Cocoa Growth Slows Sharply in Q1 2026 After Last Year’s Big Rebound
Ghana’s cocoa sector expanded again in the first quarter of 2026 — but at a much slower pace than the strong rebound seen a year earlier, raising fresh concerns about the sustainability of the industry’s recovery.
Provisional GDP figures from the Ghana Statistical Service show cocoa output grew 3.8% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, a steep drop from the 23.1% surge recorded in the same period of 2025.
The slowdown also weakened cocoa’s contribution to overall economic growth. The crop added 0.9 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1 2026, down from 5.0 percentage points a year earlier, even as its share of the economy edged up from 1.4% to 1.9%.
The data suggests the industry has entered a more moderate growth phase after bouncing back strongly in 2025 from a severe slump in 2024, when cocoa production contracted for four consecutive quarters — with declines of 27.1%, 21.4%, 29.9% and 12.8%.
Growth rebounded sharply in 2025, rising 23.1% in Q1, 14.2% in Q2 and 28.1% in Q3, before easing to 3.0% in Q4 and 3.8% in the opening quarter of 2026.
The moderation in cocoa output also contributed to a broader slowdown in the agriculture sector, which grew 4.0% in Q1 2026 compared with 6.6% a year earlier. Crop production expanded 4.7%, down from 6.7%, while forestry rebounded strongly to offset a sharp contraction in fishing.
Agriculture remained a major pillar of the economy, contributing 13.5% to overall GDP growth and accounting for 21.4% of GDP in the quarter. But cocoa is no longer delivering the outsized boost that lifted the sector last year.
Meanwhile, cocoa prices on the international market have rebounded, with futures climbing back to nearly US$5,000 per tonne after dipping below US$4,000 earlier this year.
— CitiNewsRoom