Tinubu's 2027 Bid and the Ghost of Jonathan: When a President's Own Backyard Starts to Wobble

There is a pattern in Nigerian presidential politics that keeps repeating itself, and President Bola Tinubu's march toward 2027 is beginning to echo it uncomfortably. Goodluck Jonathan did not lose the presidency in 2015 because Nigerians in his native Niger Delta abandoned him outright. He lost because the coalition that carried him to power in 2011 fractured at the edges while a united opposition front, the newly formed APC, consolidated everything Jonathan's PDP was bleeding. Tinubu's current trajectory carries an eerily similar shape, only the geography of the wound is different.

Tinubu's political base has always been the South-West, the Yoruba political establishment he built over two decades from Lagos outward. In 2023, that base delivered for him decisively. He dominated the South-west with about 2.28 million votes, representing roughly 53.6 percent of the zone's total valid votes, (Premium Times) and he won four of the six South-West states, taking Oyo, Ogun, Ondo and Ekiti. That regional wall was the foundation everything else was built on.

That wall now has a crack in it. Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde's declaration for the 2027 presidential race is not a peripheral irritation. Analysts note that Makinde's emergence could fracture the Yoruba political consensus that helped the APC dominate the South-West in 2023, and that his candidacy could particularly resonate among urban youths, professionals and middle-class voters frustrated by the economic hardship that followed the fuel subsidy removal and the naira float. This is precisely the Jonathan pattern: an incumbent's home region beginning to hedge just as the incumbent needs it most.

The Jonathan comparison deepens when you look north. Jonathan's undoing was accelerated by a northern political establishment that felt shut out and mobilized hard against him. Tinubu now faces a version of that same grievance, except this time it is coming from the region that actually elected him.

Northern voters delivered the bulk of his mandate in 2023, yet commentary from within that establishment has turned sharply critical. Columnist Farooq Kperogi's widely discussed piece captured the sentiment bluntly, arguing that Tinubu has governed as though only the Southwest voted him into power, despite the North delivering 63.6 percent of his votes against the Southwest's 25.9 percent.

That is not a fringe complaint. It is the same "we delivered you and you forgot us" grievance that hollowed out Jonathan's northern support in the run-up to 2015.
Where the parallel gets more interesting is the South-East, which was never Tinubu's base but which he has worked hard to court. Endorsements have poured in from groups like the South East Renewed Hope Agenda, which has committed ₦200 million toward purchasing the APC presidential nomination form and campaign logistics for Tinubu's 2027 bid, and traditional rulers who have pledged at least 70 percent of the region's votes.

But that top-down enthusiasm sits uneasily against grassroots skepticism. Critics inside the region insist the administration has not delivered enough to earn that loyalty, with one civil society figure declaring flatly that the South-East will not vote for APC or for Tinubu. Add Peter Obi's continued pull in the zone, and the endorsements from above look less like a settled bloc and more like elite consensus straining against popular mood, again, a very Jonathan-era dynamic where governors and traditional structures pledged loyalty that did not fully translate into votes.

What may save Tinubu, ironically, is the very thing that eventually failed Jonathan's opponents in reverse: opposition fragmentation. In 2015, the APC succeeded because it unified. Ahead of 2027, the anti-Tinubu forces look far less coordinated. With Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and now Makinde all circles the same opposition space, observers point out that this fragmentation bears an uncomfortable resemblance to past Nigerian elections where incumbents survived less on popularity and more because their challengers failed to unite around one platform.

Makinde's entry, in particular, could siphon votes from both Atiku and Obi, especially within PDP structures and the South-West opposition base, effectively neutralizing the very threat his candidacy represents to Tinubu's home turf.

The picture, then, is one of an incumbent whose base is softening in multiple directions at once, the South-West through Makinde, the North through the exclusion grievance, the South-East through unmet expectations, while his opponents remain too scattered to convert that softening into a coordinated challenge. That was not quite Jonathan's story in full. Jonathan's coalition did eventually face a unified opponent, and it cost him the presidency.

Whether Tinubu's opposition manages to replicate that unification before 2027, or whether it splinters the way it did in 2023, will likely determine whether this parallel to Jonathan ends the same way, or whether Tinubu becomes the exception who survived a wobbling base because no one else could get their act together first.

Mustapha Bature Sallama.
Medical/ Science Communicator,
Private Investigator, Criminal investigation and Intelligence Analysis.
International Conflict Management and Peace Building.USIP
mustysallama@gmail.com
+233-555-275-880

Sources:
"Can NDC zoning presidency to South affect Tinubu's re-election bid?" Premium Times, May 19, 2026 https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/880732-can-ndc-zoning-presidency-to-south-affect-tinubus-re-election-bid.html

"Tinubu faces 2027 pushback as opposition targets strongholds," The Guardian (Nigeria), May 18, 2026 https://guardian.ng/politics/tinubu-faces-2027-pushback-as-opposition-targets-strongholds/

"2027: South East group raises N200m to buy APC presidential form for Tinubu," Vanguard, July 28, 2025 https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/07/2027-south-east-group-raises-n200m-to-buy-apc-presidential-form-for-tinubu/

"Tinubu's 2027 Re-Election: South-East Challenges Ahead!" Mcebiscoo, January 10, 2026 https://mcebiscoo.com/tinubus-2027-re-election-south-east-challenges-ahead/

"2027: Fragmented opposition opens re-election path for Tinubu," Business Hallmark, May 18, 2026 https://hallmarknews.com/2027-fragmented-opposition-opens-re-election-path-for-tinubu/

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