When Polls Become Propaganda: The Danger of Using Survey to Shape, Not Test,Public Opinion

Polls are supposed to be a mirror. They are meant to reflect what the people are thinking, not to tell the people what to think. That is the foundation of their value in any democracy.

But in recent months, it appears that Mr. Mussa Dankwah of Global InfoAnalytics has crossed that line. Instead of testing public opinion, his polls increasingly look like an attempt to guide it. And that is dangerous for Ghana’s democracy.

The Context: NDC’s Succession Problem
To understand why this matters now, we must look at the National Democratic Congress (NDC). For the past 12 years, the National Democratic Congress has built its party, its messaging, and its electoral fortunes around one man: President John Dramani Mahama.

Since taking over from the late President John Evans Atta Mills, President Mahama has been the face of the NDC in every election. That strategy delivered results. It gave the party cohesion and a recognizable brand. It also delivered a landslide victory for President Mahama in the most recent contest.

But a party built around one personality for over a decade will inevitably face a succession challenge. Political parties cannot be permanent personality projects. At some point, the question of “who comes after” must be answered.

And here lies the NDC’s dilemma. Because all the structures, goodwill, and political capital have been concentrated around President Mahama, the next person to lead the party will struggle to command the same level of national recognition and popularity.

That is the political reality the NDC is walking into.

Enter the Polls: Shaping a Narrative
This is where the recent polls from Global InfoAnalytics become concerning.

In a series of releases, Mr. Mussa Dankwah has put out survey results claiming that some of the NDC’s potential presidential candidates are already ahead of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP in national polls. Names like Hon. Cassiel Ato Forson have been mentioned as leading the former Vice President.

Let us be honest about the politics here. Comparing pedigree, national profile, and public recognition, it is difficult to see how a candidate like Hon. Ato Forson would, at this stage, be ahead of Dr. Bawumia.

Dr. Bawumia served for 8 years as Vice President and was the NPP’s presidential candidate in the last election. He is known in every region, in every market, and in every church and mosque. He has debated national economic policy on national television and has a record that Ghanaians have already judged at the polls.

Hon. Ato Forson is a respected Member of Parliament and current Finance Minister. But his national profile, as of today, does not match that of Dr. Bawumia. For a poll to suggest otherwise raises serious questions.

Are these polls testing what Ghanaians actually think? Or are they trying to convince Ghanaians of what they should think?

Why This Is Dangerous for Democracy
There are three dangers when pollsters move from measuring to manufacturing opinion.

1. It distorts the internal democracy of political parties.

When a poll declares that Candidate A is already ahead of Candidate B nationally, it can freeze the contest inside the NDC. Party members may conclude that the race is over before it starts. Delegates may be pressured to align with the “inevitable” choice. That kills debate, kills competition of ideas, and weakens the party in the long run.

2. It misleads the Ghanaian voter.
Voters rely on polls to understand the political landscape. If polls are used to push a narrative rather than reflect reality, then citizens are making decisions based on fiction. That erodes trust, not just in one pollster, but in polling as an institution.

3. It creates a false sense of security or panic.

For the NDC, these polls may create complacency: “our candidate is already ahead, so we don’t need to work hard.” For the NPP, it may create unnecessary panic. Both outcomes are bad for a competitive election. Democracies thrive when parties are hungry and when voters are informed.

Polls Should Test, Not Tell
Good polling is transparent. It publishes methodology, sample size, margin of error, and the exact questions asked. It allows for scrutiny.

More importantly, good polling respects the voter. It says: “here is what we found.” It does not say: “here is who you should support.”

Ghana has a vibrant democracy because we debate issues openly. We argue about the economy, about governance, about policy. Polls should add to that debate by giving us data. They should not try to end the debate by declaring winners 3 years before an election.

The Way Forward
Mr. Mussa Dankwah and Global InfoAnalytics have a right to conduct polls. That is part of a free society. But with that right comes responsibility.

The responsibility is to be clear that a poll is a snapshot in time, not a prophecy. The responsibility is to avoid releasing results that look designed to influence party primaries or to anoint successors.

The NDC also has a responsibility. The party must have an open, competitive process to choose President Mahama’s successor. That process cannot be outsourced to a poll. It must happen in the constituencies, in the debates, and at the congress.

And Ghanaians have a responsibility too. We must read polls critically. We must ask: who commissioned this? What was the question? What was the sample?

Conclusion
Ghana’s democracy is bigger than any one pollster, any one party, and any one personality.

Polls are useful tools. But when they are used to guide public opinion instead of test it, they become propaganda. And propaganda, no matter how well packaged in charts and percentages, is dangerous.

The NDC will have to deal with its succession challenge honestly. The NPP will have to present its vision through leaders like Dr. Bawumia who have national recognition. And the Ghanaian people will decide in 2028 based on records, ideas, and trust.

Let polls go back to their proper job: holding up a mirror to the people. Let them not become a megaphone telling the people what to believe.

That is how we protect our democracy.
The author is a regular contributor to News Commentary, a current affairs programme by the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation and a columnist with Modern Ghana.

   Comments1