Can Africa’s Free Trade Dream Survive Its Security Crises?

In recent years, intra-African trade has gained renewed attention amid rising protectionism in Western economies and growing calls for Africa to deepen regional economic integration. At the center of this ambition is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), one of the world’s largest free trade initiatives by membership and geographic scope.

The AfCFTA seeks to accelerate socioeconomic development, reduce poverty, and make African economies more competitive globally. By reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and promoting the free movement of goods and services, the agreement aims to create a single African market of more than 1.4 billion people.

The economic logic behind the agreement is compelling. Africa possesses vast natural resources, a young and growing population, and increasing digital connectivity. Together, these advantages could support industrialization, expand regional value chains, and strengthen Africa’s position in global trade. Yet much of this promise remains unrealized.

While protectionist tendencies in some member states, notably South Africa and Nigeria, continue to impede trade liberalization, the more immediate threats to the AfCFTA are terrorism, political instability, armed conflict, and border insecurity.

The ongoing war in Sudan and the worsening terrorist insurgencies across the Sahel are disrupting critical transport corridors and threatening the free movement of people and goods that underpins the AfCFTA project. The dangers posed by insecurity in the Sahel were recently illustrated by attacks on Ghanaian tomato traders in Burkina Faso, which reportedly left several traders dead or injured and prompted Ghanaian authorities to caution traders against operating in parts of the region.

Equally troubling are the recurring xenophobic attacks in South Africa. These attacks undermine regional integration by threatening the very principle of African mobility upon which the AfCFTA depends. Violence targeting African migrants over accusations of “taking local jobs” risks damaging diplomatic relations and weakening confidence in cross-border investment and commerce.

More concerning is the growing securitization of anti-immigrant sentiment. Organized community patrol groups, sometimes receiving rhetorical support from local political figures, have reportedly begun demanding documentation from foreign Africans. Such developments are increasing tensions across the continent. Some African governments have responded with retaliatory rhetoric and economic measures against South African businesses, while others have appealed to the African Union to intervene.

These developments expose a central contradiction within the AfCFTA project: economic integration cannot flourish where insecurity, political instability, and social hostility undermine the free movement of people, goods, and capital.

Nevertheless, the AfCFTA can still succeed if African governments focus on its foundational objectives rather than treating the agreement as merely a symbolic political achievement. Member states must commit to eliminating both tariff and non-tariff barriers, improving border infrastructure, strengthening regional transport and security cooperation, and fostering industrialization that creates jobs across the continent.

Economic inclusion is also critical. High unemployment, weak state capacity, and competition over limited economic opportunities are fueling resentment against migrants in some countries. Expanding intra-African trade and industrial growth could help reduce these pressures by creating broader economic opportunities for African citizens themselves.

Ultimately, the success of the AfCFTA will depend not only on trade policy but also on whether African states can provide the political stability, security, and social solidarity necessary for continental integration. A free trade area cannot function effectively where borders are insecure, transport corridors are unsafe, and Africans increasingly view one another as economic threats rather than partners in development.

Shaibu A. Gariba
https://www.linkedin.com/in/shaibu-gariba/

Email: shaibu.gariba@gmail.com

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