IEA report flags critical minerals risks as France steps up its strategy
In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, published on 16 July, the Paris-based agency said investment in mining and refining dropped by nine percent last year, citing geopolitical tensions and price volatility.
At the same time, supply chains have become more concentrated, with China and Indonesia accounting for more than three-quarters of growth in refined output over the past two years.
“Concerns about high supply concentration have moved from a theoretical vulnerability into an immediate economic security challenge,” said the IEA's chief economist Tim Gould.
The report highlights the growing use of export controls, particularly by China, as a key risk.
Restrictions on rare earth exports introduced in April 2025 forced some manufacturers to scale back or halt production.
The IEA estimates that if Beijing expands such measures, as much as $6.5 trillion in annual downstream production outside China could be exposed. A mining/crushing supervisor at MP Materials displays crushed ore before it is sent to the mill at the MP Materials rare earth mine in Mountain Pass
Despite these vulnerabilities, the agency noted some progress. Public financing commitments for critical minerals projects more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, while countries including the United States and Malaysia have begun to erode China's dominance in rare earth refining.
Yet the overall picture remains one of fragile supply chains at a time when demand is surging, driven by clean energy technologies, electric vehicles and advanced electronics.
Central challenge
For France, these global trends may cause problems: the country's industrial ambitions depend heavily on materials whose supply remains largely external.
France's €500 million critical minerals strategy, launched in 2023 under the France 2030 investment plan, is designed to reduce that dependence. It targets 26 raw materials deemed essential for industrial sovereignty, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements and semiconductor inputs such as gallium and germanium.
At the heart of the strategy is an effort to build domestic extraction and processing capacity. The Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), France's geological survey agency, has identified lithium-rich geothermal brines in the Alsace region as the country's most promising domestic resource. An employee walk in the open-pit mine at the lithium plant of French multinational industrial minerals company Imerys in Echassierres, central France, on January 17, 2024. Minerals group Imerys has undertaken the Emili project, aimed at extracting lithium at its Beauvoir site to help Europe limit its dependence on China.
Several projects are now under development. Lithium de France, backed by TotalEnergies and Renault, aims to produce 34,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide annually by 2028 using direct extraction technology. A parallel initiative, known as Emili, and developed by French industrial minerals company Imerys, targets production from 2027.
Europe's largest lithium mine to open in France
If successful, these projects would make France one of the first European countries with domestic lithium output, offering a strategic advantage for its emerging battery industry.
France is also seeking to strengthen its position in processing. In Normandy, the company Carester is developing a rare earth separation facility capable of supplying materials for up to 300,000 electric vehicle motors per year. The move addresses a critical bottleneck, as China currently processes around 85 to 90 percent of global rare earths.
'Urban mine'
Meanwhile, Paris-based mining multinational Eramet plays a central role in securing upstream supply. Its operations span manganese in Gabon, nickel in New Caledonia and lithium in Argentina. The company is also investing in refining capacity in France, notably in Dunkirk, where it produces high-purity manganese for battery cathodes.
However, volatility in global commodity markets illustrates the risks involved. The sharp drop in nickel prices, driven by increased Indonesian production, has put pressure on operations in New Caledonia, prompting French government support to maintain the sector.
Beyond extraction and processing, France is investing in recycling as a strategic pillar. Companies such as Veolia, SUEZ and Eramet are developing facilities to recover lithium, cobalt and nickel from end-of-life batteries, seen as a future European “urban mine,” shorthand for the process of recovering valuable metals from manufactured products that have reached the end of their useful life, rather than extracting them from natural deposits.
(With newswires)