Europe faces rocket shortage by 2030 as satellite demand surges
Europe's expanding satellite ambitions are putting pressure on the continent to boost its launch capacity and reduce its reliance on foreign providers.
Josef Aschbacher, director-general of the European Space Agency (ESA), said the region was heading for a crunch as new satellite constellations and major space programmes come online.
The ESA currently forecasts that Europe will face a shortage of launchers around 2030, Aschbacher told the Financial Times in an interview published this week.
“If we add up all the satellites that need to be launched from current and planned constellations and missions... we see that there's a peak of launch requirements around 2029, 2030, 2031,” he said.
The warning comes as European governments step up investment in communications, navigation, Earth observation and defence satellites.
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Demand set to rise
One of the biggest projects is Iris2, the European Union's planned secure satellite internet constellation, which is expected to begin deployment in 2029.
The EU is also preparing to expand Galileo, its satellite navigation system, as well as the Copernicus Earth observation programme.
Several European countries, led by Germany, are also developing their own satellite constellations for civilian and military purposes.
But growing demand is running up against limited homegrown launch capacity.
Ariane 6, Europe's new heavy-lift rocket, is gradually increasing production after making its maiden flight in July 2024, while the smaller Vega C launcher returned to service at the end of that year.
The transition between launch systems had left Europe without independent access to space for almost a year following the final Ariane 5 mission in July 2023.
In 2025, Europe conducted seven launches – four using Ariane 6 and three with Vega C – according to ESA.
The figures remain a fraction of those achieved by SpaceX. The US company carried out 170 launches last year and placed around 2,500 satellites into orbit, according to the US Federal Aviation Administration.
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Push for European autonomy
Maintaining independent access to orbit has become increasingly important as satellites play a growing role in communications, navigation, climate monitoring, scientific research and defence.
The prospect of a launcher shortage has added urgency to Europe's efforts to strengthen its strategic autonomy in space, particularly as the US commercial sector expands rapidly and China continues to build up its own launch capacity and orbital infrastructure.
The ESA wants to “ensure that we can launch our satellites using European launchers”, Aschbacher said, adding that he planned to raise the issue with the agency's member states.
Europe's future launch capacity is likely to be among the issues discussed at the International Space Summit in Paris on 9 and 10 September.
The gathering, organised at the initiative of France and Germany, is due to bring together major space powers and private-sector companies to discuss how to guarantee access to space while adapting international rules to the rapid expansion of commercial and government activity in orbit.
(with newswires)