The empty Nigeria: What a catastrophe!
Nigeria, Africa`s biggest country, has over 242 million people. Citizens depend heavily on oil and gas sales. Around 80% of the state budget comes from the sale of oil and gas. Scientists estimate that in 59 years, the oil and gas wells will run dry. Deep-water oil wells will be very expensive to explore in light of the world's decision to reduce fossil fuel use. The UN estimates that by 2080, Nigeria will have a staggering population of 458 million. Due to traditional effects and seeing children as the only reliable social net, not systems like in Europe or Asia.
Nigeria`s aging President and his successors seem not to understand the urgency to radically change the economy of the nation. Entrenched in party politics, a vision which will be carried through to success is not insight. Greedy party politicians think from election to election to win power over state funds and contracts. Fighting corruption and mismanagement is an annual toothless ritual for the electorate to be seen as relevant and working to win the next election.
The fundamental change of a society takes time, not the lifetime of any democratically elected leader or the fight of political parties to eat at the table of the state budget. In Nigeria, neither on the federal nor state level, visionary leaders can be spotted who have the power to see a great vision through the ups and downs of a society. Words and manifestos are often mistaken for visions. Loud politicians shining glossy on social media platforms and in newspapers or on TV sets are heroes for simple-minded voters and citizens due to a lack of political understanding, and they enjoy the praises of their people.
While the Arabs rule as dynasties, ensuring their decisions today see their grandchildren of tomorrow still occupying the same throne, African politicians will be gone long ago, seeing their governance as a glimpse of what they were supposed to achieve. Nigeria currently is unable to feed all its citizens and give most a decent life. In sixty years from now, when the population of Nigeria will have almost doubled, and oil and gas will no longer contribute to the state budget, what will possibly happen? Climate Change will increase food prices, and the fight for the last African minerals will be in full swing, seeing friends today being rivals of tomorrow. Developed countries will run for the last resources Africa has to offer, increasing tensions across the political divide, as well as severe tensions on the European continent, as much as between Europe and the USA.
Nigeria is unable to provide basic living conditions for all its people, making them engage in drug deals or become illegal migrants. How much drier will this situation become when the population has doubled, and the oil and gas revenues no longer hit the nation? Neither political parties nor politicians have ideas for products and services. They are mandated to set the framework in which entrepreneurs can thrive to create sustainable jobs for others and themselves. When citizens are financially independent and living an exposed life to exchange ideas with others from far about the possibilities of life, they become critical of their leaders. Leaders prefer citizens who follow their words and ideas without being questioned or challenged.
Like other African countries, Nigerian President and politicians do not and will not set out a vision and plan to foster entrepreneurship as done in California. California, if a single state, would be richer than some national economies combined. Unlike Ghana, Nigeria is a very competitive market with fierce competition. This does not relate to the masses and the chance for all citizens to make it great in life. The much-needed infrastructure, like free schools and universities, and access for anyone with talent, not with a connection, to achieve academic excellence at renowned universities or being funded via Venture Capital Funds set up by the state of Nigeria, as well as private entities, is nowhere to be found on a massive scale.
As of now, the white democratic elected leaders of Europe, Asia, South America and the USA are content with the current situation, seeing their plans to exploit Africa for their nation's good play out well, have no interest in changing course. Like African democratic elected leaders, they leave the problem and solution in the hands of future political leaders. When a problem hits a nation head on to avoid casualties is hard to avoid. Seeing a problem fast approaching is the starting point to change and divert the course of the country and its economy to come out even stronger in the face of the massive problem visible today or in the time of tomorrow.
The UK, for the past ten years, has seen six Prime Ministers. They enter Downing Street Number 10 on a glorious sunny day with a shining star above their heads, worshipped by their followers, yet when the time comes, they all confess how wonderful it was to have served the country. When times in democracy get tougher and tougher, leaders will be changed like underpants turned bloody and dirty.
The massive problems of Nigeria in 2080 and the inactivity of today`s politicians in Abuja, as well as around the world, long before, have questioned the relevance of democracy and called for new leadership systems.
PD Dipl.-Pol. Karl-Heinz Heerde (Political Scientist and Historian, Hamburg University 1980-1985), married to Alberta Heerde born Mensah, Ashanti from Kumasi with Ewe roots from Volta Region, Ghana, Entrepreneur and Author of several novels, the new constitution draft for Ghana and various Articles.
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