Think this summer is hot? El Nino could push temperatures even higher
Wildfires are burning across Europe and North America, successive heatwaves have baked major cities and the world's oceans are warmer than ever recorded at this point in the year.
Yet despite the exceptional conditions, 2026 is not currently the planet's hottest year on record. So far, it ranks third behind 2024 and 2025.
That could change before December.
Scientists say the combination of accelerating human-driven climate change and an unusually powerful El Nino could push 2026 past 2024 – or at least bring it very close. Even if it falls short, experts predict that 2027 will likely to set a new global temperature record, potentially by a significant margin.
“The world is now on fire again with climate change in a way that's increasingly difficult to ignore,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at US-based research group Berkeley Earth. “It's going to keep getting worse.”
Hausfather estimates there is now a 35 percent chance that 2026 will become the hottest year recorded, up from just 7 percent in March.
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Early warning from oceans
One of the strongest indicators is the extraordinary warmth of the world's oceans, which cover more than 70 percent of the planet.
Daily global sea surface temperatures matched 2024 levels in May and have remained at record highs on almost every day since June. Around 82 percent of the world's ocean surface has experienced marine heatwave conditions this year, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Changes in sea temperatures often take several weeks to appear in global atmospheric readings, says former senior Nasa climate scientist James Hansen, whose warnings about global warming stretch back four decades. He believes the trend indicates that this year will narrowly overtake 2024. There is an 80 percent chance of the warming El Nino phenomenon developing between June and August, increasing the risk of extreme weather events, the World Meteorological Organization said on 2 June 2026.
A powerful El Nino could make that even more likely. The natural phenomenon warms parts of the equatorial Pacific, raising average global temperatures and disrupting weather patterns around the world.
Forecasts suggest the developing El Nino could become the strongest ever measured.
El Nino releases heat that has built up in the oceans. But greenhouse gases have ensured there is now much more heat available to release, with the seas absorbing about 90 percent of the excess warmth trapped by emissions.
Scientists stress, however, that El Nino cannot explain the wildfires and extreme temperatures already seen this summer, as its strongest effects are not expected until later in the year.
“The driver of the record warmth is climate change in the background,” said Zachary Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central, a science and communications nonprofit. El Nino, he added, would contribute only around one or two tenths of a degree on top of the longer-term warming trend.
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Europe faces repeated heatwaves
Europe has been among the regions most visibly affected this year.
The continent experienced what Copernicus described as an exceptional heatwave in May, followed by another in June, two more in July, and further extreme temperatures across France and Spain in early August.
“What is very unusual for Europe for this particular year is the frequency and extent of the heatwaves,” said Samantha Burgess, Copernicus's global strategic lead.
In Europe, repeated periods of intense heat can be particularly dangerous because many homes and cities were not designed for prolonged high temperatures. This year's heatwaves have been especially noticeable at night, said Burgess, which disrupts sleep and increases health risks. A person shelters from the sun in the Tuileries Garden during a heatwave in Paris, France, on 11 July 2026.
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Extreme heat has also struck North and South America and India, while wildfires have burned across several regions.
For Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, this summer's fires and heatwaves represent what experts have been warning the world faces.
“These are vivid pictures of not just the future, which is what we used to say, but on the whole of what climate change is doing,” he said.