Our next president will come from NDC, no chance for NPP in 2028 – Martin Kpebu
Private legal practitioner Martin Kpebu has predicted that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) will retain power in the 2028 general elections, arguing that the party's strong electoral performance in 2024 makes it highly improbable for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) to return to government after just one term in opposition.
Mr Kpebu made the remarks in an interview with the media while commenting on calls for a presidential pardon for NPP Ashanti Regional Chairman Bernard Antwi-Boasiako, popularly known as Chairman Wontumi, who was sentenced to 20 years' imprisonment with hard labour over illegal mining (galamsey).
“I believe it will be an NDC administration [that pardons him],” he said. “The next president will be from NDC, absolutely. The chances are very high.”
Explaining his prediction, Mr Kpebu said it was based on electoral data and historical voting trends rather than mere speculation.
He noted that the NDC had overturned a significant electoral deficit from the 2020 elections to secure a commanding victory in 2024.
“The last election, the NDC came from a deficit of about 540,000 votes. The 2020 elections John Mahama lost by between 500,000 and 540,000 votes, and in 2024, he made up for that deficit and won by about 1.7 million. It means that about 2.1 million citizens more voted for JM,” he explained.
“With that, you can't have 2.1 million citizens leave the NDC in an election within four years - maybe half of them - but you can't get all of them to desert the NDC and go and vote for NPP within four years. It'd be extremely extraordinary. It takes longer, by about eight years,” he added.
Mr Kpebu also rejected claims that voter apathy among NPP supporters was a major factor behind the party's defeat in the 2024 elections.
According to him, even if all those supporters had turned out to vote, the outcome would not have changed.
According to him, even if those numbers were to vote, “there's no chance for the NPP” in the 2028 elections.
He further described the argument that voter apathy accounted for the NPP's loss as “a paper analysis” and “just a sweet story”, suggesting it was an attempt to rationalise the party's heavy defeat at the polls.
On the future leadership of the NDC, Mr Kpebu identified three personalities he believes are well-positioned to succeed President John Dramani Mahama as the party's next presidential candidate.
He named National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah as the leading contender, followed by Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu and Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Baah Forson, explaining that his assessment was based on their political experience.