline.com/global-infoanalytics-poll-ato-forson-to-floor-bawumia-by-22/

Adomonline.com. "2028 election: Global InfoAnalytics poll projects Ato Forson ahead of Bawumia, Asiedu Nketia." May 5, 2026. https://www.adomonline.com/2028-election-global-infoanalytics-poll-projects-ato-forson-ahead-of-bawumia-asiedu-nketia/

Adomonline.com. "Global InfoAnalytics poll: Asiedu Nketia tops Bawumia by 12 to 17% in 2028 race." Late July 2026. https://www.adomonline.com/global-infoanalytics-poll-asiedu-nketia-tops-bawumia-by-12-to-17-in-2028-race/

Ghanamma.com. "Poll shows Asiedu Nketia slightly ahead of Bawumia in potential 2028 presidential race." September 29, 2025. https://www.ghanamma.com/2025/09/29/poll-shows-asiedu-nketia-slightly-ahead-of-bawumia-in-potential-2028-presidential-race/

Pulse Ghana. "5 Potential NDC Presidential Candidates Who Can Beat Dr Bawumia in 2028." February 4, 2026. https://www.pulse.com.gh/story/5-potential-ndc-presidential-candidates-who-can-beat-dr-bawumia-in-2028-2026020409290258799

News Ghana. "Bawumia Leads NPP's 2028 Presidential Race in Latest Poll" (Global InfoAnalytics, April 2025). https://newsghana.com.gh/bawumia-leads-npps-2028-presidential-race-in-latest-poll/

GBC Ghana Online. "Majority of NPP supporters favour Bawumia as 2028 Flagbearer Poll." April 3, 2025. https://www.gbcghanaonline.com/news/politics/bawumia-2028/2025/

Bloomberg. "Ghana's Former Vice President Gets Party's Nod for 2028 Polls." January 31, 2026. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-31/ghana-s-former-vice-president-gets-party-s-nod-for-2028-polls

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