Marine Le Pen's presidential ambitions hinge on appeal court ruling
Le Pen appealed a March 2025 conviction that found her and other members of the far right National Rally party guilty of misusing European Parliament funds by paying party staff with money intended for EU parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016.
The lower court sentenced her to four years in prison, suspended pending appeal, and imposed a five-year ban on her holding elected office.
Le Pen, who has denied any wrongdoing, still hopes to mount a fourth presidential bid, but whether or not she can do so depends on the appeal court's ruling.
Her lawyer, Rodolphe Bosselut, told the three-judge panel his client “is entrusting you with her life's work, and the question is thus whether it will end here or whether it can be rebuilt.”
Cleared of all charges
The court could clear Le Pen of all charges, clearing the way for her to declare candidacy. She has said that she will announce her intention the same day as the verdict, possibly during an interview on TF1 television's evening news, where she is scheduled to appear.
Prosecutors could still challenge an acquittal in an appeal to the Court of Cassation, France's highest court, which has said that, if asked to review the case, it would aim to issue a ruling before the presidential election in April 2027.
Alternatively, the appeal court could uphold Le Pen's conviction, but reduce her sentence, imposing a ban holding office of two years or less, or no ban at all.
In that case, because the lower court ordered the ban to take immediate effect, on 31 March 2025, it would expire before the first round of election.
Reduced sentence
Even if the ban were lifted, Le Pen could still choose not to run, if she were subject to a prison sentence electronic monitoring, and she has suggested she would do this.
“If I am allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that would not be possible,” Le Pen told LCI television on Wednesday.
"I cannot be dependent on a judge to authorise me to go hold a campaign rally... or to visit a market.”
If the appeal court upholds the whole sentence, Le Pen could take the case to the Court of Cassation, although it is unclear whether it would suspend the sentence pending a final ruling.
Stepping aside
Le Pen has said she would rather step aside to avoid any uncertainty that could jeapordise her party's chances of winning the election.
If she decides not to run, or is barred from doing so, current party president Jordan Bardella, her long-time protégé, is expected to become the party's candidate.
The two appeared together on Saturday at a party gathering in Liévin, northern France, in a display of unity.
"If the courts prevent me from standing in the presidential election, then it is with great energy, great conviction and great confidence that I will support him, of course,” Le Pen said.
Preparing all possibilities
Their political opponents are preparing to face whichever of the two leads the National Rally into the election.
“You don't chose your opponents, you fight them,” government spokesperson Maud Bregeon told Franceinfo on Monday.
“I fight the National Rally of Jordan Bardella, of Marine Le Pen and of all of its elected representatives, because I believe they are pursuing an extremely dangerous project that would suffocate the country – a project that narrows horizons, that isolates, whoever leads.”
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, who is leading the polls as the frontrunner against the National Rally, has taken the same position.
On the left, hard-left France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Melenchon said Sunday he was convinced he could “eliminate” the National Rally, perhaps even in the first round of the election, whether the candidate was Le Pen or Bardella.