BJP Rising Next Door: Why Bangladesh Can’t Ignore It”

On May 4, 2026, the 15-year reign of Mamata Banerjee officially came to an end, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in West Bengal for the first time after India’s independence. Based on Populism, the BJP secured 208 seats, surpassing the 148 required to form a government. Not able to preserve Women's vote bank; through Special Intensive Revision (SIR) cut off about 90 lakhs voters; Corruption, maladministration, unemployment and administrative failure; polarisation of Hindu-Muslim, and not getting enough facilities as a ruling power trigger the failure of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. Along with West Bengal, in Assam, the BJP-led coalition is supposed to form the government again, which sparked serious concern for Bangladesh. As Bangladesh shares most of its border with West Bengal and Assam, it is inevitable to care about the political surge over there. So, the key question is how Bangladesh will be affected by the change of power in West Bengal, and how it will address and navigate those challenges.

Despite her opposition to the Teesta agreement, people on this side may still feel sympathetic toward Mamata due to her strong stance against communalism and her empathy for those who have lost their voting rights as a result of the SIR. Among 31 states in India, the Central BJP led 10 provinces directly. But the BJP could not hold on to power for 15 years in West Bengal despite being in power. So it has led to an existential threat in West Bengal to come into power. Finally, they are going to form a government for the very first time. Consequently, the newly formed Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP) led government in Bangladesh feels the multifaceted challenges to deal with its largest border-sharing neighbour. During the election period, Assam’s Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, in a televised interview, made a striking claim about how individuals were allegedly forced across the border into Bangladesh under the cover of night. This sensational statement quickly spread across social media, sparking widespread debate and controversy. This BJP mandate political leader again came into power in Assam, which is certainly scary for Bangladesh, isn't it?

Since mid-November 2025, reports have claimed that more than 1,500 Bengali Muslims were forcibly pushed into Bangladesh by India’s Border Security Force, though such figures remain difficult to independently verify. In this context, analysts warn that the political dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party in regions like West Bengal and Assam could further intensify concerns over cross-border movements, with fears that individuals may increasingly be labelled as “Bangladeshi” and pushed across the border, potentially escalating tensions between the two countries.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has, over time, built a strong electoral base centred on Hindutva politics—an observation shared by a section of political analysts. As a result, concerns are being raised about the security and social standing of nearly 34 million Muslims living in West Bengal. In particular, the possibility of rising communal tensions in the context of political change cannot be ruled out.

There have already been allegations of sporadic incidents of violence, where homes, businesses, and places of worship belonging to the Muslim community have reportedly been attacked. Such a situation could also have implications for Bangladesh. Religion-based political groups—such as Jamaat-e-Islami and similar organisations—may seek to capitalise on the issue, potentially influencing domestic politics while also adding strain to Bangladesh–India relations. In particular, tensions over minority rights could escalate further, leading to increased diplomatic friction between the two countries.

There are also concerns that transboundary river water-sharing agreements may be negatively affected, including the Ganges Water Treaty, which is set to expire this December, and the Teesta water-sharing agreement, which previously remained unresolved following the intervention of former Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Rising tensions along the border are likely to have far-reaching consequences. Increased instability can create opportunities for smuggling and drug trafficking networks to expand, undermining law and order in border regions. At the same time, heightened security measures and uncertainty may disrupt cross-border trade, affecting local economies and livelihoods that depend on steady commercial exchange. If not managed carefully, these developments could strain bilateral relations and hinder regional stability. Hence, Bangladeshis’ reliance on India’s healthcare services is likely to face a more acute crisis due to newly emerging visa complications.

Moreover, Pressure on Bengali speakers—particularly Bengali-speaking Muslims—may intensify in the evolving political climate, raising concerns about their social security and cultural expression. Such pressures could gradually erode aspects of linguistic and cultural identity, leaving a deeper impact on the broader Bengali-speaking community. At the same time, these developments risk amplifying mistrust and polarisation across borders. If not carefully managed, the situation could contribute to growing political instability and further strain relations between the two countries due to uncertainty. Briefly, the main challenge of this newly formed government of Bangladesh is to maintain not only a diplomatic chain with the central government of India but also with the local West Bengal and Assam governments to avoid unassailable issues. Hopefully, Bangladesh will manage it smartly this time.

About the Author
Md. Al-Amin is an educator. He completed his post-graduation from the Department of International Relations at Rajshahi University,Bangladesh. His research interests are Diplomacy, Foreign policy, Border conflicts, and Security issues.

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